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U.S.-Iran Agreement "Rashomon": How to Manage the Strait of Hormuz? To Abandon High-Enriched Uranium or Not?

Deep News05-24 17:11

As U.S.-Iran negotiations enter the final sprint, significant information discrepancies have emerged over the core terms. Trump announced that the agreement is "basically reached," yet the U.S. and Iran have presented entirely contradictory statements regarding the disposal of high-enriched uranium and the management of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the true nature of a memorandum of understanding shrouded in heavy mist.

According to reports, Trump posted on social media on the 23rd, stating that the U.S. and Iran have "basically reached" an agreement involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pending final confirmation by both sides and relevant countries. "Final details of the agreement are under discussion and will be announced as soon as possible."

One of the core elements of the agreement, as reported, is Iran's commitment to hand over its high-enriched uranium stockpile. However, Iran immediately strongly denied this, calling the related reports "completely untrue," and stating that current negotiations focus solely on ceasing hostilities, with nuclear issues not even mentioned. Descriptions of the method and timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz also differ between the two sides.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blockaded by Iran since the early stages of the war, placing sustained pressure on global energy prices. The implementation of an agreement could partially alleviate supply pressures. However, deep-seated differences over nuclear terms and the high ambiguity of agreement details still leave significant uncertainty about the final outcome, with U.S. Republican hawks already voicing strong opposition.

U.S. Version: Surrendering Uranium Stockpile is a Key Condition According to reports citing two anonymous U.S. officials, core elements of the negotiations include Tehran's explicit commitment to abandon its high-enriched uranium stockpile. Data from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that Iran currently holds approximately 970 pounds (about 440 kilograms) of uranium enriched to 60%.

U.S. officials stated that specific disposal methods for the uranium stockpile would be determined separately in subsequent nuclear negotiations. However, U.S. negotiators have explicitly warned Iran through intermediaries: if the initial agreement does not include relevant commitments regarding the uranium stockpile, the U.S. will abandon negotiations and resume military actions.

The core framework of this memorandum of understanding is: ending the war, gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and initiating follow-up negotiations lasting at least 30 days.

According to reports citing a U.S. official, the memorandum of understanding (MOU) to be signed by both sides would be valid for 60 days, extendable by mutual agreement. The draft agreement includes Iran's commitment to "never seek nuclear weapons," as well as provisions for negotiations on suspending uranium enrichment projects and removing high-enriched uranium stockpiles, while allowing Iran to freely sell oil during this period.

Regarding economic terms, according to reports citing U.S. officials, Iran would only regain access to its frozen overseas assets after both sides finalize a nuclear agreement. The related funds would be channeled into a so-called "reconstruction fund" proposed by the U.S. and its allies to maintain Iran's willingness to negotiate.

Iranian Version: Nuclear Issues Not Mentioned at All Statements from Iranian officials show significant discrepancies with the U.S. version.

According to reports citing three anonymous senior Iranian officials, the memorandum agreed upon by Tehran includes: cessation of fighting on all fronts (including Lebanon), reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without any tolls, lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade, and the release of $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets overseas. The three officials explicitly stated that the memorandum makes no mention of Iran's nuclear program, and nuclear issues will be negotiated separately within 30 to 60 days.

According to reports citing informed sources, Iran has never proposed to the U.S. a 10-year suspension of uranium enrichment, and related reports are incorrect; all topics in recent U.S.-Iran exchanges have been limited to ceasing hostilities. Iran explicitly rejected claims by The New York Times and U.S. officials that "Iran has agreed to transfer high-enriched uranium and suspend uranium enrichment for 10 years," calling such reports "completely untrue."

Strait of Hormuz: Reopening Roadmap Still Disputed The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global oil and gas transportation channel. Since its effective blockade by Iran in the early stages of the war, global energy prices have risen significantly. Implementation of an agreement could alleviate this situation, but descriptions of the method and timeline for reopening still differ between the two sides.

Iran explicitly stated that Trump's remarks about "the Strait of Hormuz will be opened" are "incomplete."

Iran emphasizes that the Strait of Hormuz will remain under its management. According to the latest exchanged texts, even if an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be "managed" by Iran. Furthermore, although Iran agrees to restore the number of ships allowed through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels, this does not mean the strait will return to its pre-war "free passage" status.

According to reports citing informed sources, the draft memorandum sets a 30-day timeframe for procedures related to the Strait of Hormuz, requiring the number of passable ships to be restored to pre-war levels within 30 days.

According to reports citing three Iranian officials, the strait will be opened free of charge to commercial vessels, with Iran not collecting tolls; simultaneously, the U.S. must lift its maritime blockade on Iran. According to reports citing a U.S. official, the faster Iran clears mines and restores shipping, the quicker the blockade will be lifted.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on social media, stating that Iran "seeks peace with strength, advances diplomacy with dignity, and firmly defends territorial integrity, independence, and rights." Iranian diplomat Baghaei referenced a historical anecdote from the 3rd century involving the Roman Empire and Persia on platform X, implying that the Roman emperor was eventually forced to compromise with the Persians, without directly mentioning Trump or the nuclear agreement.

High-Enriched Uranium Disposition: The Biggest Point of Contention in the Agreement The issue of high-enriched uranium is the core topic with the deepest divergence and the most difficult to bypass in this round of negotiations.

According to reports citing U.S. officials, military planners have prepared multiple plans for Trump to strike Iran's uranium stockpile, including using bunker-busting bombs to attack the underground storage area at the Isfahan nuclear facility. This facility was targeted by U.S. Tomahawk missiles last year, burying most of the high-enriched uranium underground.

Additionally, Trump considered authorizing a joint U.S.-Israeli commando operation to directly retrieve the uranium stockpile, but this high-risk plan was ultimately not approved. U.S. officials also noted that there is precedent from the 2015 Obama administration nuclear agreement: Iran could transfer its stockpiled uranium to Russia or convert it into a low-enriched form not directly usable for nuclear weapons.

Iran strongly denied reports by U.S. media that Iran committed to handing over its high-enriched uranium stockpile.

According to reports, Iran has not accepted any action arrangements regarding its nuclear program, and such claims are characterized as "completely untrue." Three Iranian officials also stated that the final disposition of nuclear issues will be negotiated separately 30 to 60 days after the initial memorandum is signed.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz expressed "deep concern" about the potential agreement, stating that if the agreement allows Iran to continue uranium enrichment, develop nuclear weapons, and maintain effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, it would be a "disastrous mistake." Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker criticized the agreement even before Trump announced it was close to being reached, stating that a 60-day ceasefire would nullify the achievements of previous military operations.

Multiple Countries Push for Agreement, Still Awaiting Official Confirmation Despite unresolved disputes over nuclear terms, several Middle Eastern and Muslim countries have expressed support.

According to reports citing three anonymous Middle Eastern officials, leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain expressed support for the plan in a phone call led by Trump and urged Trump to accept it. Pakistan and Qatar are reportedly the main intermediary mediators facilitating the draft memorandum, with the only face-to-face negotiation between the two sides held in Pakistan to date.

Trump stated that he had a separate phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding the agreement, describing progress as "very smooth," but Netanyahu's office has not yet issued an official response. Whether the ongoing conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah can be incorporated into the agreement framework remains unclear.

Currently, neither the U.S. nor Iran has officially confirmed the agreement's content. Whether the agreement can ultimately be finalized amidst detailed differences remains to be seen.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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