The formal nomination of Kevin Warsh by US President Donald Trump to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair has not yet occurred. While such a delay is not unprecedented, it is uncommon and introduces further uncertainty into a process already clouded by concerns over political pressure on the central bank. The Fed's ability to remain insulated from short-term political considerations and set interest rates independently of presidential preferences is widely viewed as crucial to its capacity to control inflation and guide the economy toward healthy growth.
Trump announced his intention to nominate the former Fed governor Warsh four weeks ago. Since 2010, only two nominees for Fed Chair or Board seats have experienced a wait longer than four weeks between the White House's announcement and the formal submission of paperwork to the Senate to initiate the confirmation process. The reasons for the delay in advancing Warsh's nomination are unclear; however, Republican Senator Thom Tillis has pledged to block any Fed nominations as long as a Justice Department investigation into Powell's congressional testimony regarding the renovation of the Fed's Washington building remains ongoing. Tillis has characterized the investigation as baseless and a intimidation tactic by the Trump administration, which has publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Powell for not cutting interest rates as quickly or deeply as desired.
"The lack of movement on the Warsh nomination is indeed peculiar," said Derek Tang, an analyst at forecasting firm LH Meyer. "The White House appears to have yet found a way to circumvent Senator Tillis's blockade. The senator has stated he will not allow any Fed nominations to proceed through the Senate Banking Committee unless the investigation into Powell is concluded." A White House spokesperson, Kush Desai, stated, "The White House continues to work with the Senate to swiftly confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve," adding that Warsh is "fully qualified to restore the Fed's capacity for decision-making and confidence." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the Republican-controlled Senate Banking Committee has agreed to move forward with confirmation hearings once Warsh is formally nominated. Republican members of the committee, including Tillis, have expressed that they view Warsh as well-qualified and suitable for the role. However, without Tillis's support to advance the nomination to the full Senate, the committee's narrow Republican majority cannot overcome unified Democratic opposition.
Powell disclosed the Justice Department investigation in January, describing it as part of "threats and persistent pressure" from the Trump administration aimed at forcing rate cuts. Although the Fed implemented rate cuts in the final three meetings of 2025, Trump has continued to demand significantly lower borrowing costs. A report on Thursday indicated that the Fed has asked a judge to quash a subpoena issued by the government as part of this investigation. The Fed declined to comment on the report. This investigation is not the only obstacle to Trump's long-stated desire to replace Powell with a chair more supportive of rate cuts.
With just 11 weeks remaining until Powell's term as Chair concludes on May 15, the timeline is shorter than the duration from nomination to Senate confirmation for most recent Fed governors. Yet, time pressure is not insurmountable—the Senate confirmed Stephen Miran, then a Trump economic adviser, as a Fed governor less than two weeks after his nomination last fall. However, a prolonged delay in Warsh's confirmation process would leave both the nominee and the central bank in an awkward state of limbo as the June 16-17 Fed meeting approaches, which is seen as the earliest potential occasion for a serious discussion about rate cuts.
Trump is expected to nominate Warsh to the Fed governor seat currently held by Miran, whose term expired on January 31 but who can remain until a successor is confirmed. This swap would replace one rate-cut supporter with another, bringing Trump appointees within one seat of a majority on the seven-member Fed Board. Trump has attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook in an unprecedented manner, citing alleged misstatements on a mortgage application. Cook, appointed by former President Joe Biden, has denied any wrongdoing and is contesting her removal in a case before the Supreme Court. Powell attended oral arguments in January, calling it "the most significant legal case in the Fed's 113-year history" due to its implications for central bank independence.
If he chooses, Powell can remain on the Fed Board until at least January 31, 2028. He has declined to say whether he will leave the Board after his term as Chair ends—a step taken by nearly all his predecessors. Breaking with this precedent would be an extraordinary move, signaling Powell's ongoing concern about the Fed's ability to maintain independent operations. Reasons for such concern include Trump's explicit conditioning of support for rate cuts on his nominee's stance, and the administration's unprecedented pressure on the central bank's leadership, including through the Justice Department investigation. However, remaining on the Board would almost certainly draw criticism from the Trump administration and others as a partisan-motivated attempt to obstruct the president's power to appoint new governors.
Even if Powell remains a governor, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would almost certainly follow institutional precedent by electing Warsh to lead the policy-setting committee. This would present Warsh with a more complex challenge: he would need to persuade a divided committee to support the rate cuts he wishes to pursue, all while formulating policy alongside the individual who previously held the chairmanship.
