Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform

seekingalpha2021-05-19

Summary Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates. The most recent earnings report shows the business is ...

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ProsPaddles
·2021-05-20
Somehow alibaba reminded me of amazon in its earlier day. The stock price doesn't do justice to Alibaba. I believe baba will go to the moon!
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YQ17
·2021-05-20
Baba is a good stock
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SSVC
·2021-05-20
Yeah Appreciate your comments and response Thanks
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4
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- deeplearning:
  done, please like and reply~
  2021-05-20
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- 小小馒头:
  Sure!
  2021-05-20
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同是天涯沦落人
·2021-05-20
thanks.
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1
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120PL
·2021-05-20
Good
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Weijj
·2021-05-20
?? bqbq to the moon
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2
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Venus888
·2021-05-20
Hope it rise soon. Pls response to my comment. Thanks
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2
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- Venus888:
  ok
  2021-05-20
  Reply
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- imteng87:
  Like n comment pls. Thanks!
  2021-05-20
  Reply
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- Weijj:
  ??
  2021-05-20
  Reply
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KLC
·2021-05-20
?
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2
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- IvanAung:
  Ok
  2021-05-20
  Reply
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kuehlapis
·2021-05-20
give a like and comment for good luck! ☘️
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3
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- kuehlapis:
  ok!
  2021-05-20
  Reply
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- andrew123:
  ok give u good luck. like yr u like mine. ok.
  2021-05-20
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ynngy
·2021-05-20
when
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- IvanAung:
  Ok
  2021-05-20
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SandDust
·2021-05-20
The problem is the competition from Meituan, JD in grocery delivery. They will have to keep investing to beat off competition
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ty91
·2021-05-20
Like and comment please
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2
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- Jazling:
  ResponD Pls
  2021-05-20
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Matilda
·2021-05-20
Very detailed analysis
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CSE1949
·2021-05-20
Really alibababaaa
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3
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377tkr
·2021-05-20
Any suggestion for good entry price?
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- MorphyInc:
  Shorts got lucky and had a chance to cover today. High volume block trades end of day.
  PE at 25, high CF. only thing holding BABA back is political uncertainty. take those away and its a great buy
  2021-05-20
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- keaty:
  hard to say since gov intervention. hope baba will find its feet again
  2021-05-20
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CK11
·2021-05-20
Innovative company!
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- CK11:
  [强]
  2021-05-20
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- KF73:
  Yes, more to come
  2021-05-20
  Reply
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"09988","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴-W","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","article_id":"1134860607","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"translate_title":"阿里巴巴-SW：该股将跑赢","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":130015783,"gmtCreate":1621494867842,"gmtModify":1704358543597,"author":{"id":"3571919991986405","authorId":"3571919991986405","name":"ProsPaddles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5743775abc150fab8749a749f0511b63","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571919991986405","idStr":"3571919991986405"},"htmlText":"Somehow alibaba reminded me of amazon in its earlier day. The stock price doesn't do justice to Alibaba. I believe baba will go to the moon!&nbsp;","listText":"Somehow alibaba reminded me of amazon in its earlier day. The stock price doesn't do justice to Alibaba. I believe baba will go to the moon!&nbsp;","text":"Somehow alibaba reminded me of amazon in its earlier day. The stock price doesn't do justice to Alibaba. I believe baba will go to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130015783","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197485666,"gmtCreate":1621479142355,"gmtModify":1704358275828,"author":{"id":"3579605390417452","authorId":"3579605390417452","name":"YQ17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27a39a8720408cb33a5ee4fb46fdc580","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579605390417452","idStr":"3579605390417452"},"htmlText":"Baba is a good stock","listText":"Baba is a good stock","text":"Baba is a good stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197485666","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197561693,"gmtCreate":1621474105412,"gmtModify":1704358152194,"author":{"id":"3574906731000207","authorId":"3574906731000207","name":"SSVC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545a5ea462ff4ac7cc100bd3d8d97f72","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574906731000207","idStr":"3574906731000207"},"htmlText":"Yeah Appreciate your comments and response Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Yeah Appreciate your comments and response Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Yeah Appreciate your comments and response Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197561693","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4392143,"gmtCreate":1621521613143,"gmtModify":1680789943625,"authorId":3574295750075516,"author":{"id":3574295750075516,"idStr":"3574295750075516","authorId":3574295750075516,"name":"deeplearning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2aba15d86bd565c323909be00778983","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197561693,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done, please like and reply~","text":"done, please like and reply~","html":"done, please like and reply~"},{"id":4387478,"gmtCreate":1621486330932,"gmtModify":1680789861284,"authorId":3580629550243320,"author":{"id":3580629550243320,"idStr":"3580629550243320","authorId":3580629550243320,"name":"小小馒头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8662af09a6a7d2e9548f6a2e76832bc6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197561693,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sure!","text":"Sure!","html":"Sure!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197561976,"gmtCreate":1621474084595,"gmtModify":1704358150097,"author":{"id":"3554323022733956","authorId":"3554323022733956","name":"同是天涯沦落人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/218c98f99603705b961006c26525b95e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554323022733956","idStr":"3554323022733956"},"htmlText":"thanks.","listText":"thanks.","text":"thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197561976","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197272470,"gmtCreate":1621471394590,"gmtModify":1704358075304,"author":{"id":"3577829273313897","authorId":"3577829273313897","name":"120PL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c97607b34c75eab2d8d4b0216817b700","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3577829273313897","idStr":"3577829273313897"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197272470","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197262280,"gmtCreate":1621469588440,"gmtModify":1704358021731,"author":{"id":"3572655517065538","authorId":"3572655517065538","name":"Weijj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20d2b1e1f188a79a0b6023a00c75703","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572655517065538","idStr":"3572655517065538"},"htmlText":"?? bqbq to the moon","listText":"?? bqbq to the moon","text":"?? bqbq to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197262280","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197263068,"gmtCreate":1621469432354,"gmtModify":1704358014771,"author":{"id":"3572313172431959","authorId":"3572313172431959","name":"Venus888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb10c539f367e4d8f1ae8ddf081bfdf","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572313172431959","idStr":"3572313172431959"},"htmlText":"Hope it rise soon. Pls response to my comment. Thanks","listText":"Hope it rise soon. Pls response to my comment. Thanks","text":"Hope it rise soon. Pls response to my comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197263068","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4384639,"gmtCreate":1621471787401,"gmtModify":1680789812893,"authorId":3572313172431959,"author":{"id":3572313172431959,"idStr":"3572313172431959","authorId":3572313172431959,"name":"Venus888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb10c539f367e4d8f1ae8ddf081bfdf","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197263068,"type":1,"supId":4384226,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":4384226,"gmtCreate":1621470455304,"gmtModify":1680789802797,"authorId":3567166157226906,"author":{"id":3567166157226906,"idStr":"3567166157226906","authorId":3567166157226906,"name":"imteng87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b7b030b8b0786177d474964394bab4","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.00%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197263068,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like n comment pls. Thanks!","text":"Like n comment pls. Thanks!","html":"Like n comment pls. Thanks!"},{"id":4383948,"gmtCreate":1621469617906,"gmtModify":1680789802050,"authorId":3572655517065538,"author":{"id":3572655517065538,"idStr":"3572655517065538","authorId":3572655517065538,"name":"Weijj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20d2b1e1f188a79a0b6023a00c75703","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197263068,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"??","text":"??","html":"??"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197236913,"gmtCreate":1621468236732,"gmtModify":1704357978054,"author":{"id":"3567916089112278","authorId":"3567916089112278","name":"KLC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5f29591734279d9235e132e16aa719","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567916089112278","idStr":"3567916089112278"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197236913","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4383680,"gmtCreate":1621468608698,"gmtModify":1680789787599,"authorId":3579300278905475,"author":{"id":3579300278905475,"idStr":"3579300278905475","authorId":3579300278905475,"name":"IvanAung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a24371779f14f0f964eb414b9cf1812","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.15","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197236913,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197299675,"gmtCreate":1621467663797,"gmtModify":1704357960354,"author":{"id":"3574029017802033","authorId":"3574029017802033","name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574029017802033","idStr":"3574029017802033"},"htmlText":"give a like and comment for good luck! ☘️","listText":"give a like and comment for good luck! ☘️","text":"give a like and comment for good luck! ☘️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197299675","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4385669,"gmtCreate":1621475444139,"gmtModify":1680789828203,"authorId":3574029017802033,"author":{"id":3574029017802033,"idStr":"3574029017802033","authorId":3574029017802033,"name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197299675,"type":1,"supId":4384206,"prevId":0,"content":"ok!","text":"ok!","html":"ok!"},{"id":4384206,"gmtCreate":1621470412233,"gmtModify":1680789797660,"authorId":3576260758860416,"author":{"id":3576260758860416,"idStr":"3576260758860416","authorId":3576260758860416,"name":"andrew123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2a1eaba26272212d42018e60e78b422","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197299675,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok give u good luck. like yr u like mine. ok.","text":"ok give u good luck. like yr u like mine. ok.","html":"ok give u good luck. like yr u like mine. ok."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197299912,"gmtCreate":1621467646036,"gmtModify":1704357958877,"author":{"id":"3575273190676019","authorId":"3575273190676019","name":"ynngy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b764c34a3be814280b5ed823bbb9c7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575273190676019","idStr":"3575273190676019"},"htmlText":"when","listText":"when","text":"when","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197299912","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4383683,"gmtCreate":1621468615184,"gmtModify":1680789787970,"authorId":3579300278905475,"author":{"id":3579300278905475,"idStr":"3579300278905475","authorId":3579300278905475,"name":"IvanAung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a24371779f14f0f964eb414b9cf1812","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.15","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197299912,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197290500,"gmtCreate":1621467642400,"gmtModify":1704357958712,"author":{"id":"3581331938298103","authorId":"3581331938298103","name":"SandDust","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6083d742fc232449a625fb122842c8","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581331938298103","idStr":"3581331938298103"},"htmlText":"The problem is the competition from Meituan, JD in grocery delivery. They will have to keep investing to beat off competition&nbsp;","listText":"The problem is the competition from Meituan, JD in grocery delivery. They will have to keep investing to beat off competition&nbsp;","text":"The problem is the competition from Meituan, JD in grocery delivery. They will have to keep investing to beat off competition","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197290500","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197671109,"gmtCreate":1621466829601,"gmtModify":1704357933587,"author":{"id":"3579421475844844","authorId":"3579421475844844","name":"ty91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d9451c5894d6ca0b4485bad0568f720","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579421475844844","idStr":"3579421475844844"},"htmlText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197671109","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4383865,"gmtCreate":1621469337811,"gmtModify":1680789802715,"authorId":3566821013640470,"author":{"id":3566821013640470,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorId":3566821013640470,"name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.25","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197671109,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ResponD Pls","text":"ResponD Pls","html":"ResponD Pls"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197644221,"gmtCreate":1621466629763,"gmtModify":1704357928037,"author":{"id":"3562299666283137","authorId":"3562299666283137","name":"Matilda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56b449b5f02707f34ba8f83016060ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3562299666283137","idStr":"3562299666283137"},"htmlText":"Very detailed analysis","listText":"Very detailed analysis","text":"Very detailed analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197644221","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197644384,"gmtCreate":1621466616148,"gmtModify":1704357927711,"author":{"id":"3580326019617119","authorId":"3580326019617119","name":"CSE1949","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1693e6679386c33f893f10a8b7af1e4e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580326019617119","idStr":"3580326019617119"},"htmlText":"Really alibababaaa","listText":"Really alibababaaa","text":"Really alibababaaa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197644384","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197646507,"gmtCreate":1621466519809,"gmtModify":1704357924905,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"htmlText":"Any suggestion for good entry price?","listText":"Any suggestion for good entry price?","text":"Any suggestion for good entry price?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197646507","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4384537,"gmtCreate":1621471407380,"gmtModify":1680789806223,"authorId":3575256884333459,"author":{"id":3575256884333459,"idStr":"3575256884333459","authorId":3575256884333459,"name":"MorphyInc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa62407baa49ccbcbca7d374aa8a803","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197646507,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Shorts got lucky and had a chance to cover today. High volume block trades end of day.\n PE at 25, high CF. only thing holding BABA back is political uncertainty. take those away and its a great buy","text":"Shorts got lucky and had a chance to cover today. High volume block trades end of day.\n PE at 25, high CF. only thing holding BABA back is political uncertainty. take those away and its a great buy","html":"Shorts got lucky and had a chance to cover today. High volume block trades end of day.\n PE at 25, high CF. only thing holding BABA back is political uncertainty. take those away and its a great buy"},{"id":4383868,"gmtCreate":1621469340032,"gmtModify":1680789804392,"authorId":3578631759891221,"author":{"id":3578631759891221,"idStr":"3578631759891221","authorId":3578631759891221,"name":"keaty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf9d00e41b755619a4b4c3eb6f05541","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197646507,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hard to say since gov intervention. hope baba will find its feet again","text":"hard to say since gov intervention. hope baba will find its feet again","html":"hard to say since gov intervention. hope baba will find its feet again"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197646645,"gmtCreate":1621466515887,"gmtModify":1704357924408,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"htmlText":"Innovative company!&nbsp;","listText":"Innovative company!&nbsp;","text":"Innovative company!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197646645","repostId":1134860607,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134860607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134860607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:04","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134860607","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a busine","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.</li>\n <li>The most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.</li>\n <li>Alibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.</li>\n <li>BABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66066fc811491652c040dc6e50b66b6d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly&nbsp;results&nbsp;showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n<ul>\n <li>Annual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.</li>\n <li>Quarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.</li>\n <li>Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long&nbsp;investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826022c9bd39f18eb42d102ea49ca31d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd645ab78acb4923a6a1e902db9f047d\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"135\">Source: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&amp;P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d15d3d672161b71d084f3f0d2682f4e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"450\">Source: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Stock Set To Outperform\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429938-alibaba-the-stock-set-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134860607","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is currently trading at ~18.7x EBITDA, which is an attractive multiple for a business that's growing at double-digit rates.\nThe most recent earnings report shows the business is growing strongly, despite facing a one-time fine from the Chinese government.\nAlibaba stock is set to outperform as it is sitting well below its 200-day moving average.\nBABA has generated juicy returns over the next 12 and 24 months every time it has been here.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMr. Market is not happy with Alibaba Group (BABA) these days and has been quoting the stock at significantly lower prices than its all-time high just 8 months ago. BABA hit an all-time high of $319 in October 2020. As of this writing, BABA is trading at ~$214, which is 34% below its all-time high.\nIn my opinion, Mr. Market is giving investors a great opportunity to grab shares of a great company with strong growth potential at highly attractive valuation. Simply said, BABA looks like a good buying opportunity when considering recent growth trends as well the stock setup and valuation. Therefore, I upsized my existing position.\nThis article covers Alibaba's most recent earnings results, the stock setup going forward, a valuation update using EV/EBITDA, and key risks in the investment. Without further ado, let us dive in.\nEarnings Report Highlights\nThe latest quarterly results showed Alibaba's core businesses continue to higher revenues and higher profits. All key metrics are growing at double-digit rates. Here is a summary of the key metrics that I am most focused on from the report, along with my opinion on what it means:\n\nAnnual active users and monthly active users grew by 32 and 23 million, respectively. This means that as e-commerce continues to take market share, more people continue to flock to Alibaba ecosystem. This indicator suggests the business keeps adding new users, which is surely a positive factor for the stock.\nQuarterly total revenue growth was 64% over the prior year, driven by inorganic growth due to acquisitions as well as organic growth. Organic growth was roughly 40% over the prior year. This is also a positive as it shows the business continues to grow at strong rates, along with reaping the benefits of recent acquisitions.\nQuarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% over the prior year, and its growth rate stands at 25% over the TTM (trailing twelve months). Although 18% of EBITDA growth is quite high compared to most other businesses, the deceleration is not ideal. This implies lower profit margins as it is tracking lower than revenue growth. My take on this is goldilocks. Not ideal, but not terrible.\n\nIn addition to the strong business metrics, there was something unique in last quarter's result. Something that seems to be impacting BABA negatively.\nThe last quarter was unique because it included a big fine from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China due to monopolistic behavior. After a long investigation, the government fined Alibaba approximately $2.8 billion as a result of engaging in monopolistic tactics that suppressed competition. The fine caused Alibaba to report a rare operating loss. Unlike many fast-growing companies, Alibaba does not typically report operating losses because it is a highly profitable business. That makes this fine stand out.\nIn my opinion, this fine is a critical factor that explains why Alibaba stock has been declining. Receiving a big fine from the government is no good thing. However, I do not believe the fine is a big deal because it represents more of a \"slap in the wrist\" than a real threat to the long-term viability of the business. Here is why.\nFirst of all, the fine is relatively small. Yes. $2.8 billion is a lot of money, but in relative terms, it is not that much. It represents only 2.5% of global revenues and less than 1% of EV (enterprise value). Relative to the size of Alibaba, it is small potatoes. No big deal.\nSecondly, the fine is technically a one-time expense that will not probably repeat in the future. That means Alibaba should be reporting an operating profit next quarter as Alibaba promised the Chinese government to \"serve our responsibility to society and will operate in accordance with the law with utmost diligence\". Furthermore, Alibaba holds more than $49 billion of cash, meaning the fine will be easily paid and won't break the bank.\nThe stock setup for the next 12 and 24 months\nAs of this writing, BABA is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average (about 18% below to be precise). Historically, every time BABA has been in this spot it has performed very well in the future.\nMost investors probably know that Alibaba is still a relatively young stock. It has been trading publicly for about 7 years. Its IPO was in September 2014. Since its IPO, BABA has traded this far below its 200-day moving average only a couple of times, as shown in the chart below by the green circles.\n\nEvery time the stock was there was because of some bad news that impacted Mr. Market sentiment. In late 2018, the trade war between US and China that former President Donald Trump started impacted Alibaba along with many other Chinese stocks. This time, it seems to be the big fine from the government coupled with decelerating profit growth that's causing negative sentiment.\nAs I show in the table below, every time the stock has been there, buyers of the stock were handsomely rewarded by strong returns over the next 12 or 24 months. The table below shows total return over the next 12 and 24 months, after Alibaba has gone this far below its 200 day moving average.\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Author computations\nTo make things even better, BABA outperformed the S&P 500 each time it has been trading this far below its 200-day moving average (except on the 12 months following July 8, 2015), which means today's setup is great for both absolute and relative returns.\nGiven that BABA is in a similar setup this time around compared to those dates, will BABA outperform the S&P over the next 12 or 24 months? Will it produce enormous returns like it did last time? My bet is it will because history suggests BABA is on the cusp of staging a meaningful rally. But as everyone here should know, there are no guarantees. Time will tell.\nValuation\nMy preferred valuation method is using EV/EBITDA (aka EBITDA multiple) because it eliminates biases from different tax bases as well as capital structure. Given Alibaba is mostly a Chinese company, this valuation method allows for comparison with other US companies.\nUsing the actual EBITDA of $30.04 billion over the TTM, the current stock price implies an EBITDA multiple of 18.7x. For a business that is growing at double-digit rates, that multiple seems quite cheap.\nMy calculation of EV and EV/EBITDA is shown below, using the RMB/USD exchange rate as of the balance sheet date.\nSource: earnings report, author computations\nAttentive readers will probably wonder if the $30 billion of EBITDA includes or excludes the fine discussed above. Because that fine is most likely a one-time expense that won't repeat, it is excluded from the last 12 months EBITDA.\nRisks\nThe main risk with Alibaba is political risk. As mentioned above, the Chinese government has recently fined Alibaba. Because Alibaba generates most of its revenues in China, there is a chance the Chinese government launches one or more investigations, which means there could be more fines coming. The next one could be more damaging.\nAdditionally, Alibaba generates most of its revenues from China, and its functional currency is the Chinese RMB (Renminbi). Therefore, investors that are focused on generating returns in USD are taking currency risk by investing in Alibaba. If the RMB depreciates relative to the USD, then the stock could be negatively impacted even if revenues and profits keep growing.\nInvestor Conclusion\nThe most recent earnings results show once again that Alibaba's growth machine is robust. Revenue and profits keep growing at double-digit rates, and the fine from the government is now in the rear-view mirror. These growth rates alone are a great reason to buy the stock.\nAdditionally, BABA is trading about 34% below itsall-time high and 18% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, there have been two times when BABA traded this far below its 200-day moving average. Both times BABA staged a strong comeback and produced enormous returns for those who bought the dip.\nAlibaba is trading at 18.7x EBITDA, and that multiple looks highly attractive to buy the stock. Despite the risks, the rewards seem to be worth it.\nFor those reasons, BABA seems to be a great buy opportunity currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4385351,"gmtCreate":1621474221428,"gmtModify":1680789818185,"authorId":3581899057268262,"author":{"id":3581899057268262,"idStr":"3581899057268262","authorId":3581899057268262,"name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197646645,"type":1,"supId":4383098,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"},{"id":4383098,"gmtCreate":1621466669396,"gmtModify":1680789784330,"authorId":3579568649549102,"author":{"id":3579568649549102,"idStr":"3579568649549102","authorId":3579568649549102,"name":"KF73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08cb18d8dbd8d12a776f947554bdb6e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197646645,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes, more to come","text":"Yes, more to come","html":"Yes, more to come"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":68,"commentSize":38,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}