Tesla's China Scare

22
19
Favorite

Tesla's China Scare

seekingalpha2021-06-09

Summary Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May. A recent report from Reuters ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment（19）

All in Tesla
·2021-06-11
Conclusion Tesla is still in strong demand in China. The Chinese are not stupid cause they know Tesla cars are better!
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- Vivberry:
  Exactly
  2021-06-11
  Reply
  Report
- KKSV:
  ??
  2021-06-14
  Reply
  Report
All in Tesla
·2021-06-09
What nonsense news reporting.. these are nothing but FUD news to discredit Tesla. Drop some more pls I will buy more ?
Reply
Like
Report
VEI
·2021-06-09
Tell me your opinion about this news...
Reply
Like
Report
Yinasim
·2021-06-09
Good read. All the more reason for betting on China's EV businesses.
Reply
Like
Report
Fold Replies
- RBeaver:
  Ye
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
ONGTS
·2021-06-09
good
Reply
Like
Report
Wallstrtbets
·2021-06-09
Nothing new.
Reply
1
Report
sharenraj
·2021-06-09
Please like and comment
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- Quickpick:
  response back pls
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
ZEROHERO
·2021-06-09
Too many shorters for TSLA. Making false reporting to dump shares before getting the facts to pump it back up can be rewarding for the institutional investors.
Reply
Like
Report
Fold Replies
- RBeaver:
  Ye
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
Gargonites
·2021-06-09
THIS IS MEDIA MANIPULATION. FAKE HEADLINES.
Reply
2
Report
Fold Replies
- ZEROHERO:
  Have to get use to such reporting esp on TSLA
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
BenYSLim
·2021-06-09
Oh no[Sad]
Reply
Like
Report
Chin Lee
·2021-06-09
u can do it tesla
Reply
3
Report
STQIANG
·2021-06-09
這個媒體一看就是空方的不願承認數據渲染恐慌
Reply
4
Report
AaronNg
·2021-06-09
Comment and like please
Reply
4
Report
Fold Replies
- AaronNg:
  Done
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
- BenYSLim:
  Commented n liked
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
- Huatkia168:
  Done. Comment back please…. thank you !
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
AaronNg
·2021-06-09
That is indeed scary
Reply
1
Report
KelvinGHH
·2021-06-09
No eyes see …
Reply
1
Report
peilinnggg
·2021-06-09
Screw the FUD
Reply
1
Report
AliceLew
·2021-06-09
Comments thanks
Reply
3
Report
Fold Replies
- AliceLew:
  comment thanks
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
- peilinnggg:
  Done
  2021-06-09
  Reply
  Report
Tencent2040
·2021-06-09
Let's see how it goes.
Reply
2
Report
Phoenix5104
·2021-06-09
Go Tesla!
Reply
3
Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"1133238185","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Tesla's China Scare","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLA","symbol_name":"特斯拉","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","article_id":"1133238185","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"特斯拉的中国恐慌","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":181276349,"gmtCreate":1623399344881,"gmtModify":1704202547444,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","name":"All in Tesla","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8db11f6e6a9a2a52850e734188850dc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577580366301047","authorIdStr":"3577580366301047"},"htmlText":"Conclusion Tesla is still in strong demand in China. The Chinese are not stupid cause they know Tesla cars are better!","listText":"Conclusion Tesla is still in strong demand in China. The Chinese are not stupid cause they know Tesla cars are better!","text":"Conclusion Tesla is still in strong demand in China. The Chinese are not stupid cause they know Tesla cars are better!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181276349","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4683448,"gmtCreate":1623401994648,"gmtModify":1663228451044,"authorId":3580092330105291,"author":{"id":3580092330105291,"idStr":"3580092330105291","authorId":3580092330105291,"name":"Vivberry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8a4ce0041edafbf8e072bb66c313e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":181276349,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Exactly","text":"Exactly","html":"Exactly"},{"id":4748217,"gmtCreate":1623673852312,"gmtModify":1635322027087,"authorId":3577785816786397,"author":{"id":3577785816786397,"idStr":"3577785816786397","authorId":3577785816786397,"name":"KKSV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af79ae4e2c2eee7b0446d54673c5439e","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":181276349,"type":1,"supId":4683448,"prevId":0,"content":"??","text":"??","html":"??"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":189342215,"gmtCreate":1623246575237,"gmtModify":1704199237483,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","name":"All in Tesla","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8db11f6e6a9a2a52850e734188850dc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577580366301047","authorIdStr":"3577580366301047"},"htmlText":"What nonsense news reporting.. these are nothing but FUD news to discredit Tesla. Drop some more pls I will buy more ?","listText":"What nonsense news reporting.. these are nothing but FUD news to discredit Tesla. Drop some more pls I will buy more ?","text":"What nonsense news reporting.. these are nothing but FUD news to discredit Tesla. Drop some more pls I will buy more ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189342215","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":189075219,"gmtCreate":1623236796731,"gmtModify":1704198975705,"author":{"id":"3572227502030126","authorId":"3572227502030126","name":"VEI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f7bff57534d75d0b97d35712773aea","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572227502030126","authorIdStr":"3572227502030126"},"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189075219","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":189072145,"gmtCreate":1623236746187,"gmtModify":1704198973529,"author":{"id":"3585236324784959","authorId":"3585236324784959","name":"Yinasim","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe636395860151da4253481e4a32fd0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585236324784959","authorIdStr":"3585236324784959"},"htmlText":"Good read. All the more reason for betting on China's EV businesses.","listText":"Good read. All the more reason for betting on China's EV businesses.","text":"Good read. All the more reason for betting on China's EV businesses.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189072145","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4649687,"gmtCreate":1623240571053,"gmtModify":1663228282842,"authorId":3571573518430699,"author":{"id":3571573518430699,"idStr":"3571573518430699","authorId":3571573518430699,"name":"RBeaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfd9e9b5a26e0a8d752c4ae3fe2f57","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":189072145,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ye</u>","text":"<u>Ye</u>","html":"<u>Ye</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":189020448,"gmtCreate":1623234076784,"gmtModify":1704198924408,"author":{"id":"3586258149336307","authorId":"3586258149336307","name":"ONGTS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd829dc637d1d23bab05737552bfa625","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586258149336307","authorIdStr":"3586258149336307"},"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189020448","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":189096735,"gmtCreate":1623230927527,"gmtModify":1704198859013,"author":{"id":"3566244878628904","authorId":"3566244878628904","name":"Wallstrtbets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c38bbee1121ea92508ad9508fa15c5e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3566244878628904","authorIdStr":"3566244878628904"},"htmlText":"Nothing new.","listText":"Nothing new.","text":"Nothing new.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189096735","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":189091811,"gmtCreate":1623230744733,"gmtModify":1704198856046,"author":{"id":"3580564583915483","authorId":"3580564583915483","name":"sharenraj","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/419197abf2e1b3044b4c2d305e844189","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580564583915483","authorIdStr":"3580564583915483"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189091811","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4648016,"gmtCreate":1623230896998,"gmtModify":1663228272434,"authorId":3582063791084031,"author":{"id":3582063791084031,"idStr":"3582063791084031","authorId":3582063791084031,"name":"Quickpick","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5391a57305fb5bfc96713284252e5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":189091811,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"response back <u>pls</u>","text":"response back <u>pls</u>","html":"response back <u>pls</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":189004976,"gmtCreate":1623230443195,"gmtModify":1704198847676,"author":{"id":"3566532164444643","authorId":"3566532164444643","name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","vip":2,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3566532164444643","authorIdStr":"3566532164444643"},"htmlText":"Too many shorters for TSLA. Making false reporting to dump shares&nbsp;before getting the facts to pump&nbsp;it back up can be rewarding for the institutional investors.","listText":"Too many shorters for TSLA. Making false reporting to dump shares&nbsp;before getting the facts to pump&nbsp;it back up can be rewarding for the institutional investors.","text":"Too many shorters for TSLA. Making false reporting to dump shares before getting the facts to pump it back up can be rewarding for the institutional investors.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189004976","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4649690,"gmtCreate":1623240591777,"gmtModify":1663228283427,"authorId":3571573518430699,"author":{"id":3571573518430699,"idStr":"3571573518430699","authorId":3571573518430699,"name":"RBeaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfd9e9b5a26e0a8d752c4ae3fe2f57","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":189004976,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ye</u>","text":"<u>Ye</u>","html":"<u>Ye</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":189005233,"gmtCreate":1623230425322,"gmtModify":1704198846371,"author":{"id":"3574718004935026","authorId":"3574718004935026","name":"Gargonites","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce818aa90190fcaa891176005fd4ce25","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574718004935026","authorIdStr":"3574718004935026"},"htmlText":"THIS IS MEDIA MANIPULATION. FAKE HEADLINES.","listText":"THIS IS MEDIA MANIPULATION. FAKE HEADLINES.","text":"THIS IS MEDIA MANIPULATION. FAKE HEADLINES.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189005233","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4647930,"gmtCreate":1623230499371,"gmtModify":1663228274140,"authorId":3566532164444643,"author":{"id":3566532164444643,"idStr":"3566532164444643","authorId":3566532164444643,"name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.05","exceedPercentage":"93.75%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.24","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":189005233,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Have to get use to such reporting esp on TSLA","text":"Have to get use to such reporting esp on TSLA","html":"Have to get use to such reporting esp on TSLA"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180775435,"gmtCreate":1623229984427,"gmtModify":1704198832605,"author":{"id":"3584102971420376","authorId":"3584102971420376","name":"BenYSLim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94898501beebba354d54215388e5f9d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584102971420376","authorIdStr":"3584102971420376"},"htmlText":"Oh no[Sad]&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no[Sad]&nbsp;","text":"Oh no[Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180775435","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180748275,"gmtCreate":1623229172597,"gmtModify":1704198813146,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"Chin Lee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61bb83d87c83c5568c3b6960d83e84c0","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"htmlText":"u can do&nbsp;it tesla","listText":"u can do&nbsp;it tesla","text":"u can do it tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180748275","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180741677,"gmtCreate":1623229061999,"gmtModify":1704198812491,"author":{"id":"3559881459173473","authorId":"3559881459173473","name":"STQIANG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/565ff0f99f3f5c394ad46a880ec9644d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559881459173473","authorIdStr":"3559881459173473"},"htmlText":"這個媒體一看就是空方的 &nbsp;不願承認數據 渲染恐慌","listText":"這個媒體一看就是空方的 &nbsp;不願承認數據 渲染恐慌","text":"這個媒體一看就是空方的 不願承認數據 渲染恐慌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180741677","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":180749712,"gmtCreate":1623228969336,"gmtModify":1704198810041,"author":{"id":"3559167756156665","authorId":"3559167756156665","name":"AaronNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbfb121556dc390305847fad3f4ced2","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559167756156665","authorIdStr":"3559167756156665"},"htmlText":"Comment and like please","listText":"Comment and like please","text":"Comment and like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180749712","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4648404,"gmtCreate":1623233259741,"gmtModify":1663228277743,"authorId":3559167756156665,"author":{"id":3559167756156665,"idStr":"3559167756156665","authorId":3559167756156665,"name":"AaronNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbfb121556dc390305847fad3f4ced2","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180749712,"type":1,"supId":4647921,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":4647833,"gmtCreate":1623229998920,"gmtModify":1663228274734,"authorId":3584102971420376,"author":{"id":3584102971420376,"idStr":"3584102971420376","authorId":3584102971420376,"name":"BenYSLim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94898501beebba354d54215388e5f9d1","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180749712,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Commented n liked","text":"Commented n liked","html":"Commented n liked"},{"id":4647921,"gmtCreate":1623230474121,"gmtModify":1663228271349,"authorId":3551331974959956,"author":{"id":3551331974959956,"idStr":"3551331974959956","authorId":3551331974959956,"name":"Huatkia168","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180749712,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done. Comment back please…. thank you !","text":"Done. Comment back please…. thank you !","html":"Done. Comment back please…. thank you !"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180749882,"gmtCreate":1623228953946,"gmtModify":1704198809220,"author":{"id":"3559167756156665","authorId":"3559167756156665","name":"AaronNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbfb121556dc390305847fad3f4ced2","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559167756156665","authorIdStr":"3559167756156665"},"htmlText":"That is indeed scary","listText":"That is indeed scary","text":"That is indeed scary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180749882","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180749080,"gmtCreate":1623228900240,"gmtModify":1704198808733,"author":{"id":"3577759051004025","authorId":"3577759051004025","name":"KelvinGHH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ebbb4302a14eee017775dc3f52cbee0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577759051004025","authorIdStr":"3577759051004025"},"htmlText":"No eyes see …","listText":"No eyes see …","text":"No eyes see …","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180749080","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180754368,"gmtCreate":1623228766554,"gmtModify":1704198804805,"author":{"id":"3572261394011317","authorId":"3572261394011317","name":"peilinnggg","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d41f25d478de6705e0b8c4acd71eb3fc","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572261394011317","authorIdStr":"3572261394011317"},"htmlText":"Screw the FUD","listText":"Screw the FUD","text":"Screw the FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180754368","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180756917,"gmtCreate":1623228626439,"gmtModify":1704198801682,"author":{"id":"3581500477720390","authorId":"3581500477720390","name":"AliceLew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ceebb9941a060852ffc8d83298ef96c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581500477720390","authorIdStr":"3581500477720390"},"htmlText":"Comments thanks","listText":"Comments thanks","text":"Comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180756917","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4647551,"gmtCreate":1623228637669,"gmtModify":1663228270634,"authorId":3581500477720390,"author":{"id":3581500477720390,"idStr":"3581500477720390","authorId":3581500477720390,"name":"AliceLew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ceebb9941a060852ffc8d83298ef96c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180756917,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comment thanks","text":"comment thanks","html":"comment thanks"},{"id":4647579,"gmtCreate":1623228777928,"gmtModify":1663228269530,"authorId":3572261394011317,"author":{"id":3572261394011317,"idStr":"3572261394011317","authorId":3572261394011317,"name":"peilinnggg","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d41f25d478de6705e0b8c4acd71eb3fc","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.27%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180756917,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180759292,"gmtCreate":1623228468916,"gmtModify":1704198797369,"author":{"id":"3582007616276412","authorId":"3582007616276412","name":"Tencent2040","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9f0b2f501bd439ef3d417e80a2b4cb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582007616276412","authorIdStr":"3582007616276412"},"htmlText":"Let's see how it goes.&nbsp;","listText":"Let's see how it goes.&nbsp;","text":"Let's see how it goes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180759292","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180727834,"gmtCreate":1623228366928,"gmtModify":1704198794090,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585694968236372","authorIdStr":"3585694968236372"},"htmlText":"Go Tesla!","listText":"Go Tesla!","text":"Go Tesla!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180727834","repostId":1133238185,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133238185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623228281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133238185?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's China Scare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133238185","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.</li>\n <li>A recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.</li>\n <li>Domestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.</li>\n <li>China is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.</li>\n <li>Delivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.</p>\n<p>The EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.</p>\n<p>China is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (&lt;10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.</p>\n<p>The country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.</p>\n<p>Tesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a<b>~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20</b>(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.</p>\n<p>Deliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a47d413260c41df98fb656c150e3084\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"442\">Graphic fromInsideEVs</p>\n<p>Tesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6fa6456c49280125d4d2f493fdcd12\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1031\">Tesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>January: 15,484</li>\n <li>February: 18,318</li>\n <li>March: 35,478</li>\n <li>April: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)</li>\n <li>May: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a<b>27% m/m decline for Tesla</b>compared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.</p>\n<p>ThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately<b>37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveries</b>for the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for<b>33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenues</b>as \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.</p>\n<p>China's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiple<b>gives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.</b></p>\n<p>With that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.</p>\n<p>Tesla has also been<b>clouded by other negative press and scrutiny</b>about product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.</p>\n<p>Junheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.</p>\n<p>There's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially with<b>rising US-China tensions</b>. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.</p>\n<p>The element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,<b>could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation</b>, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.</p>\n<p>Overall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's China Scare</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's China Scare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433693-tesla-china-scare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133238185","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla saw a 27% m/m decline in deliveries for April with a majority of the reported figure exported, and a report last week pointed to a 50% decline for May.\nA recent report from Reuters disproved the prior report, showing deliveries rising 29% m/m, and up 88% excluding exports.\nDomestic players including NIO, XPeng, BYD, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have seen solid growth while Tesla's numbers declined.\nChina is ultra-important for Tesla, accounting for ~37.5% of Q1's deliveries and 33.8% of automotive revenues, with a projected segment valuation at $175 billion.\nDelivery declines, mounting negative press and increased scrutiny from Beijing threaten the segment's valuation, and open up 5-8% downside possibility.\n\nTesla's (TSLA) Thursday last week turned sour early in the afternoon, as a report stated that net order volumes slumped significantly for May. While the exact details of the report weren't fully corroborated, such an impact to deliveries raises the possibility of more troubles in China ahead. However, a recent report showed that deliveries in Mayjumped 29% m/m, reversing last week's report. Overall, Tesla's increased scrutiny in China and extensive competition in the watchful eyes of the CCP could possibly impact Tesla's growth potential in the domestic market, of which contributes substantial value to shares.\nThe EV landscape in China is highly competitive, with dozens of manufacturers finding high growth rates after entry to the market. China's government is looking to be favoring its domestic manufacturers with some favorable subsidy policies aiding NIO in the luxury market, as Tesla's recently-price-raised Model Y is ineligible for such subsidies.\nChina is an increasingly important market for electric vehicle manufacturers, with the country pushing its electrification agenda to drive substantial adoption of EV over the course of the decade, and smaller penetration (<10%) relative to total auto sales leaves much market share to capture. China presents a massive market opportunity with EV sales forecast to reach1.8 million vehiclesfor 2021, and possibly over3 million vehiclesby 2022.\nThe country is also increasingly important for Tesla, accounting for a solid proportion of deliveries, both in China and overseas, and revenues, as GF Shanghai ramps to its full potential. There were some glimpses ofmarket share troublethat arose late last year in China and Europe, and the May China data revives those troubles with the potential scale of Beijing's involvement still uncertain, but not looking favorable.\nTesla started off 2021 delivering 184,800 vehicles worldwide duringQ1, a~2.3% sequential improvement from Q4 '20(and about double y/y) even though deliveries are typically loaded in the back half of the year. Yet the potential weakness in China arising through Q2 and \"increased scrutiny\" put more pressure on the manufacturer's ability to deliver in the country in the traditional high buying season in September and October.\nDeliveries in China monthly during 2021 have shown strong demand in the broader market, but some fading sales for Tesla amidst the government scrutiny. Seasonal patterns were exhibited within a low volume February followed by a strong March; however, April was weaker m/m in the prior two years compared to 2018-19. BEV market share YTD is about 8.1%.\nGraphic fromInsideEVs\nTesla's monthly trajectory has followed the market, given that the Model 3 is the second-bestselling vehicles so far this year, with the Model Y the fifth. GM's (GM) joint-venture creation, the Hongguang Mini, has held the throne for some time, nearly reaching 100,000 units in just four months as its cumulative deliveries hit ~230,000 units in less than one year. Some vehicles like the Great Wall ORA (OTCPK:GWLLF), Chang'an BenBen, and the Clever and Roewe eRX5 from SAIC have seen massive growth at volume, and could be pushing for top five selling spots by the end of the year.\nTesla's cumulative deliveries in China have reached 102,887 units according to CPCA's data; broken down by month:\n\nJanuary: 15,484\nFebruary: 18,318\nMarch: 35,478\nApril: 25,845 (11,671 sales, 14,174 exports)\nMay: 9,800 net orders (reported last week); 33,463 units reported Tuesday (21,936 sales, 11,527 exports)\n\nWhile January through March exhibited m/m growth rates similar to the broader market,Aprilrepresented a27% m/m decline for Teslacompared to just a 12% m/m decline for EV volumes. Compared to a handful of other EV, Tesla looked poor: BYD's April sales rose 6.5% m/m to 25,450 units, XPeng's (XPEV) rose marginally m/m to 5,147 units, while Li's (LI) deliveries rose 13% m/m to 5,539. Tesla only held the third spot for retail sales, with BYD and SGMW both selling over 10,000 units more at 31,908 and 33,175 units respectively. However, Tesla's Q1 deliveries were nearly 5% lower than Wuling's, as theMinioutsold every other vehicle.\nThatQ1tally of 69,280 vehicles is approximately37.5% of Tesla's total vehicle deliveriesfor the quarter. Revenues generated by the segment were just over $3 billion, accounting for33.8% of total automotive and29.3% of total revenuesas \"lower ASP China-made vehicles became a larger percentage of our mix.\" For 2020, China accounted for just 21.1% of total revenues, so the segment is growing in importance, and the country now is undeniably one of the, if not the, most important regions for Tesla at the moment from the current revenue/delivery picture, as well as the long-term growth picture over the course of the next few years.\nChina's TTM revenues have reach $8.8 billion, but the segment could be poised to reach $13-14 billion this year (+98-110% y/y), given seasonality of demand in China and deliveries for Tesla. With consensus estimates pointing to about $49 billion in revenue for 2021 (+/-10% high/low figures), China is set to maintain a 27-29% revenue contribution.\nAt the moment, the China segment could be worth approximately 13x 2021 revenues, slightly above Tesla's ~11.8x 2021 forward multiple, which is justified by the segment's high revenue growth rate around 100% and overall importance to the company in terms of revenues and deliveries. Valuation at that multiplegives China an estimated valuation of $169-182 billion, or about $180 per share.\nWith that estimated valuation, the market's reaction at the moment, down about 4-5% intra-day following the news, looks normal. The reported May numbers, although not fully corroborated, are likely to be revealed within the next two weeks when CPCA releases its monthly report. And that has been the case, with the CPCA data showing the opposite held true, with deliveries rising, with shares up following the report.\nTesla has also beenclouded by other negative press and scrutinyabout product safety (see the recent brake bolt recalls) and data handling from Beijing could be contributing to declines in sales seen the past two months. There have been more \"local reports of Tesla brake failures,crashes and explosions,\" rumored 'highway bans' in Guangzhou,halted expansion plansat GF Shanghai and reports of a separate two-week production pause.\nJunheng Li of JL Warren Capital sees that the negative press could have a \"definitive material impacton Tesla branding, orders and deliveries for future months, although it’s hard to quantify exactly to what extent the declining demand is driven by concerns on Tesla’s safety features, or rising competition especially from Chinese automakers.\" Rising competition is visible, and Beijing's scrutinizing stance against Tesla is looming overhead.\nThere's a chance that Beijing would turn cold to Tesla, favoring fast-growing domestic rivals like NIO and XPeng who challenge Tesla from a technological and innovative standpoint, as it wants to have domestic players become some of the world's leading EV manufacturers, especially withrising US-China tensions. While it simply can't ban the manufacturer from selling there, it could turn to subsidy policies to incentivize purchases of domestic models - Tesla's Model Y above RMB300,000 is ineligible, while NIO's models are eligible at any price due to BaaS. Tesla has been using Shanghai as an export base for Europe, and added tariffs could mitigate the benefit of the factory as an export hub; Beijing could also start to turn the cold shoulder to Tesla in terms of the safety and technology and guide consumers to Chinese cars in the future.\nThe element of trust is important for businesses operating in China, as consumers can be distrusting of new, foreign, or unknown brands. Domestic brand growth and improvement has seen more growth of domestic manufacturers over foreign, especially in the smartphone market, and also now in the EV space. Widespread negative press and the incidents arising with Tesla do erode trust, from both the consumer and the government. Such loss of trust could see more difficulties in sales throughout the remainder of the year, especially if Beijing works to stall sales growth by promoting distrust of the brand through negative press. A scenario of that sort, which impacts deliveries through Q3 and Q4, the two most important quarters for Tesla,could shave 25% off of the China segment valuation, or ~$42-46 per share, another ~7% downside purely from China.\nOverall, the market's reaction to the reported decline in May sales has merit, as the segment is highly important to the manufacturer from delivery and revenue contribution currently and over the course of the next few years with triple-digit growth potential in 2021 alone. April sales fell 27% m/m, while some domestic manufacturers saw sequential growth, and May figures reversed course and showed a strong gain after a report pointed to a sharp fall in orders. While Q1 deliveries in China were strong at nearly 70,000 units, Q2's deliveries already look to face a large impact, with potential factors of the decline including domestic competition and a barrage of widespread negative press. With seasonality in Q3 and Q4, Tesla could be facing a tough uphill climb against rising domestic players backed by the government, negative press and a loss of trust, and possible headwinds brought about in the face of rising US-China tensions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":22,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}