During a recent visit to a joint-stock bank branch in Beijing, several clients were observed consulting about products in the wealth management area. A financial manager at the bank mentioned that nearly every day recently, clients have been transferring funds from maturing time deposits to purchase wealth management products. "When deposits mature and clients see the unattractive fixed deposit rates, many proactively ask if there are other products to recommend," the manager stated.
According to calculations by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the scale of maturing household time deposits in 2026 is estimated to be approximately 75 trillion yuan. Compared to the 3-year time deposit rates that often exceeded 3% three years ago, the rates for similar products at major state-owned banks have now dropped to 1.55%, and it is difficult for small and medium-sized banks to exceed 2%. This significant yield gap is driving depositors to turn their attention to the wealth management market.
Multiple banking professionals indicated that the number of clients inquiring about wealth management products has noticeably increased recently, with the majority opting for medium-to-low risk products rated R2 or below.
"The yield gap is undoubtedly the core factor driving deposit migration," said Yang Haiping, a special researcher for the Beijing Wealth Management Industry Association. He believes that the deposits currently maturing in large volumes were mostly made when interest rates were at their peak. The substantially reduced returns upon renewal are forcing depositors to actively seek alternative products.
The decline in deposit interest rates is significant, prompting funds to seek new outlets. "The current 3-year fixed deposit rate at our bank is 1.75%, whereas two years ago it could reach 2.75%, and three years ago it was even over 3%," Xiao Lin, an employee at a joint-stock bank, remarked frankly. "Just think, a client who deposited money at a high rate three years ago now faces a renewal rate of only 1.75%. Can they accept that?"
Another bank client manager expressed a similar sense of disparity. "I just assisted a client who made a 3-year fixed deposit at our bank in the first half of 2023, when the rate was 3.25%, with certificate of deposit rates even higher. But now, whether for fixed deposits or certificates of deposit, rates have fallen into the '1% range'."
On social media, many depositors are sharing their deposit slips, expressing anxiety about shrinking returns. One depositor noted that in previous years, small and medium-sized banks, striving for a strong start to the year, offered rates above 4% everywhere. However, during this year's start-of-year promotion period, some smaller banks' fixed deposit rates were "even lower than those of the large banks."
A check of multiple banking apps revealed that the 3-year fixed deposit rates at major state-owned banks generally do not exceed 1.55%. For example, the Bank of China app shows a 3-year fixed deposit rate of just 1.25%, with the rate for a similar-term certificate of deposit at 1.55%. While rates at small and medium-sized banks are slightly higher, 3-year fixed deposits still struggle to exceed 2%, with only some city commercial banks and joint-stock banks offering rates around 1.9%.
Yang Haiping analyzed that the yield gap is the core factor behind deposit migration. He mentioned that the deposits maturing now were largely made during the previous high-interest-rate period. The significant reduction in renewal returns is compelling depositors to proactively look for substitute products.
Furthermore, targeted innovations by wealth management companies and optimistic sentiment in the equity market are also factors contributing to deposit migration. Among these, wealth management companies have conducted targeted innovations and marketing activities to effectively capture the migrating deposit funds, significantly influencing the flow of capital.
According to CICC's calculations, the scale of maturing household time deposits in 2026 is about 75 trillion yuan, of which approximately 67 trillion yuan are deposits with maturities of one year or longer. It is estimated that the maturing volume of all household time deposits and those with maturities over one year in 2026 will increase by 12% and 17% respectively compared to 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan.
So, where will these maturing funds flow? Low-risk products remain the mainstream choice. "What products we recommend to clients isn't entirely up to us," Xiao Lin explained. "Clients wanting to purchase wealth management products must first complete a risk assessment. In practice, most clients' assessment results are below R3." This implies that the majority of depositors can only opt for medium-to-low risk wealth management products rated R2 or below.
Multiple banking professionals provided similar feedback. "Taking the clients I handle as an example, their risk preferences are actually quite stable. Many cannot accept the possibility of principal loss, so even if they don't renew time deposits or certificates of deposit, they will only shift towards low-risk wealth management or insurance products."
An insider from the insurance industry also reported not observing a significant increase in related business volume recently.
In random interviews with several depositors, some stated they are considering wealth management products but still have concerns about the "non-principal guaranteed" nature and the expected return ranges. Others admitted frankly that they are willing to consider wealth management products as an additional investment option, "as long as the returns can outperform fixed deposits."
Yang Haiping believes that households' risk preferences are unlikely to change significantly in the short term, as this is determined by the income levels, risk tolerance, and financial product investment experience of the majority. "Therefore, the funds from deposit migration are primarily flowing into low-risk products."
It was noted that several bank-affiliated wealth management companies are recently promoting "fixed-income plus" type products to counter the pressure of declining returns in the low-interest-rate environment, with R2 medium-to-low risk products remaining mainstream. For instance, China Merchants Bank's wealth management unit recently launched a product named "Microwave Fixed-Income Plus," positioned as R2 medium-to-low risk, claiming to "strive to build a 'safety cushion' with low-volatility assets," attempting to moderately enhance returns while controlling risk.
Industry insiders believe that, in terms of wealth management products, it is still these medium-to-low risk products rated R2 and below that can truly capture the maturing deposit funds on a large scale.
CICC stated in a research report that, due to the stability of household risk preferences and the existence of liquidity management needs, the vast majority of deposits remain within the banking system. Data shows that the bank deposit retention rate has generally been above 90% in past years. In some years, such as 2024, due to the migration of deposits to wealth management products and bond funds, the deposit retention rate dropped to around 93%, while in 2025, this ratio rebounded to approximately 96%.
"The current market narrative about deposit migration does not imply a substantive change in household risk preference, but rather represents marginal adjustments in asset allocation within the low-interest-rate environment," CICC expressed. They added that an increase in household risk appetite and the release of excess savings still depend on further improvements in the macroeconomic and liquidity environment.
