To The Moon

According to Woofun AI, legendary macro investor Paul Tudor Jones has issued a bearish outlook for the US stock market in 2027, primarily attributing it to a surge in new listings from artificial intelligence companies.

He believes that as a large number of new shares flood the market, investors' views on risk assets including Bitcoin may undergo a fundamental shift, and this structural change is reshaping the underlying logic of the market.

The deeper reason lies in the reversal of market support mechanisms. During a four-year bull market, buybacks and mergers and acquisitions effectively compressed stock supply, but this force is now fading.

On the contrary, potential initial public offerings or secondary offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI, SpaceX's (SPCX.US) recent financing transactions, and share sales to build artificial intelligence infrastructure will significantly boost supply.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that this supply shock is similar to the late 1990s and early 2000s, when a large number of initial public offerings and the expiration of stock lock-up periods created favorable conditions for short sellers.

Facing the most negative environment since 2002, Jones said on CNBC that given the limited investment value, he plans to maintain short positions throughout the year. Although he believes the artificial intelligence-driven rally could last another year or two, he remains cautious about current stock price levels.

In contrast, Bitcoin's fixed supply of only 21 million coins stands in sharp contrast to the expected excess of new shares.

Jones pointed out that gold supply increases every year, while Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset, holds the greatest value in terms of scarcity, and his long-term oil position also confirms his strategy of seeking return channels outside of stocks.

However, the risk lies in Bitcoin's consistently high correlation with risk assets. Once a large-scale sell-off occurs in the market, Bitcoin's price may also fall accordingly.

Its ultimate trajectory is full of uncertainty, largely depending on the specific reactions of institutional and retail investors to a stock market decline, which will be the key variable determining whether it can truly serve as a hedge.