宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升

华尔街见闻2022-08-12

美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。周五公布的数据显示，...

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Kokkeng1119
·2022-08-15
[驚訝]
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JWZ137
·2022-08-14
Wow
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Paggie
·2022-08-13
閱
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haiwei183
·2022-08-13
look
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hhyw
·2022-08-13
好
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MyKhoo
·2022-08-13
K
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Nicole_L
·2022-08-13
Noted
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王婆卖股
·2022-08-13
9月仍可能加息75，樂觀情緒主導了現在的上漲行情。
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CSNeo
·2022-08-13
[微笑]
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嘞撸虎7
·2022-08-13
閱
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霸道虎杨
·2022-08-13
到底要動不動起來呢[財迷] [財迷]
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  🍏
  2022-08-13
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hangyuliang
·2022-08-12
[微笑]
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Linda2240
·2022-08-12
[微笑]
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yuliang559
·2022-08-12
[微笑]
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Mingzu
·2022-08-12
[微笑]
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liuxiangwei
·2022-08-12
[微笑]
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liuxiangwei
·2022-08-12
[微笑]
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较前值9.1%显著回落；环比上涨0%，增速较前值的1.2%大幅回落。7月PPI环比下降0.5%，为2020年4月以来首次。密歇根报告还显示，虽然消费者的乐观情绪有所改善，但购买条件并未改善，通胀继续削弱人们的购物情绪，大多数主要购买项目（房屋、汽车、大型耐用品）的购买条件仍处于或接近历史低点。8月，各类收入群体的预期指数都有所改善，尤其是在中低收入消费者中，通胀对他们尤为重要。高收入消费者目前的个人财务状况以及耐用品的购买条件，都出现了大幅下滑。虽然消费者对个人财务状况的看法与上个月基本没有变化，但当被问及明年的收入情况时，预期涨幅的中位数为2.1%，高于过去两个月的1.1%。”消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9999173043,"gmtCreate":1660515238483,"gmtModify":1676533480826,"author":{"id":"3581753589389427","authorId":"3581753589389427","name":"Kokkeng1119","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","listText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","text":"[驚訝]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999173043","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9999098835,"gmtCreate":1660438244128,"gmtModify":1676533469295,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999098835","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9990261453,"gmtCreate":1660357261875,"gmtModify":1676533457993,"author":{"id":"4111640372193142","authorId":"4111640372193142","name":"Paggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34e78ada667e7b63c0632c8f2d0fc95f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990261453","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9990662781,"gmtCreate":1660350557945,"gmtModify":1676533455093,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990662781","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9990681371,"gmtCreate":1660349737495,"gmtModify":1676533454717,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990681371","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9990691283,"gmtCreate":1660347639444,"gmtModify":1676533453599,"author":{"id":"3567334721242358","authorId":"3567334721242358","name":"MyKhoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f130b587a20deffeafc3a3dd2f3d5b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990691283","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9990602996,"gmtCreate":1660347064617,"gmtModify":1676533453402,"author":{"id":"3568809434693461","authorId":"3568809434693461","name":"Nicole_L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6693db75e35e38dd7e6c673738552b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Noted&nbsp;","listText":"Noted&nbsp;","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990602996","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":684252071,"gmtCreate":1660345632995,"gmtModify":1676536731675,"author":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23:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135492485","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。</blockquote><p>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。</p><p>周五公布的数据显示，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值55.1，预期52.5，前值51.5。分项指数方面，现况指数初值55.5，不及预期的57.8，也低于前值58.1；预期指数初值54.9，高于预期的48.5，前值仅为47.3。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976a24b35ad1cb3735eb3859c6c02972\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，8月1年通胀预期初值5%，预期5.1%，前值5.2%。今年稍早，该短期通胀预期一度达到5.4%，创下1981年以来的最高水平。<b>5-10年期通胀预期初值中位数为3%，高于市场预期的2.8%，较前值2.9%也有增加；预期平均值的攀升则更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，并回到历史最高水平。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db792bcec05cb5568026e845f641e927\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>过去约一年的时间里，密歇根5年通胀预期中位数处在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间，而6月初值一度打破该区间，达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，令市场颇为关注，认为是长期通胀预期松动的表现，不过此后在美联储暴力加息的推动下，5年期通胀预期回落，甚至一度跌破2.9%-3.1%的区间，令通胀预期可能失控的担忧大幅缓解。但最新数据显示，长期通胀预期又有上行迹象。</p><p>对于上述通胀预期，<b>分析指出，这不是一份能够安慰美联储的报告，虽然它不会让9月FOMC会议更偏向75个基点加息，但它确实表明，宣布战胜通胀显然为时过早。</b></p><p>密歇根消费者信心的通胀预期，与本周稍早美联储调查显示的不一致。纽约联储调查显示，7月消费者对未来一年的通胀增速预期从6月的6.78%降至6.22%，为今年2月以来的最低点，也是有史以来通胀预期下降最快的一个月。从中期来看，消费者对三年后的通胀率的预期降至3.18%，创下2021年4月以来的最低值。</p><p>本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据，均好于市场预期且明显回落，或表明通胀拐点已至。7月CPI同比增8.5% 较前值9.1%显著回落；环比上涨0%，增速较前值的1.2%大幅回落。7月PPI环比下降0.5%，为2020年4月以来首次。</p><p>密歇根报告还显示，<b>虽然消费者的乐观情绪有所改善，但购买条件并未改善，通胀继续削弱人们的购物情绪，大多数主要购买项目（房屋、汽车、大型耐用品）的购买条件仍处于或接近历史低点。</b></p><p>8月，各类收入群体的预期指数都有所改善，尤其是在中低收入消费者中，通胀对他们尤为重要。高收入消费者目前的个人财务状况以及耐用品的购买条件，都出现了大幅下滑。虽然消费者对个人财务状况的看法与上个月基本没有变化，但当被问及明年的收入情况时，预期涨幅的中位数为2.1%，高于过去两个月的1.1%。”</p><p>消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-12 23:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。周五公布的数据显示，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1135492485","content_text":"美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。周五公布的数据显示，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值55.1，预期52.5，前值51.5。分项指数方面，现况指数初值55.5，不及预期的57.8，也低于前值58.1；预期指数初值54.9，高于预期的48.5，前值仅为47.3。市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，8月1年通胀预期初值5%，预期5.1%，前值5.2%。今年稍早，该短期通胀预期一度达到5.4%，创下1981年以来的最高水平。5-10年期通胀预期初值中位数为3%，高于市场预期的2.8%，较前值2.9%也有增加；预期平均值的攀升则更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，并回到历史最高水平。过去约一年的时间里，密歇根5年通胀预期中位数处在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间，而6月初值一度打破该区间，达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，令市场颇为关注，认为是长期通胀预期松动的表现，不过此后在美联储暴力加息的推动下，5年期通胀预期回落，甚至一度跌破2.9%-3.1%的区间，令通胀预期可能失控的担忧大幅缓解。但最新数据显示，长期通胀预期又有上行迹象。对于上述通胀预期，分析指出，这不是一份能够安慰美联储的报告，虽然它不会让9月FOMC会议更偏向75个基点加息，但它确实表明，宣布战胜通胀显然为时过早。密歇根消费者信心的通胀预期，与本周稍早美联储调查显示的不一致。纽约联储调查显示，7月消费者对未来一年的通胀增速预期从6月的6.78%降至6.22%，为今年2月以来的最低点，也是有史以来通胀预期下降最快的一个月。从中期来看，消费者对三年后的通胀率的预期降至3.18%，创下2021年4月以来的最低值。本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据，均好于市场预期且明显回落，或表明通胀拐点已至。7月CPI同比增8.5% 较前值9.1%显著回落；环比上涨0%，增速较前值的1.2%大幅回落。7月PPI环比下降0.5%，为2020年4月以来首次。密歇根报告还显示，虽然消费者的乐观情绪有所改善，但购买条件并未改善，通胀继续削弱人们的购物情绪，大多数主要购买项目（房屋、汽车、大型耐用品）的购买条件仍处于或接近历史低点。8月，各类收入群体的预期指数都有所改善，尤其是在中低收入消费者中，通胀对他们尤为重要。高收入消费者目前的个人财务状况以及耐用品的购买条件，都出现了大幅下滑。虽然消费者对个人财务状况的看法与上个月基本没有变化，但当被问及明年的收入情况时，预期涨幅的中位数为2.1%，高于过去两个月的1.1%。”消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9990831644,"gmtCreate":1660319691592,"gmtModify":1676533450862,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990831644","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9990833532,"gmtCreate":1660319559430,"gmtModify":1676533450843,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990833532","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9990839631,"gmtCreate":1660319321426,"gmtModify":1676533450804,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990839631","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9990830692,"gmtCreate":1660319180019,"gmtModify":1676533450773,"author":{"id":"3582688457818684","authorId":"3582688457818684","name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990830692","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9990830367,"gmtCreate":1660319169263,"gmtModify":1676533450765,"author":{"id":"3582688457818684","authorId":"3582688457818684","name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990830367","repostId":1135492485,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":162,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}