**Gold Market Review and Key Insights:** Last week, gold prices rose steadily, approaching record highs. London spot gold closed at $4,341 per ounce (up 1.0% week-on-week), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 976 yuan per gram (up 1.2% week-on-week).
**U.S. Inflation Declines Beyond Expectations, Potentially Supporting Rate Cuts:** November CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the forecasted 3.0% and marking a 21-year low. The significantly lower-than-expected inflation data provides room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, potentially boosting market expectations for further easing. However, the October government shutdown may have distorted the data, requiring confirmation from December’s CPI release. Under baseline assumptions, tariff impacts on inflation remain one-off, and U.S. inflation is expected to enter a downward trend in 2026 due to high base effects.
**Mixed U.S. Labor Market Data:** November non-farm payrolls rose by 64,000, following October’s increase of 105,000—both above expectations. However, August and September figures were revised down by a combined 33,000. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November, exceeding forecasts and hitting a four-year high. Due to low response rates in shutdown-affected surveys, unemployment data reliability is questionable, whereas non-farm payrolls remain more credible. Markets have not priced in a labor market downturn, awaiting higher-quality December employment figures.
**Ongoing Fed Chair Succession Debate:** Former President Trump continues interviewing candidates, with the race evolving dynamically. Early frontrunner Hassett has seen declining support, while ex-Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s odds have risen. In a recent national address, Trump emphasized that the next Fed chair must advocate "significant rate cuts," underscoring his dissatisfaction with current monetary policy and his intent to influence Fed independence.
**Outlook:** The Fed remains in a broad rate-cutting cycle, and a dovish chair appointment could accelerate easing. Alongside monetary expansion, the U.S. is in a fiscal stimulus phase, with persistent credit risks from debt servicing pressures driving global central banks to diversify reserves into gold. Amid dual monetary and fiscal easing, gold’s medium-to-long-term value remains favorable.
**Key Signals for Gold ETFs (518880) Next Week:** U.S. Q3 GDP and PCE price index.
**Comparison of RMB-Denominated Gold and International Prices:** Data source: Wind, HuaAn Fund, as of 2025/12/19.
**Risk Warning:** Investors should note gold-specific risks, including market volatility, deviations between fund returns and domestic spot prices, and Shanghai Gold Exchange risks. Fund managers do not guarantee profits or minimum returns, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The short history of Chinese funds may not reflect all market phases. Investments carry risks; due diligence is advised. Investors should review fund documents and assess risk profiles before making independent decisions.
MACD golden cross signals emerge, with select stocks performing well.
