谁该为经济衰退负责，拜登还是鲍威尔？

金十数据2022-06-02

拜登已将物价快速上涨的责任推给了美联储，但白宫可能还没有为接下来的事情做好准备。当中期选举年遇上高通胀肆虐时，最好的政治举措可能是将矛头推向央行。毕竟，稳定物价是他们重要的工作任务之一。不过，政府领导人可能会发现，抑制通胀的代价是经济衰退。目前尚不清楚他们是否准备好应对这一结果。随着欧洲、美洲和澳洲的物价正在以几十年最快的速度上涨，让央行官员们在没有政治压力的情况下继续他们的任务是合理的。至少在...

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抢菜抢菜抢菜
·2022-06-03
疫情之後是戰爭，戰爭之後是饑荒。強烈推薦邦吉BG
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Youn7276
·2022-06-03
Ok
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CSNeo
·2022-06-03
[財迷]
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践行定投
·2022-06-02
）
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里二外三
·2022-06-02
肯定是那個漲價去庫存的人負責了。
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crazybee1235
·2022-06-02
hi
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Woshidui
·2022-06-02
都不用，普通人承擔責任，付出代價
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阳光小韭
·2022-06-02
必須是拜登，因爲他是最高負責人[捂臉]
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Moss指出，原因在于，美联储主席应当会认识到自由发挥过程中所隐含的机遇和危险。潜台词是，你想如何紧缩经济政策都可以，但这是你的责任，你得对它负责。当然，虽然领导人希望通胀回落，但他们也喜欢强劲的劳动力市场，讨厌经济衰退。拜登是否会为因命令鲍威尔采取行动而付出最终代价？Moss对此持怀疑态度。鲍威尔可能也不想要经济衰退，但他已经敏锐地意识到全球经济正在走下坡路。人们不可避免地将他与1979年-1987年担任美联储主席的保罗•沃尔克相提并论。沃尔克以严重的经济衰退为代价阻止了通胀，并且他在里根执政期间也与里根有过令人不快的谈话。在11月的中期选举中，民意调查对于民主党人来说已经很糟糕了。经济增长放缓和就业市场降温并不会对此什么帮助。尽管沃尔克很英勇，但在当前情况下，他可能不是一个完美的类比。1980年代初期的世界相当受控制：冷战进行得很激烈，全球一半地区几乎没有资本市场。沃尔克在他这样做的时候以巨大的力量打击通胀，因为通货膨胀至少已经恶化了十年。美国银行全球经济学家伊桑哈里斯在最近的一份报告中写道，这与现在的情况无法相提并论：“世界现在最不需要的就是沃尔克规模的政策冲击。沃尔克或多或少地故意制造了现代历史上最大的衰退之一。这次不一样。”虽然央行对供应链瓶颈无能为力，但瓶颈可能已经达到顶峰，衡量通胀的一项关键指标可能会在年底前回落。拜登的言论也应该放在华盛顿当前更广泛的防御背景下去看待。本周早些时候，拜登为《华尔街日报》撰写了一篇关于他将如何遏制通胀的专栏文章。即将在周五发布的月度非农就业报告可能是通胀爆发前最具政治意义的经济报告。高级官员一直谨慎地表示，就业增长可能会放缓，而拜登将这种情况描述为“这是我们成功进入复苏的下一阶段的迹象”。现在似乎是纠正错误的好时机。美国财政部长耶伦（Janet Yellen）在接受CNN采访时表示，她去年错误地预测了物价上涨将是短暂的。而在鲍威尔之前担任美联储主席的耶伦则是一个很好的例子。2007-2009年全球金融危机之后，全球央行都因没有出现通胀而感到吃惊。实际上，并非每一个乐观的数字背后都隐藏着价格上涨。这使得从各个央行的政策制定者都专注于推动劳动力市场的升温。他们宣称更倾向于结果，而不是预测。如今的风险是，如果央行们需要等待通胀已经结束的明确和明确迹象，他们可能会错过扭转经济转向下行的机会。这可能会使他们不能不在未来降息更多次数。这种循环将不断重演下去。结果是，央行的独立性将是一种设定货币价格的有吸引力的方式，因为如果有需要，央行可以迅速采取行动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":617872943,"gmtCreate":1654215654485,"gmtModify":1676533179886,"author":{"id":"4094264306111180","authorId":"4094264306111180","name":"抢菜抢菜抢菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88e7e981b45f31b1e854316995c1089","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094264306111180","authorIdStr":"4094264306111180"},"htmlText":"疫情之後是戰爭，戰爭之後是饑荒。強烈推薦邦吉BG","listText":"疫情之後是戰爭，戰爭之後是饑荒。強烈推薦邦吉BG","text":"疫情之後是戰爭，戰爭之後是饑荒。強烈推薦邦吉BG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/617872943","repostId":1125287126,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9050201673,"gmtCreate":1654205790092,"gmtModify":1676535410003,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050201673","repostId":1125287126,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9050648500,"gmtCreate":1654191303000,"gmtModify":1676535409594,"author":{"id":"3582532713393731","authorId":"3582532713393731","name":"CSNeo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edfed0645bc1915131a193d511cf50f9","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582532713393731","authorIdStr":"3582532713393731"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050648500","repostId":1125287126,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":617851327,"gmtCreate":1654183804870,"gmtModify":1676533179241,"author":{"id":"3466933789489171","authorId":"3466933789489171","name":"践行定投","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e1613b0f6debf345c8bf55c000545a","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3466933789489171","authorIdStr":"3466933789489171"},"htmlText":"）","listText":"）","text":"）","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/617851327","repostId":1125287126,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":617825714,"gmtCreate":1654181325241,"gmtModify":1676533179101,"author":{"id":"3544518779726666","authorId":"3544518779726666","name":"里二外三","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544518779726666","authorIdStr":"3544518779726666"},"htmlText":"肯定是那個漲價去庫存的人負責了。","listText":"肯定是那個漲價去庫存的人負責了。","text":"肯定是那個漲價去庫存的人負責了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/617825714","repostId":1125287126,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9050695669,"gmtCreate":1654179895751,"gmtModify":1676535407717,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050695669","repostId":1125287126,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":617828396,"gmtCreate":1654179467217,"gmtModify":1676533178946,"author":{"id":"3537836688379034","authorId":"3537836688379034","name":"Woshidui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/713926b862e703789c8136667ca88922","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3537836688379034","authorIdStr":"3537836688379034"},"htmlText":"都不用，普通人承擔責任，付出代價","listText":"都不用，普通人承擔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