Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows

zerohedge2021-06-10

Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier... ... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...

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ppangsy
·2021-06-10
Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves
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- 叶子不会漂:
  oo
  2021-06-10
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Issacwilson
·2021-06-10
[驚訝]
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AT66
·2021-06-10
Oh oh
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AT66
·2021-06-10
Oh oh
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逢場作戲又一日
·2021-06-10
Overheating
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财神爷爷97
·2021-06-10
Good read
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- 财神爷爷97:
  ??
  2021-06-10
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Boink
·2021-06-10
CPI
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TohKokMeng79
·2021-06-10
Goldman
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2
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- 璇瑤:
  Latest
  2021-06-10
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- 叶子不会漂:
  oo
  2021-06-10
  Reply
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Chimpsey
·2021-06-10
Please reply when free.
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- HHTan:
  CommEnt. Please response And comment. thanKs
  2021-06-10
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poworb
·2021-06-10
Hmm
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SRT
·2021-06-10
Banks will never tell u the truth
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- KiroWinner:
  ReallY?
  2021-06-10
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JoelLee
·2021-06-10
Please like and reply! Thanks!
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4
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- BigMac8885:
  Thanks
  2021-06-10
  Reply
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- BigMac8885:
  Nice ! Pls help too
  2021-06-10
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- Chimpsey:
  Reply back please.
  2021-06-10
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Ahleepapa
·2021-06-10
LONG THE BONDS! HOLD it tight! LONG S&P 500!!!LONG CRUDE OIL!!!LONG LIVE THE KING!!!LONG EVERYTHING!!![Call] [Call] [Call]
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b1gman
·2021-06-10
help like and comment pls!:—)
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- teguh:
  nicee
  2021-06-11
  Reply
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- Ahleepapa:
  LONG LIVE AMERICA!
  2021-06-10
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YF2021
·2021-06-10
Okay
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- vivo8787:
  Thanks
  2021-06-10
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Hopehope赋予希望
·2021-06-10
Did Goldman just change its view 180 degrees? See my comments awhile back why I don't follow investment banks view. They are likely to be conflicted but this is great as it gives me time to acquire selected tech stocks when they were down over the last few months as part of my investments
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- samfernando:
  IBs have their P&L to achieve too.. They create noises in view that markets move their way... Like and comment pls
  2021-06-10
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All in Tesla
·2021-06-10
Take your bets now before you looked back and say didn’t buy when it was cheap ?‍♂️
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All in Tesla
·2021-06-10
Inflation will be temporary till 3rd quarter and willslow down.. that’s when stocks starts to pick up again no knowing what’s inflation fears all about!Take my word for it ?
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Alvintan87
·2021-06-10
Which means even if there is a squeeze, the economy will still be all right. No worries please buy more.
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- Ahleepapa:
  BUY BUY BUY!!!
  2021-06-10
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- Uday:
  Nothing is stopping us, just buy n buy
  2021-06-10
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vivo8787
·2021-06-10
So what will happen next?
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As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":183684252,"gmtCreate":1623328745176,"gmtModify":1704200976776,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","listText":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","text":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183684252","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4667155,"gmtCreate":1623328969156,"gmtModify":1663228368227,"authorId":3575534665342386,"author":{"id":3575534665342386,"authorId":3575534665342386,"name":"叶子不会漂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e4acdef1b881a56d0f3add87c5f754","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183684252,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>oo</u>","text":"<u>oo</u>","html":"<u>oo</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183685831,"gmtCreate":1623328652823,"gmtModify":1704200975324,"author":{"id":"3570851911602612","authorId":"3570851911602612","name":"Issacwilson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df3bb907663b44274ed934252dd7e68","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","listText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","text":"[驚訝]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183685831","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":183688210,"gmtCreate":1623328538930,"gmtModify":1704200971771,"author":{"id":"3568531063457300","authorId":"3568531063457300","name":"AT66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91701cd0393b6bb4e80d3594fe9dbdb0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Oh oh","listText":"Oh oh","text":"Oh oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183688210","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183681406,"gmtCreate":1623328510505,"gmtModify":1704200970640,"author":{"id":"3568531063457300","authorId":"3568531063457300","name":"AT66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91701cd0393b6bb4e80d3594fe9dbdb0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Oh oh","listText":"Oh oh","text":"Oh oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183681406","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183689057,"gmtCreate":1623328436979,"gmtModify":1704200966744,"author":{"id":"3555043402922696","authorId":"3555043402922696","name":"逢場作戲又一日","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a5fbf2ceb7c7ee0399d41e6348dadf7","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Overheating&nbsp;","listText":"Overheating&nbsp;","text":"Overheating","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183689057","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183680787,"gmtCreate":1623328434749,"gmtModify":1704200967552,"author":{"id":"3572418035699527","authorId":"3572418035699527","name":"财神爷爷97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb5096bb391a4364a255cfe900aece0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183680787","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4667034,"gmtCreate":1623328447813,"gmtModify":1663228367340,"authorId":3572418035699527,"author":{"id":3572418035699527,"authorId":3572418035699527,"name":"财神爷爷97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb5096bb391a4364a255cfe900aece0","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.14%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183680787,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"??","text":"??","html":"??"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183617575,"gmtCreate":1623328381697,"gmtModify":1704200964966,"author":{"id":"3584620238111631","authorId":"3584620238111631","name":"Boink","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c209643e8a7d239ba24db30470811841","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"CPI&nbsp;","listText":"CPI&nbsp;","text":"CPI","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183617575","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183617105,"gmtCreate":1623328373707,"gmtModify":1704200964321,"author":{"id":"3574312720176101","authorId":"3574312720176101","name":"TohKokMeng79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09aad76a158a443465cacafe0bebb97","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Goldman","listText":"Goldman","text":"Goldman","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183617105","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4669663,"gmtCreate":1623336576335,"gmtModify":1663228382842,"authorId":3576793170997774,"author":{"id":3576793170997774,"authorId":3576793170997774,"name":"璇瑤","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6835feab4172932a5b89786a7d2beb9a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183617105,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Latest</u>","text":"<u>Latest</u>","html":"<u>Latest</u>"},{"id":4667158,"gmtCreate":1623328975847,"gmtModify":1663228368555,"authorId":3575534665342386,"author":{"id":3575534665342386,"authorId":3575534665342386,"name":"叶子不会漂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e4acdef1b881a56d0f3add87c5f754","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183617105,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>oo</u>","text":"<u>oo</u>","html":"<u>oo</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183614808,"gmtCreate":1623328303704,"gmtModify":1704200963191,"author":{"id":"3578111487107537","authorId":"3578111487107537","name":"Chimpsey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab58cb989ba2205bb2646f1c4d97c579","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Please reply when free.&nbsp;","listText":"Please reply when free.&nbsp;","text":"Please reply when free.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183614808","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4667048,"gmtCreate":1623328532082,"gmtModify":1663228364138,"authorId":3582782817523238,"author":{"id":3582782817523238,"authorId":3582782817523238,"name":"HHTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8134085c63f43886300c1e18d3ab40c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183614808,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"CommEnt. Please response And comment. thanKs","text":"CommEnt. Please response And comment. thanKs","html":"CommEnt. Please response And comment. thanKs"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183612772,"gmtCreate":1623328187496,"gmtModify":1704200960927,"author":{"id":"3585789495202228","authorId":"3585789495202228","name":"poworb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0c7f322470251fc4ca32b11d191c166","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183612772","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183618615,"gmtCreate":1623328075437,"gmtModify":1704200957193,"author":{"id":"3581299219229724","authorId":"3581299219229724","name":"SRT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c4dbc9d7745f5494368eb3ffad10380","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Banks will never tell u the truth","listText":"Banks will never tell u the truth","text":"Banks will never tell u the truth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183618615","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4666981,"gmtCreate":1623328191025,"gmtModify":1663228364833,"authorId":3575075556890810,"author":{"id":3575075556890810,"authorId":3575075556890810,"name":"KiroWinner","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5b40a973a7d9012bd951b0214b71f1","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.27","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183618615,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ReallY?","text":"ReallY?","html":"ReallY?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183820124,"gmtCreate":1623322866368,"gmtModify":1704200855754,"author":{"id":"3579882572140125","authorId":"3579882572140125","name":"JoelLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f6c92b13d94cba61906c07dbbb2ab6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Please like and reply! Thanks!","listText":"Please like and reply! Thanks!","text":"Please like and reply! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183820124","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4667122,"gmtCreate":1623328796752,"gmtModify":1663228369251,"authorId":3579506230138289,"author":{"id":3579506230138289,"authorId":3579506230138289,"name":"BigMac8885","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183820124,"type":1,"supId":4666905,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks ","text":"Thanks ","html":"Thanks "},{"id":4666905,"gmtCreate":1623327828448,"gmtModify":1663228367541,"authorId":3579506230138289,"author":{"id":3579506230138289,"authorId":3579506230138289,"name":"BigMac8885","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183820124,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice ! Pls help too ","text":"Nice ! Pls help too ","html":"Nice ! Pls help too "},{"id":4667004,"gmtCreate":1623328282833,"gmtModify":1663228365643,"authorId":3578111487107537,"author":{"id":3578111487107537,"authorId":3578111487107537,"name":"Chimpsey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab58cb989ba2205bb2646f1c4d97c579","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183820124,"type":1,"supId":4666905,"prevId":0,"content":"Reply back please.","text":"Reply back please.","html":"Reply back please."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183881646,"gmtCreate":1623321495785,"gmtModify":1704200831755,"author":{"id":"3585038405943602","authorId":"3585038405943602","name":"Ahleepapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc1fea9c38112b58c68a2d96017330b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"LONG THE BONDS! HOLD it tight!&nbsp;LONG S&amp;P 500!!!LONG CRUDE OIL!!!LONG LIVE THE KING!!!LONG EVERYTHING!!![Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;","listText":"LONG THE BONDS! HOLD it tight!&nbsp;LONG S&amp;P 500!!!LONG CRUDE OIL!!!LONG LIVE THE KING!!!LONG EVERYTHING!!![Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;","text":"LONG THE BONDS! HOLD it tight! LONG S&P 500!!!LONG CRUDE OIL!!!LONG LIVE THE KING!!!LONG EVERYTHING!!![Call] [Call] [Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183881646","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183880272,"gmtCreate":1623321274796,"gmtModify":1704200827673,"author":{"id":"3583748261189325","authorId":"3583748261189325","name":"b1gman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1489bd78edf55795eddbec4fca6280","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"help like and comment pls!:—)","listText":"help like and comment pls!:—)","text":"help like and comment pls!:—)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183880272","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4677637,"gmtCreate":1623378316834,"gmtModify":1663228421231,"authorId":3586028403626607,"author":{"id":3586028403626607,"authorId":3586028403626607,"name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183880272,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>nicee</u>","text":"<u>nicee</u>","html":"<u>nicee</u>"},{"id":4665809,"gmtCreate":1623321524072,"gmtModify":1663228361946,"authorId":3585038405943602,"author":{"id":3585038405943602,"authorId":3585038405943602,"name":"Ahleepapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc1fea9c38112b58c68a2d96017330b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183880272,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"LONG LIVE AMERICA!","text":"LONG LIVE AMERICA!","html":"LONG LIVE AMERICA!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183818101,"gmtCreate":1623320702903,"gmtModify":1704200818227,"author":{"id":"3577175459019385","authorId":"3577175459019385","name":"YF2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09409a56cf2590d7bd39108c557d662","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183818101","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4668165,"gmtCreate":1623332581648,"gmtModify":1663228375050,"authorId":3581711485322302,"author":{"id":3581711485322302,"authorId":3581711485322302,"name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183818101,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183813874,"gmtCreate":1623320542598,"gmtModify":1704200815617,"author":{"id":"3563421686188310","authorId":"3563421686188310","name":"Hopehope赋予希望","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46495f44529967f5d3b4d03a47167f5b","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Did Goldman just change its view 180 degrees? See my comments awhile back why I don't follow investment banks view. They are likely to be conflicted but this is great as it gives me time to acquire selected tech stocks when they were down over the last few months as part of my investments","listText":"Did Goldman just change its view 180 degrees? See my comments awhile back why I don't follow investment banks view. They are likely to be conflicted but this is great as it gives me time to acquire selected tech stocks when they were down over the last few months as part of my investments","text":"Did Goldman just change its view 180 degrees? See my comments awhile back why I don't follow investment banks view. They are likely to be conflicted but this is great as it gives me time to acquire selected tech stocks when they were down over the last few months as part of my investments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183813874","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4666961,"gmtCreate":1623328126097,"gmtModify":1663228366244,"authorId":3577774343761638,"author":{"id":3577774343761638,"authorId":3577774343761638,"name":"samfernando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0364524ada7527bd96fee8e8676450a","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183813874,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"IBs have their P&amp;L to achieve too.. They create noises in view that markets move their way... Like and comment <u>pls</u>","text":"IBs have their P&amp;L to achieve too.. They create noises in view that markets move their way... Like and comment <u>pls</u>","html":"IBs have their P&amp;L to achieve too.. They create noises in view that markets move their way... Like and comment <u>pls</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183834413,"gmtCreate":1623320263732,"gmtModify":1704200810362,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","name":"All in Tesla","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8db11f6e6a9a2a52850e734188850dc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Take your bets now before you looked back and say didn’t buy when it was cheap ?‍♂️","listText":"Take your bets now before you looked back and say didn’t buy when it was cheap ?‍♂️","text":"Take your bets now before you looked back and say didn’t buy when it was cheap ?‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183834413","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183835235,"gmtCreate":1623320200027,"gmtModify":1704200808583,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","name":"All in Tesla","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8db11f6e6a9a2a52850e734188850dc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Inflation will be temporary till 3rd quarter and willslow down.. that’s when stocks starts to pick up again no knowing what’s inflation fears all about!Take my word for it ?","listText":"Inflation will be temporary till 3rd quarter and willslow down.. that’s when stocks starts to pick up again no knowing what’s inflation fears all about!Take my word for it ?","text":"Inflation will be temporary till 3rd quarter and willslow down.. that’s when stocks starts to pick up again no knowing what’s inflation fears all about!Take my word for it ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183835235","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183833654,"gmtCreate":1623319818878,"gmtModify":1704200800437,"author":{"id":"3583709486658119","authorId":"3583709486658119","name":"Alvintan87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9da6ab80c4944c1124d32097859ced9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Which means even if there is a squeeze, the economy will still be all right. No worries please buy more.","listText":"Which means even if there is a squeeze, the economy will still be all right. No worries please buy more.","text":"Which means even if there is a squeeze, the economy will still be all right. No worries please buy more.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183833654","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4665817,"gmtCreate":1623321574641,"gmtModify":1663228362044,"authorId":3585038405943602,"author":{"id":3585038405943602,"authorId":3585038405943602,"name":"Ahleepapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc1fea9c38112b58c68a2d96017330b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183833654,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"BUY BUY BUY!!!","text":"BUY BUY BUY!!!","html":"BUY BUY BUY!!!"},{"id":4665887,"gmtCreate":1623322140078,"gmtModify":1663228361948,"authorId":3564927108798920,"author":{"id":3564927108798920,"authorId":3564927108798920,"name":"Uday","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba94e30caea713924bb15494e571fb48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183833654,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nothing is stopping us, just buy n buy","text":"Nothing is stopping us, just buy n buy","html":"Nothing is stopping us, just buy n buy"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":183897239,"gmtCreate":1623319681421,"gmtModify":1704200796708,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"So what will happen next?&nbsp;","listText":"So what will happen next?&nbsp;","text":"So what will happen next?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183897239","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":115,"commentSize":46,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}