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S&P 500: Bear Market Over? - Week Starting April 3rd (Technical Analysis)

Seeking Alpha2023-04-03

SummaryBears were steamrolled this week as the S&P 500 gained +3.5% in 3 days. Friday's session was the strongest close to a Q1 ever.What this could mean for the week ahead.Key technical levels and ...

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OngCK
·2023-04-04
Like and comment pls
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逢場作戲又一日
·2023-04-04
Great
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- OngCK:
  Ok
  2023-04-04
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Jloong
·2023-04-04
M
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Longs
·2023-04-03
👌🏼🙏🏼
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Seah CL
·2023-04-03
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Friday's session was the strongest close to a Q1 ever.What this could mean for the week ahead.Key technical levels and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591816-sp-500-bear-market-over-week-starting-april-3-technical-analysis\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500: Bear Market Over? - Week Starting April 3rd (Technical Analysis)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500: Bear Market Over? - Week Starting April 3rd (Technical Analysis)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-03 23:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591816-sp-500-bear-market-over-week-starting-april-3-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBears were steamrolled this week as the S&P 500 gained +3.5% in 3 days. Friday's session was the strongest close to a Q1 ever.What this could mean for the week ahead.Key technical levels and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591816-sp-500-bear-market-over-week-starting-april-3-technical-analysis\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591816-sp-500-bear-market-over-week-starting-april-3-technical-analysis","article_id":"1130523918","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130523918","pubTimestamp":1680535985,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryBears were steamrolled this week as the S&P 500 gained +3.5% in 3 days. Friday's session was ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"标普500：熊市结束了？-4月3日开始的一周（技术分析）","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryBears were steamrolled this week as the S&P 500 gained +3.5% in 3 days. Friday's session was the strongest close to a Q1 ever.What this could mean for the week ahead.Key technical levels and probable outcomes for the S&P 500.Last week's 'higher close in a crisis' article highlighted the stock market's resilience, and as the banking crisis faded this week, the bulls took over. Wednesday's session in the S&P 500 (SPY) triggered a bullish pattern and a rush to buy into the end of the month and quarter. The S&P 500 closed +3.5% for the week, +3.52% in March, and an impressive 7.0% in Q1. With a Fed pivot expected and yields on the slide, is the bear market over?In an attempt to answer that, a variety of technical analysis techniques will be used to look at probable moves for the S&P 500 in the week ahead. The S&P 500 chart will be analyzed on monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes, then the information collated into an actionable summary at the end with both bear and bull scenarios guided by inflection points.The Market NarrativeIt's happening again. Bulls are once more pre-empting a dovish shift from the Fed and risk assets are bidding higher. In the past, this has backfired as the stronger the stock market gets, the less likely a Fed pivot becomes.A dovish shift now hinges on the banking crisis weighing on the economy and inflation just enough for the Fed to stop raising rates while other unwanted effects stay contained. It also relies on continued disinflation despite re-strengthening data and a commodity rally.There are several possible holes in this narrative and the first could arrive next Friday with NFP. Also, look out for a Fed push back on the recent dovish assumptions, but maybe not as early as next week.S&P 500 Quarterly/MonthlyIt is prudent to look at charts in all timeframes, from the yearly down to the daily (and even intraday such as the 60 and 15-minute). However, the higher timeframes only need to be checked at the open of each bar, so the quarterly chart won't be referenced here again for 3 months.I use the log chart for the S&P 500 quarterly, and focus on the action since the 2009 low.SPX QuarterlySPX Quarterly (Tradingview)The Q1 bar closed at 4109, above the high of the Q4 reversal bar which gives a bullish bias. New highs above the Q1 high of 4195 looks likely before any reversal. Q3's high of 4325 is initial resistance.On to the monthly chart:SPX MonthlySPX Monthly (Tradingview)The March bar closed right at the highs, and as always, this projects continuation in the next bar. April should therefore test higher with the Q1 high of 4195 a logical first target.Although the 20MA at 4177 is resistance, it could be exceeded since it was tested as recently as February. Major resistance comes in at 4325 and the high of August followed by the 4600 area.Support comes in at 3808 at the March lows, with the 50MA at 3700.There are no exhaustion signals in either direction (using Demark methods), although downside exhaustion was very nearly registered in October, so we can say this is being reset with the move from that low.S&P 500 WeeklyThe weekly chart is above all the MAs and made a strong close above 4101 resistance. Follow through is likely early next week but it would be surprising to see it break above 4151 trendline resistance ahead of the Easter weekend holiday and NFP on Friday.SPX WeeklySPX Weekly (Tradingview)The high volume node and last week's low line up to provide support at 3950-51.There is an upside (Demark) exhaustion count underway, but will only be on bar 3 of a possible 9 next week.S&P 500 DailyThe dominant pattern on the daily chart is the inverse head and shoulders pattern which triggered on Wednesday. This has a target of 4280, and given the quarterly/monthly context, it could well be reached. However, the path there won't be a straight line.SPX DailySPX Daily (Tradingview)Initial resistance is the TDST at 4147. This is a level derived from the previous Demark exhaustion signal and isn't likely to be breached easily, especially since the weekly trendline is just above at 4151.Each session low and gap created this week has the potential to act as support. However, confluence is important on bigger dips and if the rising 50dma happens to line up with the previous 4039 high it would act as decent initial support. If there is a big reversal lower, 3940-50 could come into play.An upside exhaustion (Demark) count will be on bar 5 of 9 on Monday. A downside reaction could therefore be seen on bar 8 on Thursday.Scenarios for Next WeekBullishA crisis and an injection of liquidity has ignited a new bullish phase. The S&P 500 should now really go on to exceed the Q1 high of 4195, with 4280 and 4325 possible targets later in April. While a 'rug pull' could happen next week from the 4140-50 area, 3940-50 should be a new floor and 4039 even has the potential to hold if the dip is mild.BearishBears have fumbled and the strong March close has negated the February reversal. However, another higher timeframe reversal could develop over April and Q2. As the banking crisis fades and the sentiment shifts more bullish, the bears will get another chance to re-group.In the near-term, look for 4140-50 to hold next week. A surprise break of 3940-50 could lead to a deep test of the 3808 low.ConclusionBulls have taken the upper hand. While a correctional dip looks due next week from 4140-50, it should set up a continued rally in April to around 4300.Is the bear market over? Not by a long way, but it could take some time (and higher prices) to create the next higher timeframe reversal lower.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9941708630,"gmtCreate":1680586230221,"gmtModify":1680586234012,"author":{"id":"3575595150850001","authorId":"3575595150850001","name":"OngCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48712c91608dbd0ea50712fabae2287","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575595150850001","authorIdStr":"3575595150850001"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941708630","repostId":1130523918,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941426071,"gmtCreate":1680555950693,"gmtModify":1680555955224,"author":{"id":"3555043402922696","authorId":"3555043402922696","name":"逢場作戲又一日","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a5fbf2ceb7c7ee0399d41e6348dadf7","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3555043402922696","authorIdStr":"3555043402922696"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941426071","repostId":1130523918,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":106202388,"gmtCreate":1680586238745,"gmtModify":1680586241936,"authorId":3575595150850001,"author":{"id":3575595150850001,"idStr":"3575595150850001","authorId":3575595150850001,"name":"OngCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48712c91608dbd0ea50712fabae2287","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9941426071,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Ok</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Ok</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Ok</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941468306,"gmtCreate":1680538330405,"gmtModify":1680538334239,"author":{"id":"3582461179498852","authorId":"3582461179498852","name":"Jloong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b2ad914ca2d224c8a40f6783470de6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582461179498852","authorIdStr":"3582461179498852"},"htmlText":"M","listText":"M","text":"M","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941468306","repostId":1130523918,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941481059,"gmtCreate":1680532624472,"gmtModify":1680532628248,"author":{"id":"4115290449563752","authorId":"4115290449563752","name":"Longs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/824b5073731ab909a8d4e129caa8d995","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4115290449563752","authorIdStr":"4115290449563752"},"htmlText":"👌🏼🙏🏼","listText":"👌🏼🙏🏼","text":"👌🏼🙏🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941481059","repostId":1130523918,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941434898,"gmtCreate":1680522679114,"gmtModify":1680522682508,"author":{"id":"4102135564535180","authorId":"4102135564535180","name":"Seah CL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/970bca7b04e85a42a2c8eabed7ec96d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4102135564535180","authorIdStr":"4102135564535180"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941434898","repostId":1130523918,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":108,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":4,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}