下半年，医药基金将成最靓的“崽”？

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下半年，医药基金将成最靓的“崽”？

苏宁金融研究院2021-05-08

自今年2月沪深300大幅下挫以来，市场一直维持震荡行情。不过，五一劳动节前的一波市场行情，让不少明星基金产品重新回到大众的视野当中。随着货币市场及财政政策的逐渐明朗，总体来看，公募基金下半年不会面临大规模赎回的压力，但需要警惕市场的反弹导致基民陆续选择赎回止损，削弱反弹力度。笔者预判，医药行业会成为下半年的关注点。一、医药基金跑赢大盘以2021年2月10日为基准，笔者选取了张坤的易方达中小盘...

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七五一四
·2021-05-10
[思考] [正經]
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53570b80
·2021-05-10
?
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- 53570b80:
  确实大大问号疫情和估值让医药股在云端可高可低
  2021-05-10
  Reply
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maigis
·2021-05-10
[財迷]
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远离中丐
·2021-05-09
目前醫藥反彈力度確實比較大，但需要關注下週回調
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新加坡的大螃蟹
·2021-05-09
求回覆點贊
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1
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新加坡的大螃蟹
·2021-05-09
eloleo
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Jessie8590
·2021-05-09
[財迷]
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小闸蟹
·2021-05-09
[財迷] [得意]
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2
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haiwei183
·2021-05-09
會不會崽，還真不知道[微笑]
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jimmy1983
·2021-05-09
醫藥是以後主流
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Ysw16888
·2021-05-08
讚我回覆我
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- 新加坡的大螃蟹:
  你好
  2021-05-09
  Reply
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- 林癸源:
  [微笑]
  2021-05-08
  Reply
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kimxuan
·2021-05-08
評論我謝謝
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- Ysw16888:
  OK
  2021-05-08
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无欲2057
·2021-05-08
應該是這樣纔對！
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求金
·2021-05-08
[暗中觀察]
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SX5XCz2NmaZk4KFourQInQ><strong>苏宁金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自今年2月沪深300大幅下挫以来，市场一直维持震荡行情。不过，五一劳动节前的一波市场行情，让不少明星基金产品重新回到大众的视野当中。\n随着货币市场及财政政策的逐渐明朗，总体来看，公募基金下半年不会面临大规模赎回的压力，但需要警惕市场的反弹导致基民陆续选择赎回止损，削弱反弹力度。笔者预判，医药行业会成为下半年的关注点。\n一、医药基金跑赢大盘\n以2021年2月10日为基准，笔者选取了张坤的易方达中小盘...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SX5XCz2NmaZk4KFourQInQ\">Source 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\"cub\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce64d2b80721b62b3d88145eb1b66640","symbols_score_info":{"160635":0.9},"content_text":"自今年2月沪深300大幅下挫以来，市场一直维持震荡行情。不过，五一劳动节前的一波市场行情，让不少明星基金产品重新回到大众的视野当中。\n随着货币市场及财政政策的逐渐明朗，总体来看，公募基金下半年不会面临大规模赎回的压力，但需要警惕市场的反弹导致基民陆续选择赎回止损，削弱反弹力度。笔者预判，医药行业会成为下半年的关注点。\n一、医药基金跑赢大盘\n以2021年2月10日为基准，笔者选取了张坤的易方达中小盘、袁芳的工银瑞信文体产业A及葛兰的中欧医疗健康A进行分析。\n\n可以发现，除张坤的易方达中小盘跑输沪深300以外，袁芳的工银瑞信文体产业和葛兰的中欧医疗健康都已跑赢沪深300，复权后净值均已经达到了2021年2月10日最高点的93%左右。翻看中欧医疗健康的一季报，面对这样优异的成绩，葛兰只做了简单地概括：我们总体维持了高仓位运作，在长期看好的创新药产业链、医疗服务、高质量仿制药的龙头企业等方向进行了着重布局。\n选基金选好行业很关键。医药行业本身的成长性如何？笔者选取了医药基金最常用的比较指数是中证医药卫生指数，将其与沪深300指数比较：从业绩角度来看，无论是短期还是中长期，中证医药卫生指数都跑赢了沪深300指数。在波动率方面，中证医药卫生指数波动率总体高于沪深300指数。对于风险偏好稍高的基民来说，中证医药指数似乎是比沪深300指数更好的选择。\n注：数据统计截至今年4月30日。为排除分红影响，与指数计算口径一致，中欧医疗健康A为单位净值数据。\n而葛兰掌管的中欧医疗健康基金与中证医药卫生指数相比，基金经理的主动管理能力凸显。2017年至今，这支基金跑出了3倍多的收益，远超中证医药卫生指数。无论是大盘估值膨胀期间，还是近期大盘下挫震荡期间，葛兰的中欧医疗健康A都跑赢了基准。总体来说，葛兰算是穿越牛熊的优秀基金经理了。\n\n那么，现在的医药行业处于什么位置？目前，医药行业整体PE(TTM)处于历史较高水平，但相对于沪深300的PE(TTM)，医药行业整体处于相对稳定的区间。\n\n二、医药行业的两个“确定性”\n医药板块表现突出，医药主题基金更是“乘风起舞”。且医疗行业，不管从短期还是长期来看，确定性都强。\n短期上，新冠疫情会带来“确定性”。\n从美、日、韩三国的疫苗接种与新增病例情况来看，日韩两国当前每百人新冠疫苗接种量较低，自今年2月开始普及疫苗以来，当日新增病例与疫苗接种量同增长。美国疫苗普及率相对较高，每百人接种量接近75剂次，当日新增病例也在震荡下跌的趋势中。但值得注意的是，美国当日新增病例依然超过3万，疫苗的有效性在短期内无法得到验证。\n\n且针对病毒变异情况，目前依然没有有效的控制手段，全球疫情短期内不会有太大的改善。未来，各国都将继续加大对医疗方面的投入。\n鉴于国外主要的医疗物资生产国及发展中国家饱受疫情困扰，中国医疗物资对外出口的短期确定性有望变成中长期确定性。\n长期上，我国人口老龄化也会带来“确定性”。\n第7次人口普查结果有待公布。但，毋庸置疑，中国人口老龄化问题越来越凸显。\n已有的数据显示，截至2019年底，我国65周岁及以上人口已达1.76亿，较2018年新增945万人。与此同时，2019年我国人均预期寿命达77.3岁，但人均健康预期寿命仅为68.7岁，平均有8年多带病生存时间。\n目前，我国卫生总费用占GDP比重为5.2%，远低于世界平均水平的9.9%。随着医疗条件的逐步升级，慢性疾病将越来越受到重视，而慢性疾病对药物和医疗的依赖性极高，这将有力地推动医疗业的发展。从这个角度来看，医药类基金依然是下半年的关注点。\n三、哪些医药基金可买\n未来，哪些医药基金值得买呢？\n以下是成立时间超过2年，规模超过10亿，年化超过20%的医药医疗题材的主动管理型基金，可供大家参考：","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":190897973,"gmtCreate":1620609873692,"gmtModify":1704345418048,"author":{"id":"3445909723757749","authorId":"3445909723757749","name":"七五一四","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfdcbe3a28d5adc65090a3d278cb395d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3445909723757749","authorIdStr":"3445909723757749"},"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;[正經]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;[正經]&nbsp;","text":"[思考] 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