On December 26th, commodities including gold, silver, and copper continued their "meteoric rise," once again setting new all-time highs. This exemplifies the recent collective strength seen in precious metals and non-ferrous metal-related products.
As of the time of writing, spot prices for London gold and silver surged to highs of $4,531.284 per ounce and $75.649 per ounce, respectively. Domestically, on the 26th, Shanghai gold and silver futures on the domestic market also reached record highs. The main Shanghai silver contract surged 6.60% during the session, hitting a peak of 18,658 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 18,319 yuan per kilogram. The main Shanghai gold contract rose to a high of 1,023.96 yuan per gram before closing at 1,016.30 yuan per gram, a gain of 0.75%.
Among non-ferrous metals, both domestic and international copper prices recently climbed to historic peaks. On the 26th, LME copper set a new record of $12,282 per ton. The main Shanghai copper futures contract also rose significantly by 3.6%, climbing steadily throughout the session before reaching a new all-time high of 99,730 yuan per ton late in the day, followed by a slight pullback.
Gu Fengda, Chief Analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that the core market contradiction currently reflects a multi-faceted resonance involving expectations for global liquidity easing, structural tightness in the supply and demand for strategic resources, and short-term speculative capital flows. However, it is crucial to recognize clearly that prices have significantly diverged from fundamentals in the short term, speculative sentiment is thick, and this, combined with overseas policy uncertainty and structural mismatches in globally deliverable inventories, can easily trigger abnormal market movements.
"Currently, capital is spreading from core long positions in gold, silver, and copper to a wider range of products, including related non-ferrous and precious metal sectors in the stock market, which are also experiencing considerable excitement. Yet, amidst the狂欢 (huānkuáng, revelry), it is necessary to maintain a degree of清醒 (qīngxǐng, sobriety)," Gu Fengda said.
Wang Yanqing, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at CITIC Securities Futures, also noted that, from a fundamental perspective, the factors influencing precious and non-ferrous metals have not changed significantly in the short term. While long-term bullish factors such as "de-dollarization" exist, the recent rapid and sharp price increase has clearly over-traded these long-term positives. The high level of speculative sentiment poses potential risks to the stable operation of the market.
Analyzing copper specifically, Wu Kunjin, Head of the Non-ferrous Metals Group at Minmetals Futures Research Center, explained that fundamentally, production at major overseas copper mines has been impacted by accidents more than expected. Since September, global copper ore supply forecasts have been continuously revised downwards, with the long-term treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrate in 2026 falling to historically low levels. Simultaneously, expectations of US copper tariffs are attracting global refined copper flows to the United States, tightening supply expectations for markets outside the US and fueling bullish sentiment. From a macro perspective, consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the resumption of US Treasury bond purchases have sparked expectations of looser liquidity, enhancing the enthusiasm of funds to take long positions. However, the magnitude of the short-term price increase has already been substantial.
Also on December 26th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued a risk warning, stating, "Given the recent complex and volatile international situation, and the significant fluctuations in non-ferrous and precious metal varieties, all relevant units are advised to take appropriate measures to remind investors to strengthen risk prevention, invest rationally, and jointly maintain stable market operations."
Concurrently, the SHFE issued a notice stating that, starting from the settlement after market close on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, the price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 15%. The margin requirement for hedging positions will be adjusted to 16%, and the margin requirement for speculative positions will be adjusted to 17%.
After trading resumes on Monday, January 5, 2026, and starting from the settlement after the first non-limit-up/-down trading day, the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements for gold futures contracts AU2601, AU2602, AU2603, AU2604 and silver futures contracts AG2601, AG2602, AG2603, AG2604 will remain unchanged. For all other futures contracts, the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements will revert to their previous levels.
"This move by the exchange is a precautionary response to the complex and volatile international market conditions around the year-end and beginning of the year, particularly during sensitive periods when liquidity could change abruptly. By implementing multiple measures to enhance market resilience, the aim is to prevent violent fluctuations that could be triggered by concentrated short-term capital inflows and outflows, and to guide investors towards rational participation," Gu Fengda commented.
Wang Yanqing also noted that the series of risk control measures introduced by the SHFE are intended to cool down market trading fervor, guide rational market participation, maintain stable and orderly market operations, and ensure the proper functioning of the market. At the same time, investors need to recognize that alongside the significant volatility in the futures market, the difficulty of trading and the associated risks are increasing substantially. Participation should be rational; blindly chasing prices during rallies should be avoided, positions must be strictly controlled, and risk management practices implemented to reduce the potential for losses.
For investors, Gu Fengda believes a dual strategy is necessary: maintain a strategic bullish mindset regarding the overall trend, but avoid chasing highs in actual operations. For core leading varieties like gold and copper, focus on opportunities to add positions during pullbacks from highs. For silver, platinum, and palladium, it's advisable to observe more and act less.
In Gu Fengda's view, the current market has entered a phase of "year-end portfolio adjustments and emotion-driven front-running." Risk management and position control are more critical than boldly predicting peaks and turning points. Protecting profits and controlling drawdowns are paramount. The key is to guard against potential globally linked risks that could arise from liquidity changes after overseas market holidays conclude.
