Orient Securities released a research report stating that China's excavator exports showed accelerated growth in November, reflecting improving industry conditions. The growth in export volume is primarily structural, indicating enhanced competitiveness of Chinese construction machinery, which is expected to boost export stability. The report also noted significant contributions from second-hand equipment exports, which are projected to improve domestic fleet utilization rates and support long-term healthy industry growth. The firm anticipates rising market expectations for sector-wide improvements, leading to lower risk assessments and benefiting mid-cap blue-chip investment opportunities. Key stocks mentioned include Hengli Hydraulics (601100.SH, not rated), Liugong (000528.SZ, not rated), Zoomlion (000157.SZ, buy), and XCMG (000425.SZ, not rated).
Key takeaways from Orient Securities: 1. **Export Growth Signals Rising Demand** Customs data shows China exported 27,752 crawler excavators in November 2025, totaling $872 million, up 52.36% and 26.67% YoY, respectively. The monthly export growth rate exceeded 50%, outpacing the 35% cumulative growth from January to November, indicating accelerating demand.
2. **Resilient Export Growth Despite Regional Variations** While exports to Brazil, Italy, and Vietnam surged over 100% MoM, shipments to the U.S., Indonesia, Russia, and Canada declined. Despite uneven demand across markets, China’s overall export growth remains robust, driven by strengthening global competitiveness in construction machinery.
3. **Second-Hand Equipment Exports Boost Utilization Rates** Customs-reported excavator exports (27,400 units Jan-Nov) significantly exceeded industry association figures (104,000 units), attributed to second-hand equipment exports. Large-scale exports of used machinery are expected to reduce domestic fleet sizes, stabilizing or improving utilization rates and fostering sustainable industry growth.
**Risks**: Macroeconomic volatility, high overseas interest rates dampening demand, escalating trade friction, and rising raw material costs impacting profitability.
