5月或是整个市场的转折点：美联储的“天敌”来了！

华尔街见闻2021-05-13

作者：乐鸣引子在刚过去不久的美联储“放鸽子”会上，鲍威尔被问到两个尴尬的问题：现在通胀预期看起来上得很猛，万一通胀比就业先达标了，你咋办？你咋那么有信心这次通胀不会失控？不会像上世纪70年代一样？对于这两个问题，鲍威尔都不太高兴，因为问到了尴尬的痛点。如今痛点开始在数据上显现：5月12日周三晚8点半，美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。数据显示，不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI，4月份增速都创出...

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Comment（11）

Daniel_bao
·2021-05-14
做作業。。。。。哈哈哈
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ERIC2020520
·2021-05-14
加息
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- 或白:
  加息让世界收割美元吗，
  2021-05-15
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ReO
·2021-05-13
?
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刀锋战士阿尔法
·2021-05-13
哎喲喂、哎喲喂、哎喲喂！捱了打的揹着一個沒捱打的！
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Zongzi_xin
·2021-05-13
關注一下。。。。
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4
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- Daniel_bao:
  嗯，同关注
  2021-05-14
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- Daniel_bao:
  同关注
  2021-05-13
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经常被切韭菜
·2021-05-13
4月非農數據大幅下滑而cpi 漲幅驚人，美國人都在家拿援助那麼開心，幹嘛還去工作呢？那不去工作誰來生產啊？供需不平衡導致物價上漲這不是很正常嗎？還有你看看人民幣兌美元匯率，貨物能不貴嗎？而貿易逆差繼續增長，還有之前特朗普加的稅，都是美國人民在埋單，你沒看最近新聞中美貿易要開談了嗎？證明拜登已經意識到問題所在，只要解決貿易戰，增加人民工作，CPI就要下降了，要不再把美元迴流提高利率CPI也能下降啊。
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- 或白:
  特朗普是要美国制造业回流，增加就业机会，
  2021-05-15
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- 经常被切韭菜:
  这没可能做到，第一成本太高了，太贵了本国人也未必会买，第二条件太好了，不愿加班或者干这么累的活，第三工会就会搞死当地企业，通用就是一个例子。制造业回流只是一个政治题材
  2021-05-15
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- kevinz:
  我也觉得不是问题，挺正常的经济现象，美国也完全可以解决。这都是预料中的吧
  2021-05-14
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goog
·2021-05-13
美聯儲嚯嚯美元太久了，這個王炸要玩廢了
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- kevinz:
  不会。
  2021-05-14
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风雪腊梅
·2021-05-13
?
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汤头
·2021-05-13
聽聽就好，真的準那無腦做空不百分百賺錢...
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- 或白:
  是啊，就像周五做空的估计就剩裤衩了，来回收割
  2021-05-15
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tianyang1234
·2021-05-13
[微笑]
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- tianyang1234:
  [微笑]
  2021-05-13
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龙疼虎乐
·2021-05-13
大膽預測[噴血] [噴血] 我看看是否準啊?
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coming!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547d7ca3cd61e4510bbbc845a4b9d4d9","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：乐鸣引子在刚过去不久的美联储“放鸽子”会上，鲍威尔被问到两个尴尬的问题：现在通胀预期看起来上得很猛，万一通胀比就业先达标了，你咋办？你咋那么有信心这次通胀不会失控？不会像上世纪70年代一样？对于这两个问题，鲍威尔都不太高兴，因为问到了尴尬的痛点。如今痛点开始在数据上显现：5月12日周三晚8点半，美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。数据显示，不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI，4月份增速都创出惊人记录。其中，美国4月整体CPI同比大增4.2%（市场预期3.6%），增速创2008年9月以来新高；4月核心CPI同比大增3%，创1996年1月以来最大增长。奔5%的通胀，可不是长期通胀平均2%可以忍受的，除非下个月就下来，表示这是“虚惊一场”，但是下个月大幅下滑的可能性目前看来不大。市场通过价格也传达了这一预期：2022年升息的可能性，在数据公布后已经高达100%。这反过来意味着，刚刚因为就业数据大幅不及预期而推迟的缩减QE时间，又再次被提前。这种被左右拉扯不知如何是好的感觉有点似曾相识，也是美联储最害怕的情景：通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？市场开始不信美联储的说辞了早在今天数据公布之前，市场已经对美联储所谓长期通胀保持2%的说辞表示出了怀疑态度。纽约联邦储备银行公布的4月消费者调查（相当于美联储的“民调”）显示：随着经济从疫情引发的危机中复苏，美国消费者未来一年通胀的预期中值为3.4%，创2013年9月以来最高水平。对未来三年通胀的预期维持在3.1%不变。之所以美联储这么在乎通胀“民调”，是因为通胀最可怕的一点就是形成“民众共识”后螺旋上升。对于通胀的预期，可以粗略分成三个层次：1． 市场上金融产品所隐含的通胀预期；2．所谓经济学家们“共识”预测的通胀预（这两个层基本上跟美联储的预测是一致的）3． 民众的真实通胀预期。第三个层次决定了通胀自我实现的特点。如果经过了一段时间相对高的通胀（很可能高于2%），让美国工人认为生活成本提高了，需要加工资；让厂商认为需要提价才能应对更高的工资和各种成本，那通胀最终从2%+冲上5%，甚至是70年代的10%+都不是没有可能的。实际上，上一次美国CPI高达4.2%的时候，美联储的利率高达20%——正是70年代的滞胀时期。滞胀！？滞胀是美联储最害怕的“天敌”——在滞胀出现时，美联储政策就会失去主动权，进入完全被动状态。因为在这种情况下，美联储收紧政策，虽然可以控制通胀，但是经济受不了；但是如果放松政策救经济，通胀就上天了——左右不是人，无解；只能硬抗，让时间来慢慢消化，像70年代一样。虽然一个月的数据在理论上只是加剧了市场担心，不至于产生恐慌——毕竟去年4月份的美国确实是通缩状态，美联储所说的基数效应确实存在。图：去年4月美国通缩得厉害如果，五月数据可以回落到让市场可以接受的3%左右，那通胀预期还“有得救”；但如果下个月还维持4%左右，那美联储很可能需要赶紧“放鹰”，控制一下通胀预期。另外，就业方面虽然4月非农数据非常不理想(17.5199,-0.26,-1.46%)，但是有望在5月出现大幅改观，详见：拜登“觉醒”！5月美国就业可以破百万么？。意味着什么本次数据虽然令人震惊，但是仍属于“一次性”的性质——市场概率根据最新情况进行调整是非常正常的，100%加息概率也不代表一定发生，因为距离2022年底还有很长时间，中间还有很多数据会再次更改概率。尽管如此，这仍会让5月份数据变成一个“决胜点”。首先，去年5月份美国经济已经摆脱通缩，其通胀读数跟2020年剩下的月份差距不大，如果5月通胀再次高达4%左右，就不能再说是基数问题了——这时候美联储需要“表示表示”，否则通胀很有可能进入“自我实现”通道。另外，不管5月就业好还是不好，都已经“无所谓”了：好就表明通胀压力更大；不好说明滞胀越来越近了——怎么样对市场而言都是坏消息。这就是为什么美联储现在开始反复强调，就业现在需要盯住劳动参与率，因为不仅失业率数据“失灵了”，就连非农数据现在都不太好使了。5月或是整个市场的转折点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":198130416,"gmtCreate":1620944887635,"gmtModify":1704350750563,"author":{"id":"3582075602912414","authorId":"3582075602912414","name":"Daniel_bao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013e1ddf403635b11f90f297ca14f63f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582075602912414","authorIdStr":"3582075602912414"},"htmlText":"做作業。。。。。哈哈哈","listText":"做作業。。。。。哈哈哈","text":"做作業。。。。。哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198130416","repostId":1129245857,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198341177,"gmtCreate":1620938637899,"gmtModify":1704350701494,"author":{"id":"3553231417553161","authorId":"3553231417553161","name":"ERIC2020520","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb088dbd0225aaa433f6d2eb54db7ced","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3553231417553161","authorIdStr":"3553231417553161"},"htmlText":"加息","listText":"加息","text":"加息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198341177","repostId":1129245857,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4336489,"gmtCreate":1621073177576,"gmtModify":1680788944947,"authorId":3520924686142735,"author":{"id":3520924686142735,"idStr":"3520924686142735","authorId":3520924686142735,"name":"或白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/783195a87794184cb529969f595d3aaf","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198341177,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"加息让世界收割美元吗，","text":"加息让世界收割美元吗，","html":"加息让世界收割美元吗，"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198952670,"gmtCreate":1620920597790,"gmtModify":1704350564738,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198952670","repostId":1129245857,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":198988484,"gmtCreate":1620918563748,"gmtModify":1704350522265,"author":{"id":"3460110757345179","authorId":"3460110757345179","name":"刀锋战士阿尔法","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b42e712665aa340c451811db44011a24","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3460110757345179","authorIdStr":"3460110757345179"},"htmlText":"哎喲喂、哎喲喂、哎喲喂！捱了打的揹着一個沒捱打的！","listText":"哎喲喂、哎喲喂、哎喲喂！捱了打的揹着一個沒捱打的！","text":"哎喲喂、哎喲喂、哎喲喂！捱了打的揹着一個沒捱打的！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198988484","repostId":1129245857,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198991225,"gmtCreate":1620916876967,"gmtModify":1704350479427,"author":{"id":"3582886189119499","authorId":"3582886189119499","name":"Zongzi_xin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c64ded7a73c4b69648caff1c81d5683","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582886189119499","authorIdStr":"3582886189119499"},"htmlText":"關注一下。。。。","listText":"關注一下。。。。","text":"關注一下。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198991225","repostId":1129245857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