Central Banks Cannot Really Taper In This Slowdown

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Central Banks Cannot Really Taper In This Slowdown

zerohedge2021-08-25

Recent macroeconomic data from the United States should worry us. Amid the reopening and the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history, and with all the possible tailwinds from policy ...

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chonghow
·2021-08-25
Taper
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- YIPKF:
  Expecting
  2021-08-25
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cgtc78
·2021-08-25
Wow.. looks like Mr. Jerome can make his decision as easy as you.
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- ahleemama:
  my dog is called powell
  2021-08-25
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kaiboon
·2021-08-25
Like pls
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Hodl
·2021-08-25
[Grin]
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gtyx
·2021-08-25
Like please
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- Timz:
  Like
  2021-08-25
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Jaymand
·2021-08-25
Like pls
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If we take the typical difference between official and real data, we will see that, for example, gross capital formation has slowed down rapidly in 2021.\nThis is important because the entire recovery of the eurozone relies on fiscal and monetary impulse in addition to the European Recovery Fund.\nThe recovery of the euro area keeps some positive momentum simply because it is more delayed. The GDP of the euro area is still 4% below pre-pandemic levels (7% in the case of Spain) and employment is well below the levels of comparable economies, considering that we must add the workers in furloughed jobs that are still above six million while unemployment, at 7.1% estimated for August, is recovering slowly.\nThese data reinforce my view that central banks will maintain their ultra-expansionary policy with very modest changes. Tapering will likely be more cosmetic than real, and rates will remain low while, in the case of the euro area, negative. The fact that the Federal Reserve balance sheet has expanded further while officials talked about tapering reinforces this view.\nThe threat of an escalation of international tension after the Taliban coup in Afghanistan is added to the impact of the delta variant, which will be more evident in winter, as it happened in 2020.\nThe important thing is to understand that, from the investor point of view, we have probably passed the peak of recovery and the most cyclical sectors are already discounting the slowing momentum.\nThe unsustainable fiscal situation of developed countries makes a serious normalization of policy impossible. The ECB is the only buyer of Italian and Spanish debt, according to the IIF (Institute of International Finance), and this disguises an imminent risk but does not eliminate it.\nInflation, the great threat to the recovery, remains high and although some components have moderated, the most important factors for the average consumer, non-replicable goods, remain well above the levels of 2015.\nCentral banks are faced with the devil’s dilemma created by their own policy.\nEither let inflation run and create a stagflation problem or scare the markets by reducing purchases.\nThey will choose the first, without a doubt.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":837213614,"gmtCreate":1629892487438,"gmtModify":1676530163956,"author":{"id":"3584409171197644","authorId":"3584409171197644","name":"chonghow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034b5d3ebb843fd2877b0621b198e628","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3584409171197644","authorIdStr":"3584409171197644"},"htmlText":"Taper","listText":"Taper","text":"Taper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837213614","repostId":1126078997,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5644984,"gmtCreate":1629893166381,"gmtModify":1663232896743,"authorId":3579748162894863,"author":{"id":3579748162894863,"idStr":"3579748162894863","authorId":3579748162894863,"name":"YIPKF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb307b178e826c212e864c04e7018162","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":837213614,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Expecting","text":"Expecting","html":"Expecting"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837297722,"gmtCreate":1629891017066,"gmtModify":1676530163565,"author":{"id":"3577005976005407","authorId":"3577005976005407","name":"cgtc78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/520fe8221db3bf1f5743d4c42f1bdac3","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577005976005407","authorIdStr":"3577005976005407"},"htmlText":"Wow..&nbsp; looks like Mr. Jerome can make his decision as easy as you.&nbsp;","listText":"Wow..&nbsp; looks like Mr. Jerome can make his decision as easy as you.&nbsp;","text":"Wow.. looks like Mr. Jerome can make his decision as easy as you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837297722","repostId":1126078997,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5645353,"gmtCreate":1629895158564,"gmtModify":1663232897529,"authorId":3585830139314556,"author":{"id":3585830139314556,"idStr":"3585830139314556","authorId":3585830139314556,"name":"ahleemama","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5556ad29b085a364d6ea7d326015c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":837297722,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"my dog is called powell","text":"my dog is called powell","html":"my dog is called powell"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837209251,"gmtCreate":1629889164673,"gmtModify":1676530163142,"author":{"id":"3574165011010503","authorId":"3574165011010503","name":"kaiboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47210bc0bbca6cb9e977c2d4266b7274","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574165011010503","authorIdStr":"3574165011010503"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837209251","repostId":1126078997,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837672858,"gmtCreate":1629888657674,"gmtModify":1676530162898,"author":{"id":"3579666066637422","authorId":"3579666066637422","name":"Hodl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d591a82f579d3114da9795812a4217a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579666066637422","authorIdStr":"3579666066637422"},"htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837672858","repostId":1126078997,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837645034,"gmtCreate":1629887602128,"gmtModify":1676530162699,"author":{"id":"3582423245170611","authorId":"3582423245170611","name":"gtyx","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582423245170611","authorIdStr":"3582423245170611"},"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837645034","repostId":1126078997,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5644387,"gmtCreate":1629888535558,"gmtModify":1663232894345,"authorId":3571747705728957,"author":{"id":3571747705728957,"idStr":"3571747705728957","authorId":3571747705728957,"name":"Timz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e77b88776ef617e42d53d1b67fb8bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":837645034,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837628397,"gmtCreate":1629885324919,"gmtModify":1676530162081,"author":{"id":"3564142991914856","authorId":"3564142991914856","name":"Jaymand","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ef74d005aec91c36d540483cb5d0f1","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b75ce0c34afff716602792a5d0929dd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3564142991914856","authorIdStr":"3564142991914856"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837628397","repostId":1126078997,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":93,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}