这届股民以为，破发就是天塌了

巨潮商业评论2021-07-02

如果有人在2001年向你推荐这样一只中概股：上市之后就破发、连续9个月跌破1美元、整个行业的商业逻辑都濒临崩塌，有同行股价从13美元一路跌到0.8美元，这家公司自己连商业模式还没搞得特别清楚……甚至，老板还是个刚30岁出头的小年轻。你可能会很想把手里的茶水泼到他脸上。但如果给当时的你开个天眼，告诉你这家公司从这一年开始，从0.5美元开始涨，一直涨到了2021年还在不断的冲破历史新高，累计涨幅...

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gxlzzzkJames
·2021-07-05
凡是不是獨角獸類的企業，茶、餐飲、食品類等等不屬於高科技沒有技術含量的企業上市IPO一律不要參與，大多數是上市掏錢，這些企業都把股民當韭菜了
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莱维Lionheart
·2021-07-05
就某些奶茶店，找托兒排隊，貨出了爲了讓顧客多排一會店門口好看就壓貨不給，拿到手冷飲都化了，還裝什麼高端好幾十一杯，賣得比隔壁星巴克貴服務沒有星巴克好，星巴克那麼多『慕名而來』的都不見得保證盈利，奶茶能盈利都見了鬼了。無非就是炒概念騙投資人的錢，變現了就跑路。
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ongbengtee
·2021-07-03
wow
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吉祥如意A
·2021-07-03
我會一直關注每日優鮮的，手裏的股也不想處理，因爲我很看好它啊
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我能行
·2021-07-03
散戶大多是盲目跟風，目光短淺，投機行爲比較嚴重，沒有真正能做到價值投資……
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阿拉丁不是灯
·2021-07-03
寫了這麼多字，你收的每日還是毒奶茶的公交費？
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晓茗
·2021-07-03
一派胡言，賣菜的賣茶的也配拿來和網易比嗎？
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幸运的乌龟
·2021-07-03
.kooomoolllpkllopkkm0o .
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人不如故ZM
·2021-07-03
文是好文，要是在我們這屆韭菜參與打新之前發出來就更有說服力了！現在發出來有爲某些人洗地的嫌疑啊！新韭菜們經歷被坑的過程很正常，但不要試圖掩蓋二級市場存在的某些陰暗的東西，客觀真實的表述就好。最後，祝我們這一屆韭菜茁壯成長！???
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53570b80
·2021-07-03
這屆股民[開心]
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3736c685
·2021-07-03
說的好，但這毫無意義！我現在不相信每日優鮮有盈利的機會，即使有，我也詛咒他倒閉！
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- 53570b80:
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  2021-07-03
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甜猫
·2021-07-03
?
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Jason822
·2021-07-03
Hi
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寂寞的生鱼片
·2021-07-03
韭菜割的如此理直氣壯，順帶埋汰這屆股民不行，難得的人才呀！
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天天呵呵呵
·2021-07-03
就用一個網易來做反證！這麼中概股有幾個能做到像巴菲特那樣，很多行爲只爲了股東的利益！這些中概股有幾個得到了巴菲特旗下保險公司的青睞！大部分從商業模式就是有問題的，你還想讓人長期持有？大股東自己都不願意，作爲小股東的散戶爲什麼要做接盤俠
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galaxy
·2021-07-03
好公司有，但肯定不多，甚至可以說佔極少數。大多數都是從原始股到新股撈一票就走的公司和股東，尤其在高估值的市場。重點不在破發，而在於股票發行的極度高估值，很恐怖。
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臭臭学炒股
·2021-07-03
這誰寫的？**不通總有人自以爲是想教別人做人
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虎虎端
·2021-07-02
與其說遭遇“全員被割”，還不如說這是參與各種短視、逐利套利遊戲所必須經歷的過程，是早晚會付出的代價。投資有風險，本該是每個二級市場參與者的常識；股票破發也不是天就塌了，因爲上市只是一個企業發展的節點而已。
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yingliwayne
·2021-07-02
那也是哦，現在股市都是故事
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天牛地熊
·2021-07-02
打新賠個底掉，百融雲還有機會嗎？在等你幾年，你行嗎
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上市从来不是企业发展皆大欢喜的终点，只能说是企业发展历程中的关键节点。\n\n2020年至今，中国新经济企业掀起了新一轮赴港、赴美上市热潮，几乎所有叫得上名字的未上市优秀公司，全都在筹划或已经登陆资本市场。\n对于任何一家企业来说，上市都是值得庆祝的。创业者按下按钮或者敲响钟声，股东、员工们的身价翻上几十、上百倍，再加上新股上市之后大多上涨——特别是国内A股，新股涨幅动辄翻倍以上。\nIPO在绝大多数人眼里是财富的盛宴，甚至是改变命运的收获。即便不能像拿着大比例期权的大佬们一样财富自由，起码参与打新，跟着“喝口汤”也是可以的。\n早年方正证券曾经有过一个广告片，讲的是一胖一瘦两个创业搭档在清扫办公室，新公司准备开业大吉。瘦子问胖子，公司准备干成什么样？\n胖子回答：上市。\n\n瘦子眼中带着迷惑、意外，又有些憧憬、崇拜的眼神看着胖的。随后，方正证券的Slogan缓缓说出。\n这个广告是迄今为止，中国商界对“上市”这件事描述最到位的视频之一（不仅局限于广告宣传），那种看似距离每个人都比较遥远，但又密切相关，好像是伸手就能够到的一个“终极目标”，又不敢相信能达成的复杂心态，被体现得淋漓尽致。整个视频没有提到财富，却明确给出了财富的最终形态：上市。\n但实际的情况远没有一部广告片那样简单。上市从来不是企业发展皆大欢喜的终点，只能说是企业发展历程中的关键节点。对发展空间仍然很大的新经济企业来说，甚至只能说是个新的起点。\n很多人无法接受破发，实际上就是在把企业上市视为发展的终点——打新一拥而上，试图收割企业发展的最终成果，而不是在一个关键节点上，通过投资于这家企业，作为股东参与到其长期成长里面去。\n02、新经济公司的发展过程充满变数\n\n 人们往往更重视风险投资对于企业发展的促进作用，却忽略二级市场能够给企业带来怎样的变化。\n\n短视的投资行为，来源于投资者自身追求短期利益的倾向。与此同时，也和投资领域长期的公关、宣传风向有关系。\n近些年，二级市场在投资界并不招人待见，动辄获得几十几百倍收益的天使投资、风险投资才是显学。人们往往更重视风险投资对于企业发展的促进作用，却忽略二级市场能够给企业带来怎样的变化。\nFacebook是一个比较典型的例子。在上市前就已是超级明星项目，2012年2月，Facebook上市融资50亿美元，上千名员工成为了亿万富翁。\n再加上在此之前，Facebook经过了五轮融资，投资者名单星光熠熠：彼得·蒂尔、霍夫曼、李嘉诚、微软、红杉、DST等等，总计约13亿美元。这些员工、早期投资者在上市后都将收获丰厚，并有机会在二级市场卖出股份套现。\n因为在一级市场上融资的名声太盛，以及被风投们抢出来的高估值，导致Facebook在真正上市的时候，投资者大多心态谨慎——上市第二天即破发，公司股价报收于34.03美元，较发行价38美元下降了11%，估值也从1000多亿美元下降到932亿美元，随后几个月的时间里更是一路下跌，股价腰斩。\n但后面的事情急速转变：一级市场投资形成的泡沫被挤出之后，Facebook股价快速反弹，其2013年第二财季营业收入同比大幅度增长，显示出互联网广告业务正逐渐成为了全球广告主的必选项。7月26日，财报利好刺激Facebook股价大涨29.57%，从此再也没有出现过趋势性的逆转，至今市值已经逼近万亿美元。\n\nFacebook股价表现（2012年5月至2014年5月）\n社会关系网络的护城河、明星CEO之类的正面因素，并没有阻止当时的华尔街基金经理们做空Facebook。市场对于Facebook能否形成稳定的商业模式，也就是能否赚钱持有高度怀疑的态度，直到这家公司亲自证明了自己可以做到。\n那些没有耐心等到Facebook完成商业模式蜕变的投资者，就很难参与到后面股价持续上涨的行情里。2013-2021，其涨幅约为10倍。\n这只是新经济企业上市后商业模式逐渐变化、成熟的一个缩影。也是二级市场投资，尤其是新经济公司的关注者值得去借鉴的历史。\n具体到本轮新经济企业——特别是中国的新经济企业密集上市，呈现出了几个明显的特征：\n1.互联网经济向纵深方向发展，进入到各个具体的垂直产业中去，如出行领域的滴滴出行、生鲜类的叮咚买菜、每日优鲜，化妆品领域的完美日记等等，其中不少都处于商业化的早期阶段，商业模式并未稳固；\n2.一级市场的风险资本参与度高。由于风险投资体系的成熟，以及对新经济模式的认可，风投大量参与到了企业发展的早期阶段，因此有迫切的上市（特别是海外上市）和套现需求，导致这些公司在上市之前估值太高，上市之后又会引起二级市场的谨慎；\n3.传统的互联网、移动互联网发展进入到成熟期，更新的新经济刚刚进入商业化的早期阶段，市场上对于新科技公司的估值出现了明显的分歧。例如目前谷歌的市盈率已经低至15倍左右，腾讯市盈率逼近25倍，已经低于很多传统产业的估值；但不少新经济企业上市后动辄几十倍市销率的估值——典型如Doordash、Snowflake、B站、拼多多等。从整体看，投资者的估值逻辑正处在一个相对混乱的阶段。\n这种大环境下风险与机遇同在。机遇指的是上市的这些企业，已经被风险投资者筛选过一遍了，大多数已经是行业中最优秀的企业，安全边际较高；\n风险则是，在上市前后，处于产业发展早期的企业需要完善自己的商业模式，和当年的Facebook一样，找到赚取利润的方式，以回馈投资者的投入和期待，在这个过程中，会有部分企业掉队甚至出现经营风险。\n以打新族为代表的一部分投资者，痴迷于资本市场的短期收益，但又困扰于市场的中长期不确定性，表现出了在贪婪与恐惧之间快速切换的“二重性”，实际上是对资本市场理解不够深入的一种表现。\n03、投资有风险，这是常识\n\n 这些九死一生的波澜壮阔，正是创业与投资的难度所在，也是魅力所在。\n\n每日优鲜和奈雪的茶，是引发本次关于破发讨论的核心。\n因入局早、前置仓模式而知名的每日优鲜，原本就处于商业模式摸索期的生鲜领域，因为商业模式的变化和变革，破发本来算不上太意外的事情。\n而发现了商业模式竞争压力的每日优鲜，也在上市之前进行了战略调整，将自己定义为“技术驱动的创新型社区零售企业”，在社区零售数字化方面进行了战略侧重。\n这种战略调整势必会引发企业经营管理、资本市场估值等多方面的变化，包括企业业务模式、经营目标、市场空间、估值体系等等。\n对于企业的经营来说，这个转型的逻辑是行得通的：与其去和财大气粗的兴盛优选、美团、拼多多进行贴身肉搏，不如利用已有的产业积累，发挥技术优势，进入“技术赋能”的蓝海市场。\n在二级市场的投资层面，如果对企业的战略变化缺乏敏感，而是“无差别打新”，显然是对每日优鲜的战略调整认识不够充分；打新出现亏损之后，又立刻转向另外一个极端，无视企业未来的发展空间，事前贪婪、事后恐惧，无疑是一种糟糕的投资心态。\n港美股的打新者们为这次破发事件专门发明了一个新词，叫“全员被割”，通过一个“被”字，凸显了自己在整个过程中的无辜。\n但资本市场从来都不是一个包赚不赔的地方，尤其是对于新经济的投资来说，风险阴影的笼罩从来都没有消散过。全球新经济的发展史，在二级市场基本是部一将功成万骨枯的血泪史，鸡犬升天的局面是极少数。\n从最早的美国铁路证券、债券开始，美国国内和欧洲的投资者积极参与美国铁路市场的投资，最终造成铁路过度竞争，运费降至难以想象的低价，大多数投资者血本无归的局面；\n\n美国铁路债券后期变得一文不值\n伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的某次股东会上，巴菲特拿出了一个写满了A到Z排序单词长长的名单，全都是上世纪汽车产业发展早期繁荣阶段，最终消失了的汽车品牌，巴菲特以此来警示对新兴车企的投资泡沫；\n到了2000年，互联网泡沫的出现和破裂更是给全球风险投资、二级市场参与者上了惨痛的一课，目前最成功的互联网公司、科技公司，无不是穿越了泡沫破裂的重压，发展至今成为巨头——华为、阿里巴巴、软银、腾讯、亚马逊等等。\n\n阿里和软银都是2000年互联网泡沫破灭的幸存者\n而这些九死一生的波澜壮阔，正是创业与投资的难度所在，也是魅力所在。\n把新经济的发展浪潮简化为打新游戏，未免太过于轻率。同时，这也辜负了互联网赋能实体产业，数字化改变世界的大时代。\n与其说遭遇“全员被割”，还不如说这是参与各种短视、逐利套利游戏所必须经历的过程，是早晚会付出的代价。投资有风险，本该是每个二级市场参与者的常识；股票破发也不是天就塌了，因为上市只是一个企业发展的节点而已。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":155535031,"gmtCreate":1625444274623,"gmtModify":1703741705329,"author":{"id":"3560304933017657","authorId":"3560304933017657","name":"gxlzzzkJames","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c255fce56753388104a6b43570c79f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560304933017657","authorIdStr":"3560304933017657"},"htmlText":"凡是不是獨角獸類的企業，茶、餐飲、食品類等等不屬於高科技沒有技術含量的企業上市IPO一律不要參與，大多數是上市掏錢，這些企業都把股民當韭菜了","listText":"凡是不是獨角獸類的企業，茶、餐飲、食品類等等不屬於高科技沒有技術含量的企業上市IPO一律不要參與，大多數是上市掏錢，這些企業都把股民當韭菜了","text":"凡是不是獨角獸類的企業，茶、餐飲、食品類等等不屬於高科技沒有技術含量的企業上市IPO一律不要參與，大多數是上市掏錢，這些企業都把股民當韭菜了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155535031","repostId":1125914096,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":155241201,"gmtCreate":1625442311503,"gmtModify":1703741641861,"author":{"id":"3583735837949679","authorId":"3583735837949679","name":"莱维Lionheart","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e63edbd5bdc40ea390ed45f7199708b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583735837949679","authorIdStr":"3583735837949679"},"htmlText":"就某些奶茶店，找托兒排隊，貨出了爲了讓顧客多排一會店門口好看就壓貨不給，拿到手冷飲都化了，還裝什麼高端好幾十一杯，賣得比隔壁星巴克貴服務沒有星巴克好，星巴克那麼多『慕名而來』的都不見得保證盈利，奶茶能盈利都見了鬼了。無非就是炒概念騙投資人的錢，變現了就跑路。","listText":"就某些奶茶店，找托兒排隊，貨出了爲了讓顧客多排一會店門口好看就壓貨不給，拿到手冷飲都化了，還裝什麼高端好幾十一杯，賣得比隔壁星巴克貴服務沒有星巴克好，星巴克那麼多『慕名而來』的都不見得保證盈利，奶茶能盈利都見了鬼了。無非就是炒概念騙投資人的錢，變現了就跑路。","text":"就某些奶茶店，找托兒排隊，貨出了爲了讓顧客多排一會店門口好看就壓貨不給，拿到手冷飲都化了，還裝什麼高端好幾十一杯，賣得比隔壁星巴克貴服務沒有星巴克好，星巴克那麼多『慕名而來』的都不見得保證盈利，奶茶能盈利都見了鬼了。無非就是炒概念騙投資人的錢，變現了就跑路。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155241201","repostId":1125914096,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":152889552,"gmtCreate":1625280704376,"gmtModify":1703739895465,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f97f330bce0a38b05fbca5bfa2d677a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152889552","repostId":1125914096,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":152172916,"gmtCreate":1625278547435,"gmtModify":1703739827982,"author":{"id":"3585303723885215","authorId":"3585303723885215","name":"吉祥如意A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d9bdf0861553251a28d53f227cd6ef7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585303723885215","authorIdStr":"3585303723885215"},"htmlText":"我會一直關注每日優鮮的，手裏的股也不想處理，因爲我很看好它啊","listText":"我會一直關注每日優鮮的，手裏的股也不想處理，因爲我很看好它啊","text":"我會一直關注每日優鮮的，手裏的股也不想處理，因爲我很看好它啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152172916","repostId":1125914096,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":152112450,"gmtCreate":1625275483170,"gmtModify":1703739744238,"author":{"id":"3585301688075606","authorId":"3585301688075606","name":"我能行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284932b11f0f40c52194a3947300b893","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585301688075606","authorIdStr":"35853016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