Summary
Super Micro Computer, Inc. investors have avoided getting hammered further, as I explained why its November lows have held on resiliently.
The market has turned its attention to Blackwell production ramp, diverting its attention from the company's delayed regulatory filings.
SMCI still faces a race to meet its compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements, suggesting the coast isn't clear yet.
Still, I present my case why the potential prospects of outperforming through 2026 suggests its valuation seems too cheap to ignore.
With a possible breakout move higher hovering over the horizon, SMCI investors might consider this an opportune time to double down.
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What a remarkable recovery for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) (“Supermicro”) stock since my pre-earnings update as I enunciated why risks of a further drawdown have already been contemplated in its valuation. Hence, I’m not a bit surprised with the almost 50% gain as I write this update, as buyers ignored the bearish prognosticators, although the all clear signal hasn’t been given yet.
While Supermicro management provided a somewhat mixed update at its recent fiscal second quarter FY 2025 prelim release, I believe investors are still awaiting with bated breath on whether the company can successfully file the delayed regulatory filings by February 25 to regain compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements.
Despite that, the fact that SMCI managed to hold its early February lows is likely indicative of accumulation and not distribution (increased selling intensity from strong hands to weak hands). I believe this is just what dip buyers have been looking for as we inch close to the filing deadline.
I believe SMCI management’s approach to offering constructive commentary for its business update is apt, focusing on the operational performance, while diverting the attention from the compliance matters. By doing so, it helps to rechannel optimism on its forward outlook, leveraging on $325B in AI hyperscaler CapEx forecasts for 2025.
I don’t think AI or semiconductor supply chain investors will need a reminder that DeepSeek (DEEPSEEK) has failed to stymie sentiments on building increasingly more capacity for Nvidia-based servers (NVDA). This is even as the possible risks of hyperscalers shifting more workloads toward higher cost-efficient custom chips could increase. Despite that, I believe these efforts serve to mitigate concentration risks with Nvidia, and not likely to supplant NVDA's dominance in the near to medium term.
Hence, the fact that Supermicro has started Nvidia’s Blackweill AI servers in full production corroborates the confidence in the GPU allocations from the Jensen Huang-led company. Yet, like typical product transitions, being first to market is critical, particularly for businesses like Supermicro’s where sustainable competitive moats are “temporal” at best, as it winds down its Hopper architecture leadership which served it well over the past two years.
Therefore, I believe the caution in Supermicro’s lowered guidance to a midpoint of $24.25B is justified and reasonable. This is especially true considering the production transition headwinds and also the more intense challenges it’s facing from rivals like Dell (DELL) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), as these companies arguably have a more well-established enterprise base.
As a result, I believe it has placed immense pressure on SMCI to justify its confidence in hitting $40B in revenue for FY 2026, representing a nearly 65% gain from FY 2025’s midpoint projections. The slowdown from FY 2024’s triple digit topline growth is clearly over, although a 60+% upside is still nothing to scoff at. The focus now will understandably be on how fast Supermicro can ramp up its allocations from Nvidia, while navigating the challenges to its gross margins, which could suffer further dilution as it winds down its Hopper sales.
In other words, the forward outlook isn’t by any means clear, and it seems to be mired with several daunting challenges, even if we assume that the company can file in time and regain compliance with Nasdaq successfully (which remains a big if for now). Hence, I believe the market will remain cagey and circumspect when assessing the forward guidance for Supermicro, as we look more than one FY out, given the potential to pull forward demand by the hyperscalers.
Hence, it will place increased pressure on SMCI and its rivals to ship as much as possible through CY2026, as the risks of a digestion phase could creep in subsequently. With that in mind, I reckon that it's increasingly vital for SMCI to diversify its exposure to tier two hyperscalers, enterprise customers, or even Sovereign AI opportunities. But, I must also caution that these prospects don’t (yet) offer quite a clear route to another $300B in CapEx investments in the next one or two years. Concerns over AI guardrails, funding, monetization opportunities, and IT budget reallocation will affect the cadence of adoption. The silver lining of having lower AI compute costs in driving broader adoption for application developers and downstream customers could spur renewed vigor in a new growth vector for SMCI. However, the trajectory of the profitability dynamics remain unclear for now.
Supermicro unveiled that it has priced and raised $700M in new convertible offerings, which, I believe, is necessary to support its near term capacity growth. In addition, the successful adjustment to the $1.7B in convertible senior notes (due 2029) suggests that institutional interest in Supermicro’s financial profile remains resilient, notwithstanding the snafu that has engulfed the company since November last year.
Furthermore, Wall Street analysts haven’t gone FOMO on Supermicro’s FY 2026 outlook yet, and the cautious posture is palpable. Based on the revised estimates, analysts expect SMCI to post just over $33B, well below the $40B target (18% off) that management has assured us that it has the confidence to achieve. However, I believe the skepticism by Wall Street is apt. I believe it’s unreasonable for us to give full confidence to SMCI’s growth profile, which could be worsened by the introduction of tariffs by President Trump, potentially hitting several corners of its supply chain (including chips). Hence, the concomitant impact on Supermicro’s free cash flow margins could take another unanticipated hit. Investors will be careful into just focusing on topline growth metrics, and will like want to see how the increased direct liquid cooled server ramp with the Blackwell servers could translate into meaningful margins accretion for the company through FY 2026.
SMCI price chart (weekly, medium-term) (TradingView)
I was initially very concerned about whether SMCI buyers could hold the pivotal November bottom, which is obviously a hugely important level to defend. It coincides with the 200-week moving average (purple line), so a failure to underpin that level will likely point to more downside ahead for investors to endure.
Then the report in early February highlighting that Supermicro is on its way to ramping up Blackwell production discernibly helped the stock find a higher support zone just above the $25 level. SMCI has since enjoyed a revival over the past two weeks.
With a forward PEG ratio of only 0.4, it's clear that SMCI isn’t expensive. However, cheap valuations aside, the focus should now be on whether:
It fully clears Nasdaq compliance to maintain its listing.
Sufficient liquidity to ramp up shipments to outcompete peers in production ramp.
Garner enough allocations from Nvidia against a stretched supply chain.
Can deftly diversify its global production base to navigate possible tariffs, although it’s also expected to hit its rivals, mitigating the inherent impact.
Successfully transitions to Blackwell fully and lifting margins as it scales, while winding down its exposure to Hopper.
Bolsters its gross margins from the lows in FY 2025, although we might not know until it finishes the entire fiscal year.
Given that the clarity into these headwinds and issues are expected to persist even if SMCI could regain Nasdaq compliance, I expect the stock to remain materially undervalued. Hence, investors expecting SMCI to regain the peak in achieved in early 2024 seems unrealistic, but it should not detract high conviction investors from betting on a breakout above the $50 level, potentially triggering a further recovery.
Rating; Maintain Buy.