Brent crude oil surges to 14-year high
U.S. stock futures and global equity indexes dropped after Russian forces intensified strikes across Ukraine and as the threat of a potential ban on imports of Russian oil helped spur a surge in energy prices.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 declined between 1.3% and 1.4%, indicating U.S. markets could fall in Monday’s trading. The Dow last week recorded its fourth straight week of losses.
VIX and VIXmain Jumped over 11.7% and 7.2% separately.
Gold-main 2204 rose 2% and once reached $2007.5.
The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 tumbled 3.8% Monday and Germany’s DAX stock index fell into bear market territory.
The war in Ukraine, now in its 12th day, has roiled commodity markets, increased tensions between Moscow and the West and led to Russia being unplugged from much of the global financial system. For investors, that has raised questions about the outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates and the potential side effects of Russia’s sudden financial exile.
Oil prices soared, with global benchmark Brent crude jumping 8.5% to $128.08 a barrel, the highest level since July 2008. Earlier Monday,it topped $130.The U.S. equivalent, West Texas Intermediate, rose 8.8% to $125.83. The U.S. and European partners are discussing a ban on imports of Russian oil,Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday. A European gas benchmark surged 48% to a record high.
Rising oil prices are spurring concerns about demand destruction and a global recession, said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets. “It’s hard to see much in the way of significant upside for stock markets now against a backdrop of continued escalation” in Ukraine, he said.
Higher commodity prices and the resulting accelerated inflation are complicating the next moves of major central banks, who were largely set to begin tightening monetary policy before the war began. The European Central Bank is meeting this week, and investors will be watching for changes to its growth outlook and what this could mean for policy.
“This toxic cocktail poses a huge problem for central banks. Do they tighten monetary policy and risk pushing the world into a recession even quicker or do they allow inflation to rip higher, which would do the same thing?” Mr Hewson said.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond edged down to 1.715% Monday from 1.722% on Friday, extending its descent, after posting the biggest one-week decline since March 2020 last week.
Other haven assets rallied as well. Gold rose 1.7% to above $2,000 a troy ounce, the highest level since August 2020. The dollar strengthened, with the WSJ Dollar Index rising 0.3%.
Meanwhile, the Russian ruble appreciated 9.3% against the dollar, in a likely sign of intervention by the country’s central bank, analysts said. Its stock market is closed and will remain so until at least March 8, according to Russia’s central bank. It hasn’t traded normally since Feb. 25.
Eastern European currencies continued to come under pressure, with the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint weakening 2% and 4%, respectively, against the greenback.
Shares of European banks declined further. The Euro Stoxx banking subindex fell 8.3%, extending last week’s 19% drop. Those with substantial exposure to Russia were hit the hardest, with Societe Generale falling 9%,Commerzbank sliding 9.5% and ING down 7.5%. ING said on Friday that the sanctions on Russia affected $700 million of its loans.
“For some banks it’s about exposure to Ukraine and Russia. A second impact is rising credit risk more broadly as the economy is coming under pressure,” said Sebastien Galy, a macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.
Investors appear to be in classic flight-to-safety mode and stocks are suffering as a result, said Kelvin Tay, the Singapore-based regional chief investment officer forUBS.Very high oil prices will function as “a tax on the global economy, and therefore global growth will actually have to slow,” he said.
Stock benchmarks in the Asia-Pacific region fell sharply, with South Korea’s Kospi Composite declining more than 2% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 shedding 2.9%, to close at its lowest since November 2020. The mainland Chinese CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both fell more than 3%.