Meta Platforms, Inc. is set to release its Q2 2025 financial results on July 30 after the US market closes.
Analysts expect Meta's Q2 revenue to be $44.8 billion, up 14.7% year-on-year.
Earnings per share is expected to grow 14% YoY to $5.88. Net income is expected to be $15.14 billion, up 12.4% from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg's unanimous expectations.
Three Things to Watch in 2Q
1. Ad-Pricing Growth Pressured by Tariff Uncertainty, Chinese Ad Pull-Back
Meta's $180+ billion ad business remains the cash machine funding everything else. Meta's ad impressions and pricing could see some pressure amid a spending pullback among Chinese advertisers in the US due to tariffs and changes to the de minimis rule. Ad pricing growth may taper sequentially by 200-300 bps, which can curb any near-term sales and margin revision.
The good news is that AI-powered ad tools are working, with 30% adoption driving a 5% boost in Reels conversions. Revenue per user hit $49.63 (+11.28% YoY), proving Meta can still squeeze more from its user base.
However, ad load is approaching limits across Instagram and Facebook. ARPU growth increasingly relies on pricing power rather than volume. Asia-Pacific disappointed in Q1 ($8.22B vs $8.42B expected) as Chinese exporters pulled back amid tariff fears.
2. Capex Guidance May Surpass $69 Billion in 2025 as LLM Training Continues to Grow
The company is likely to raise capital spending views as CEO Mark Zuckerberg aims to build multi-gigawatt clusters for its Superintelligence Labs, for which the company has made several big acqui-hires to bolster its Llamamodel's reasoning capabilities.
Deutsche Bank forecasts Meta's capital expenditures to be maintained at $69 billion (an 85% year-on-year increase) for fiscal year 2025, approaching the higher end of the guidance range. However, Deutsche Bank emphasizes that investors must beware of the risk of uncontrolled costs.
Meta may see a lift to free cash flow from the taxt reatment of its R&D and capex under the recentlypassed tax and spending legislation.
3. Meta May Pare Reality Labs Spending Amid AI Ramp- Up
Management could trim Reality Labs spending in the wake of growing adoption of its LLM for both enterprise and consumeruse cases.
Reality Labs burns $4 billion quarterly with no profitability in sight. Critics see Zuckerberg's expensive hobby. But context matters.
With $96 billion in operating cash flow, Meta can afford big bets. The metaverse vision has evolved beyond VR headsets to owning the next computing platform, AR glasses, neural interfaces, or something unimaginable.
Analysts’ Opinions
Meta’s PT Lifted to $750 by Morgan Stanley Ahead of Earnings
On July 21, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak raised the price target on the stock to $750.00 (from $650.00) while keeping an “Overweight” rating. The rating affirmation comes as the firm increased its estimates across the internet space, reflecting on a favorable macro environment and lower China tariffs.
Morgan Stanley identified two factors critical for Meta’s second-half 2025 performance: results that give the market confidence in a path toward at least $30 of 2026 earnings per share, and the launch of next-generation Llama models with potential reasoning capabilities.
Deutsche Bank expects Meta's ad revenue growth in the second quarter
Deutsche Bank expects Meta's advertising revenue growth in the second quarter to increase by 1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by AI-powered Advantage+ as the core driver, and it will continue to grow in the future.
At the same time, AI capital expenditure pressure is immense, with a fiscal year 2025 expense guidance maintained at 113-118 billion USD, and it may even increase in the second half of the year. Even if savings are made, the funds will be reinvested in data centers rather than returned to investors.