Gold markets experienced a sharp decline last week, with international gold prices falling significantly as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and comments from the Federal Reserve Chair suggesting potential rate hikes fueled a major sell-off. Traders now assign a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by late October, with a possible additional hike in December. These bearish factors drove gold down over $500 for the week, pushing prices back toward the 30-week moving average support level. Increased selling pressure suggests a potential phase of sideways consolidation or further declines. A break below the key support at $4,300 could lead to a drop toward $3,800, while a recovery above the $5,000 mark would be needed to resume the bull market.
In terms of price action, gold opened the week lower at $4,999.11 per ounce, consolidated after initial losses, and recorded a weekly high of $5,044.02. However, prices then fell sharply, breaking through multiple key support levels. By Friday, gold hit a weekly low of $4,477.42 before closing at $4,503.13. The weekly trading range was $566.82, and the closing price represented a decline of $521.45, or 10.38%, from the previous week's close of $5,024.58.
Looking ahead to Monday, March 23, international gold opened lower but showed some strength, while the U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices opened higher but weakened, creating a contrasting dynamic. Ongoing escalation in the Middle East, including threats from former U.S. President Trump toward Iranian power plants and Iran's presentation of six conditions to end the war alongside its clarification of Strait of Hormuz transit rules—stating it is not fully blockaded—eased some inflation concerns. However, Trump's demand for Iran to open the Strait within 48 hours or face destruction of power plants, and Iran's warning of four countermeasures including a full closure of the Strait if attacked, indicate that geopolitical risks remain elevated.
With market expectations for Fed rate hikes now outweighing those for rate cuts, supportive factors for gold are limited. Technically, key support levels have been breached, suggesting near-term weakness and the risk of further declines.
Fundamentally, elevated oil prices, a strong U.S. dollar, high inflation expectations, and rising odds of Fed rate hikes are weighing on gold. For the first time, U.S. interest rate futures imply a greater likelihood of a rate hike by the end of 2026 than a cut. The combination of surging global inflation expectations, a repricing of the interest rate path, and a contest between the dollar's safe-haven appeal and gold's hedging role has kept gold under pressure.
Although Fed Governor Bowman still projects three rate cuts in 2026, and Governor Waller has indicated that weaker employment data could lead him to support rate cuts later this year—while dismissing the need for hikes—these dovish signals have failed to convince traders, who continue to price in higher odds of tightening.
Geopolitical tensions are currently benefiting oil as a hedge rather than gold, driving crude prices higher, reinforcing inflation expectations, reducing the likelihood of Fed easing, and thereby pressuring gold. In this environment, gold continues to face selling pressure.
Over the longer term, however, persistent inflation could mirror the 2020–2022 period, when oil surged from below zero to $129.40 per barrel and U.S. inflation rose from 1.23% to 8%, prompting the Fed to implement seven aggressive rate hikes. After a period of wide-ranging adjustment, gold eventually resumed its upward trend. Similarly, between July 2007 and August 2008, oil prices doubled from $70 to $140 per barrel amid the emerging subprime crisis, and gold eventually climbed higher after a correction, extending its bull run. Thus, the current adjustment may represent the beginning of another bullish cycle.
Potential re-entry points for gold are near $4,380 and $3,800.
On a monthly chart, gold remains weak, erasing February's gains and approaching a full retracement of January's advance. A bearish engulfing pattern suggests a possible top, with a test of the rising trendline near $4,350—broken in January—likely. Holding above this level would support further gains in the coming years; a breakdown could lead to a bearish decline toward $3,500 or even $3,000.
On the weekly chart, last week's sharp decline pushed gold below the middle Bollinger Band, with failure to reclaim the 5- and 10-week moving averages indicating increased bearish momentum. A further test of the 30-week moving average near $4,350 or $4,260 is possible, with the middle band now acting as resistance.
On the daily chart, Friday's decline broke below the 100-day moving average, turning previous support into resistance. Selling on rallies is favored intraday, with near-term targets at support levels near $4,380 and $4,310.
Intraday trading guidance will be provided based on live market conditions.
Preliminary intraday trading levels for reference—exact entry and exit points subject to real-time updates: Gold: Support near $4,300 or $4,100; resistance near $4,570 or $4,650. Silver: Support near $64.00 or $60.65; resistance near $70.70 or $72.10.
