On March 14, an analysis indicated that the automotive market maintained robust growth driven by national consumption stimulus policies. The overall performance of the national automotive market in 2025 was strong, with significant recovery observed in the truck and bus segments. However, due to exceptionally strong policy support last year and a noticeable contraction in incentives this year, retail sales of passenger vehicles in February experienced negative growth. Despite this, manufacturer sales showed relatively better growth in February, supported by increased exports. The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment demonstrated strong momentum, while the automotive export market continued to strengthen. Significant fluctuations in manufacturer inventories were noted, indicating ongoing pressure within the industry.
In 2026, the commercial vehicle market exhibited structural growth driven by equipment renewal subsidies. High subsidies accelerated the electrification of logistics and transport vehicles, leading to elevated commercial vehicle market vitality. A clear divergence between passenger and commercial vehicle trends has been evident in recent years. As the real estate sector continued to decline, commercial vehicles weakened, while passenger vehicle consumption improved. Influenced by policy factors in 2026, the passenger vehicle market declined by 10%, showing relative sluggishness. In contrast, the truck segment, boosted by electrification subsidies, saw pure electric trucks perform significantly stronger than the previous year. Subsidies also spurred strong growth in the bus market, including micro-vans. The vehicle trade-in policy had a limited effect on stimulating passenger vehicle sales, particularly as its initial phase failed to yield expected results. Recent industry-wide efforts to manage internal competition have made positive progress, leading to a noticeable slowdown in the overall automotive market trend.
The automotive market cooled in 2026. Total vehicle sales in 2025 reached 34.39 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9%. In February 2026, total vehicle sales were 1.81 million units, a decrease of 15% year-on-year. Cumulative vehicle sales from January to February 2026 stood at 4.15 million units, down 9% year-on-year. The truck market performed strongly in 2026, while the passenger vehicle and bus markets were relatively weaker.
The performance of major automotive groups varied significantly. Compared to data from 2021, some automakers showed strong performance in 2022, resulting in severe divergence in industry growth rates. Pandemic-related disruptions early in 2022 placed considerable pressure on traditional automakers, particularly with the combined impact of the NEV surge. State-owned large groups experienced varied results, with GAC and Chery performing excellently; Chery demonstrated strength in both commercial and passenger vehicle sectors. Automakers in northern China, such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC, faced operational pressures.
The NEV sector drove market divergence in early 2023. The three major central state-owned enterprises showed overall differentiation, with some state-owned enterprises falling behind. NEV companies like BYD performed very well; Chery and Tesla also showed relatively strong performance during the year. Second-tier automakers experienced split results due to the transition between old and new growth drivers and ongoing losses in the NEV segment, leading to severe struggles among small and medium-sized independent brands.
The competitive landscape among automotive groups underwent comprehensive changes in 2024. BYD's new models saw price reductions and volume increases. Strong demand for passenger vehicles and contributions from overseas markets led to excellent performances by Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng, while SAIC remained in a sharp decline. Growth rates diverged between NEV leaders BYD and Tesla. The manufacturer structure within the automotive market changed dramatically, showing intense growth rate divergence. Starting in 2025, private enterprises began replacing state-owned enterprises as industry leaders, with Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall maintaining high growth levels. Achieving a strong start to the year was a key focus for all players. Despite a challenging and sluggish market, SAIC, Geely, Dongfeng, and GAC performed strongly in January-February of the current year, showing improved growth rates.
The automotive manufacturer landscape stabilized relatively in 2025, with the status of independent brands rising significantly. Manufacturer sales generally weakened month-on-month in February, as sluggish retail market conditions hampered dealer inventory replenishment. Some manufacturers, including BYD, showed lower sales trends compared to January. SAIC Passenger Vehicles and Tesla demonstrated year-on-year strength, while BYD and others still underwent significant year-on-year sales adjustments in February.
For the passenger car segment (excluding minivans), total sales in 2025 were 29.55 million units, with cumulative growth of 9%. In February 2026, passenger car sales totaled 1.52 million units, down 14% year-on-year. Cumulative passenger car sales from January to February 2026 were 3.49 million units, a decrease of 10% year-on-year. In recent years, technological innovation and the competitive strength of new NEV models have continuously grown, while the launch of new internal combustion engine models has been lackluster. The NEV segment entered an adjustment period before the 2026 Spring Festival, with low dealer confidence suppressing growth rates.
Independent passenger vehicle manufacturers took a comprehensive lead in 2026. Major automakers were generally weaker in February, with domestic brands performing exceptionally strongly and joint-venture automakers showing weaker trends. Geely Auto led, followed by BYD in second place, with Chery maintaining the third position in February; the scale of the top three players became increasingly close. Joint ventures like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen performed weakly. The lineup of major passenger vehicle manufacturers rapidly diverged, with export-oriented and NEV-focused manufacturers performing strongly; the performance split among domestic brands was particularly evident.
For new energy passenger vehicles, manufacturer sales totaled 720,000 units in February 2026, down 13% year-on-year. Cumulative NEV manufacturer sales from January to February 2026 were 1.59 million units, a decrease of 8% year-on-year. Early 2026 faced significant pressure from scrap-and-renew subsidy policies, manufacturer price resistance, and weak NEV demand before the Spring Festival, leading to considerable pressure from sluggish demand.
For traditional internal combustion engine passenger vehicles, sales in 2023 were 16.66 million units, largely flat compared to 2022. Sales in 2024 were 14.95 million units, down 10% year-on-year. Sales in 2025 were 14.22 million units, a decrease of 5%. Sales from January to February 2026 were 1.9 million units, down 12%, indicating continued weak market performance.
In the bus segment, cumulative manufacturer sales for the full year 2023 were 750,000 units, with cumulative growth of 3%. Cumulative sales in 2024 were 800,000 units, up 6%. Cumulative sales in 2025 were 920,000 units, with growth of 15%. Cumulative bus sales from January to February 2026 were 100,000 units, down 19% year-on-year, with limited拉动 effect from exports and new energy logistics vehicles. Following a year-end surge in 2025, the bus market trend relatively retreated in 2026. Leading manufacturers like SAIC-GM-Wuling maintained strong sales in recent months, primarily driven by demand fluctuations in the logistics light van and micro-van segments. In 2026, Jiangling Motors and SAIC Maxus performed well in commercial vehicles, while Dongfeng experienced a significant month-on-month decline in February.
In the truck segment, cumulative sales for the full year 2023 were 3.54 million units, with growth of 19%. Cumulative sales in 2024 were 3.35 million units, down 3%. Cumulative sales in 2025 were 3.72 million units, up 11%. Truck sales from January to February 2026 were 560,000 units, an increase of 6% year-on-year, indicating a very strong start to the year. Divergence among major truck manufacturers was evident in 2026, with leading truck makers performing strongly. Manufacturers like Wuling and Jiangling saw explosive growth compared to February of the previous year. Light trucks from Wuling, Sinotruk, Dongfeng, JAC, and Jiangling showed good year-on-year performance in February 2026. The heavy-duty truck segment experienced a surge, with pure electric heavy-duty trucks performing very strongly. FAW, Shaanxi Auto, and Sinotruk showed robust growth, contributing to a relatively stable industry structure.
