Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln

seekingalpha2021-04-12

Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...

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Mm101
·2021-04-21
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- Wandakdash:
  Song y y
  2021-04-22
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- Mm101:
  Like comment
  2021-04-22
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- Mm101:
  Wow
  2021-04-21
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KSONG
·2021-04-18
Like n comment pls
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- Mm101:
  Yes
  2021-04-21
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mootaromama
·2021-04-14
Who intends to hoot once it starts trading? Now priced at $250. Worth it? Share your thoughts!
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2
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- Mm101:
  Nice
  2021-04-21
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DenDenBear
·2021-04-14
Reply and like thanks
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allycat
·2021-04-14
Promising enough for u to invest?
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LydiaCCW
·2021-04-13
[得意]
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- Mm101:
  Likenice
  2021-04-21
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LeeKim
·2021-04-13
Pls like and comment ??
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- Saintrade:
  Ok
  2021-04-14
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XMTX
·2021-04-13
Oof
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3
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Wallstrtbets
·2021-04-13
No binance?
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3
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ming22
·2021-04-13
[思考]
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Unicorn82
·2021-04-13
Nice
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Limpc88
·2021-04-13
How do we get into the ipo?
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2
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ZCZC
·2021-04-13
[看漲] [看漲]
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Targarean
·2021-04-13
Am I the only one who thinks there is too much hype about crypto?!
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YH17
·2021-04-13
[微笑] [開心] ..change...
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nctony
·2021-04-13
First day IPO will be very expensive
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- ShafiqMazlan:
  And it will only get more expensive if you wait
  2021-04-13
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- Edmunda:
  yes
  2021-04-13
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lebronyuan
·2021-04-13
great
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EELNOMIS
·2021-04-13
Buy! Buy! Buy!
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Kiteflying
·2021-04-12
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NanOo
·2021-04-12
So the ticker is COIN ? Anybody buying ?
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First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":371757961,"gmtCreate":1618974693453,"gmtModify":1704717735430,"author":{"id":"3565081661382277","authorId":"3565081661382277","name":"Mm101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01758aa877d9e5a9767d24de3a4e2ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565081661382277","authorIdStr":"3565081661382277"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371757961","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4100006,"gmtCreate":1619062093530,"gmtModify":1680785069730,"authorId":3558569595001242,"author":{"id":3558569595001242,"idStr":"3558569595001242","authorId":3558569595001242,"name":"Wandakdash","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/211ec3a66712c46a80ca45e20dbbd8a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":371757961,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Song y y ","text":"Song y y ","html":"Song y y "},{"id":4100203,"gmtCreate":1619063889166,"gmtModify":1680785066728,"authorId":3565081661382277,"author":{"id":3565081661382277,"idStr":"3565081661382277","authorId":3565081661382277,"name":"Mm101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01758aa877d9e5a9767d24de3a4e2ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":371757961,"type":1,"supId":4100006,"prevId":0,"content":"Like comment","text":"Like comment","html":"Like comment"},{"id":4089890,"gmtCreate":1618974709410,"gmtModify":1680784908602,"authorId":3565081661382277,"author":{"id":3565081661382277,"idStr":"3565081661382277","authorId":3565081661382277,"name":"Mm101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01758aa877d9e5a9767d24de3a4e2ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":371757961,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Wow","text":"Wow","html":"Wow"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":379277655,"gmtCreate":1618754986377,"gmtModify":1704714610367,"author":{"id":"3573608981633568","authorId":"3573608981633568","name":"KSONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cac42cab0c725d4b65ec3d804892fc9","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573608981633568","authorIdStr":"3573608981633568"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379277655","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4089891,"gmtCreate":1618974716425,"gmtModify":1680784910786,"authorId":3565081661382277,"author":{"id":3565081661382277,"idStr":"3565081661382277","authorId":3565081661382277,"name":"Mm101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01758aa877d9e5a9767d24de3a4e2ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":379277655,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344635056,"gmtCreate":1618404858175,"gmtModify":1704710275727,"author":{"id":"3580330414173534","authorId":"3580330414173534","name":"mootaromama","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb145c21debe1e80b416fb6027863fd5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580330414173534","authorIdStr":"3580330414173534"},"htmlText":"Who intends to hoot once it starts trading? Now priced at $250. Worth it? Share your thoughts!","listText":"Who intends to hoot once it starts trading? Now priced at $250. Worth it? Share your thoughts!","text":"Who intends to hoot once it starts trading? Now priced at $250. Worth it? Share your thoughts!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344635056","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4089894,"gmtCreate":1618974725690,"gmtModify":1680784908767,"authorId":3565081661382277,"author":{"id":3565081661382277,"idStr":"3565081661382277","authorId":3565081661382277,"name":"Mm101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01758aa877d9e5a9767d24de3a4e2ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":344635056,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344340952,"gmtCreate":1618380246776,"gmtModify":1704709925926,"author":{"id":"3576147606699436","authorId":"3576147606699436","name":"DenDenBear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e983ba302bc271159224fa4bb390e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576147606699436","authorIdStr":"3576147606699436"},"htmlText":"Reply and like thanks","listText":"Reply and like thanks","text":"Reply and like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344340952","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344363470,"gmtCreate":1618376945590,"gmtModify":1704709889023,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"htmlText":"Promising enough for u to invest?","listText":"Promising enough for u to invest?","text":"Promising enough for u to invest?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344363470","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345296519,"gmtCreate":1618316208731,"gmtModify":1704709013684,"author":{"id":"3572347610151765","authorId":"3572347610151765","name":"LydiaCCW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8694b074926ea7e2c7c338478893a9d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572347610151765","authorIdStr":"3572347610151765"},"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345296519","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4089898,"gmtCreate":1618974741125,"gmtModify":1680784907568,"authorId":3565081661382277,"author":{"id":3565081661382277,"idStr":"3565081661382277","authorId":3565081661382277,"name":"Mm101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01758aa877d9e5a9767d24de3a4e2ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":345296519,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Likenice","text":"Likenice","html":"Likenice"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":345671908,"gmtCreate":1618313995504,"gmtModify":1704708982359,"author":{"id":"3577157753646357","authorId":"3577157753646357","name":"LeeKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19732b3147dce26211e57be67792bc00","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577157753646357","authorIdStr":"3577157753646357"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comment ??","listText":"Pls like and comment ??","text":"Pls like and comment ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345671908","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4027337,"gmtCreate":1618332810209,"gmtModify":1680783932590,"authorId":3577131990335289,"author":{"id":3577131990335289,"idStr":"3577131990335289","authorId":3577131990335289,"name":"Saintrade","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0586ed865bb515fc4dd23fea4fa2590d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":345671908,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345888313,"gmtCreate":1618300475232,"gmtModify":1704708776605,"author":{"id":"3576528637295615","authorId":"3576528637295615","name":"XMTX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c23739d5ebc6efc866a95ab5455e191","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576528637295615","authorIdStr":"3576528637295615"},"htmlText":"Oof","listText":"Oof","text":"Oof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345888313","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345127630,"gmtCreate":1618290346420,"gmtModify":1704708669674,"author":{"id":"3566244878628904","authorId":"3566244878628904","name":"Wallstrtbets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c38bbee1121ea92508ad9508fa15c5e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3566244878628904","authorIdStr":"3566244878628904"},"htmlText":"No binance?","listText":"No binance?","text":"No binance?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345127630","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345348382,"gmtCreate":1618282081046,"gmtModify":1704708552265,"author":{"id":"3571044771112848","authorId":"3571044771112848","name":"ming22","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571044771112848","authorIdStr":"3571044771112848"},"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345348382","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":345352492,"gmtCreate":1618281438616,"gmtModify":1704708541738,"author":{"id":"3575238340277690","authorId":"3575238340277690","name":"Unicorn82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb8d97fb98bd68d1bf5ab48f6170acb","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575238340277690","authorIdStr":"3575238340277690"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345352492","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345351431,"gmtCreate":1618281122123,"gmtModify":1704708537360,"author":{"id":"3572904542082218","authorId":"3572904542082218","name":"Limpc88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e3e203a1aaa7875be2e273211a2f5b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572904542082218","authorIdStr":"3572904542082218"},"htmlText":"How do we get into the ipo?","listText":"How do we get into the ipo?","text":"How do we get into the ipo?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345351431","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345984590,"gmtCreate":1618272902910,"gmtModify":1704708369611,"author":{"id":"3563790138758003","authorId":"3563790138758003","name":"ZCZC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d359c8a02a4377c583da678d7e9144c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563790138758003","authorIdStr":"3563790138758003"},"htmlText":"[看漲]&nbsp;[看漲]&nbsp;","listText":"[看漲]&nbsp;[看漲]&nbsp;","text":"[看漲] [看漲]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345984590","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":345998531,"gmtCreate":1618271083123,"gmtModify":1704708323558,"author":{"id":"3573540190522229","authorId":"3573540190522229","name":"Targarean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/59de1c73df3e7e460bd84cc786850fa6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1f49570794979e009a5efdeb6f4789","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3573540190522229","authorIdStr":"3573540190522229"},"htmlText":"Am I the only one who thinks there is too much hype about crypto?!","listText":"Am I the only one who thinks there is too much hype about crypto?!","text":"Am I the only one who thinks there is too much hype about crypto?!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345998531","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345991182,"gmtCreate":1618270995946,"gmtModify":1704708321620,"author":{"id":"3574221145623189","authorId":"3574221145623189","name":"YH17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f600caf80ccbe52f6a8d46d71da20f19","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574221145623189","authorIdStr":"3574221145623189"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;..change...","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;..change...","text":"[微笑] [開心] ..change...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345991182","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":345033579,"gmtCreate":1618257470391,"gmtModify":1704708198277,"author":{"id":"3557024931927052","authorId":"3557024931927052","name":"nctony","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1449dfc5089ded0e8efe303fd4dd43b1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3557024931927052","authorIdStr":"3557024931927052"},"htmlText":"First day IPO will be very expensive","listText":"First day IPO will be very expensive","text":"First day IPO will be very expensive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345033579","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4021158,"gmtCreate":1618278889724,"gmtModify":1680783835502,"authorId":3574492799537574,"author":{"id":3574492799537574,"idStr":"3574492799537574","authorId":3574492799537574,"name":"ShafiqMazlan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b18d5e47abf20563e9bbeed4a877c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":345033579,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"And it will only get more expensive if you wait ","text":"And it will only get more expensive if you wait ","html":"And it will only get more expensive if you wait "},{"id":4020611,"gmtCreate":1618275637986,"gmtModify":1680783831028,"authorId":3578711990628369,"author":{"id":3578711990628369,"idStr":"3578711990628369","authorId":3578711990628369,"name":"Edmunda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2669448bbd2f82fff36c5995b5f75903","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":345033579,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":342777829,"gmtCreate":1618248543261,"gmtModify":1704708170176,"author":{"id":"3568990831362516","authorId":"3568990831362516","name":"lebronyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3197d176da26c5ba497e41acab3653fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568990831362516","authorIdStr":"3568990831362516"},"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342777829","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":342721245,"gmtCreate":1618244121987,"gmtModify":1704708124362,"author":{"id":"3570067588003272","authorId":"3570067588003272","name":"EELNOMIS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a00d40f6a6b41d38a7ac7d6c2aff735","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570067588003272","authorIdStr":"3570067588003272"},"htmlText":"Buy! Buy! Buy!","listText":"Buy! Buy! Buy!","text":"Buy! Buy! Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342721245","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":342781618,"gmtCreate":1618242526634,"gmtModify":1704708097479,"author":{"id":"3559824795366750","authorId":"3559824795366750","name":"Kiteflying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4e5c6dfeb378c0ccafe8d68fd396c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559824795366750","authorIdStr":"3559824795366750"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342781618","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":342738642,"gmtCreate":1618241295986,"gmtModify":1704708072490,"author":{"id":"3552212780175300","authorId":"3552212780175300","name":"NanOo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b046b3affde9b82c0ef3e72438182c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3552212780175300","authorIdStr":"3552212780175300"},"htmlText":"So the ticker is COIN ? Anybody buying ?","listText":"So the ticker is COIN ? Anybody buying ?","text":"So the ticker is COIN ? Anybody buying ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342738642","repostId":1130056228,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130056228","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618196120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130056228?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130056228","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoin","content":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.Summary<ul><li>Coinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.</li><li>The company has great B/S &amp; I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.</li><li>On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x &amp; P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.</li><li>Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.</li></ul>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742eca4e2e542a463e1dbcf4df427c92\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a&nbsp;12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:<ul><li>Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.</li><li>Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.</li><li>Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.<ul><li>Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.</li><li>Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.</li><li>Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dca88fc8e1ee7a20e6ee98226b6e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5051018901da5ee20a18d3ac5ef7b983\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks&nbsp;OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.<ol><li>It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.</li><li>It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.</li><li>There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.</li><li>The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.</li><li>It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.</li><li>Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.</li><li>The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.</li></ol>ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase stock opens at $381.00, pushing valuation to $99.6 bln\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nCoinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418060-coinbase-direct-listing-this-stock-should-be-core-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130056228","content_text":"Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase's direct listing comes at a perfect timing: right time, place, market, product, partners, acquisitions. First-rate execution. Good pedigree.The company has great B/S & I/S margins with potential: expansion into corporate trading, derivatives, credit card awards, and USD coin.On the $68 billion valuation provided by the company, it has a Market Cap/Revenue 11x & P/E of 47x estimated in our high growth scenario.Coinbase is at the center of future action as the world digitizes, tokenizes, and trades any and all physical assets.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Paul Schulte as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.Photo by N Rotteveel/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWe believe that Coinbase (COIN) is a strong core holding investment. This is supported by sound market conditions, a widespread crypto boom, and skyrocketing revenue growth that by far exceed the industry.Coinbase has enjoyed success as an online exchange for crypto since 2012 and has captured a 12% global market share. During that time, it has consistently kept its users’ personal data secure with its comprehensive due diligence process. It has put a high priority on cooperation and compliance with regulatory authorities. The first section of this article sets the framework of the business. Second, we take a deep dive into the company’s financials. Third, we provide an analysis of (i) Coinbase’s potential to diversify away from commission revenues with strategic investments and opportunities and (ii) major risk factors that the company faces. The listing is on April 14.Coinbase is the new set of rails that connects the crypto world and Wall StreetOne-stop-shopThe company provides retail, institutional, and vendor solutions for storage, spending, earning, and use of more than 40 crypto assets. It is a one-stop-shop for hedge funds, money managers, corporations for trading and custody of crypto. It has established relationships with Circle for a dollar coin and with Visa for crypto rewards programs. It has 43 million users (87% growth since Q1 2018) and 3 million Monthly Transacting Users (MTU) with $90 billion of assets (5.9x increase since Q1 2018). The company is attracting institutional investors with a 4.2x increase in Trading Volume since Q1 2018. It has 7,000 institutional users and 115,000 ecosystem partners. Revenues in Q4 2020 were $585 million, and we estimate Q1 2021 revenue will easily exceed $1.2 billion (See valuation on section Valuation model). The current global market share is 12%.Revenue streamsThe exchange makes most of its money through high commission churn from retail. But achieving economies of scale from much more institutional trading activity – even though they offer lower commissions – is the next hurdle. We remain optimistic about a powerful secular trend of higher bitcoin prices due to the digitization of the physical world resulting in its monetization through tokens. Central banks will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon and use the private sector pipes since they are not equipped (nor is it their function) to build and maintain such technology. This is essentially a replacement for both SWIFT and DTCC and will be much bigger than these two combined entities ever were. This is the center of the titanic competition between the US and China. Companies like Coinbase will have important strategic value for the US policy apparatus in Washington, DC.Valuation modelModel FrameworkWe have modeled Coinbase revenue growth in 2021. Q1 2021 estimates are based on the recent sharp increase of Crypto Market Cap, Bitcoin Price, and Trading Volume. At the time of this research, the value of crypto more than doubled since December 2020. In Q4 2020, the company recorded $585 million in revenue with a crypto market cap of ~$782 billion. To assess the potential of Coinbase, we projected the company’s revenue via a sensitivity analysis with the following parameters:Market capitalization of crypto assets.This is split into Bitcoin market cap and other crypto assets. Coinbase is diversifying its crypto assets offering, driven by the introduction of 20 crypto assets between 2019 and 2020, including DeFi applications and protocols which can allow diversification away Trading Volume from Bitcoin.Trading Volume of Retail and Institutional. Institutional Trading is slowly outpacing Retail Trading, though fees are lower for institutions. Verified Institutions grew 67% from 4,200 to 7,000 from 2019 to 2020. Assets on the Platform from institutions grew 5.9x from $6.5 billion to $44.8 billion for a total of $90 billion.Transaction fees.These represented 96% of their revenue in 2020. The majority of this is derived from transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Based on these assumptions, we created three different scenarios assuming a $68 billion valuation provided by the company. Market Cap/Revenue sensitivity table and quarterly revenue estimates are found below.Scenario 1:Crypto market cap declines to around $900 billion by Q4 2021, with a parallel decline in Trading Volume on the platform, and a slight decrease in market share. Forward Market Cap/Revenue multiple of 27.2x.Scenario 2:We projected the crypto market cap to stabilise around $1,700 billion by Q4 2021, with a stable trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 17.0x.Scenario 3:Crypto market cap keep up its momentum and reach $1,900 billion by Q4 2021, with an increase in trading volume and market share. Forward EV/Revenue multiple of 11.3x.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates. Data as of 9th March 2021.Source: Coinbase public filings, Coinmarketcap.com, Author estimates Data as of 9th March 2021Our case: Stable to higher prices by end of 2021Our fairly bullish estimates on revenue for 2021 should exceed $3.5 billion and could very well top $5 billion. While the grey market (and admittedly illiquid) futures price is above $100 billion, the company has stated its intention to do the listing at $68 billion. Many investors were eyeing the grey market price with great alarm as it surpassed $130 billion. Happily, the direct listing price is one half of the peak of $135 billion.Coinbase has a very clean balance sheet. Return on assets was 7% for 2020. Assets on Equity is 3.8x. Its Return on Capital could easily exceed 30% in 2021. It is sitting on a cash pile. It is a highly profitable business creating consistent retained earnings. The balance sheet is pristine and is an efficient machine. The owners are handing public investors a well-oiled machine with a proven track record and a great balance sheet. This is a rarity in the current IPO market.Projected EV/Revenue of high scenario at $68 billion/$6 billion is about 11x, among the lowest of its comparable peers and in line with SoFi and Root. The 2021 P/E should be about 47x on our high end of estimates, compared to 49x for the Russell 2000. Our worst-case scenario for 2021 Return on Capital is 26%. This still blows away the traditional exchanges. A medium case scenario puts ROC at 35%.Coinbase is a case of the right company at the right time, right place, right sector, right business, right product. Its gross margins are in the high 80s and should settle in the low 80s as the business is built out and matures. EBIT margins are around 30% and net margins are mid-20s.Business opportunities and major risks OpportunitiesThe direct listing will set the stage for more listings of crypto firms, legitimise crypto with global finance, bridge the gap with Wall Street, increase the visibility of crypto in Fortune 500 and increase participation. It will deepen its partnerships with both Circle and Visa as well as widen its DeFi propositions. The platform is easy to use and scalable.Exciting additions are custody with Vast Bank as a licensed institution. It will bolt on open source standards with Rosetta — akin to China’s BSN. It will add crypto lending with Xapo. It will also offer enhanced trading services with Tagomi. On a geographical basis, it will expand into MENA activity with Rain.In addition, Coinbase’s careful long-term plan will include a roll out into an enhanced number of crypto assets and expand its derivatives. It will continue to make a major push into institutional business. It will move further into dollar coin distribution. And it will piggyback onto major credit cards via crypto points.RisksThe company looks great, but the main risks which investors should bear in mind. Bringing many of the risk and execution functions in-house is important. So far, Coinbase is playing extremely nice with the regulators. While Coinbase could potentially end up as a major conduit for a Federal Reserve coin, the company is very young, and its infrastructure has not kept up with developments.It will need to invest a lot in Capex to build out its infrastructure and margins may shrink.It is a highly competitive sector and many other players are breathing down Coinbase’s neck, especially in Asia.There are significant regulatory hurdles, although Coinbase is highly sensitive to regulatory shifts. It has been wisely and deliberately slow in adding new crypto because of this.The exchange may have to take greater responsibility in establishing bona fides and offer AML guarantees to regulators.It is highly reliant on third parties for its businesses. This includes payment gateways, cloud, compliance, customer service, and product development. This needs to be brought in-house and tightly controlled. The role of a decisive and capable CTO is vital here.Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is in the realm of possibility that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall by 50% or more before recovering. As with stock exchanges, rising prices are good for business and sustained bear markets are bad for business. But volatility is always good for exchanges.The managers of the company have never operated a public company of great size before.ConclusionWe believe Coinbase’s direct listing comes at the right time and is accompanied by strong market conditions. Widespread crypto acceptance is underway, and it has outstanding prospects. Projected revenue growth is undoubtedly one of the fastest in the industry. This company deserves serious attention.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":145,"commentSize":39,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":13,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}