用VC的长线思维买基金

兴证全球基金2021-06-27

提起风险投资（VC），人们会想到这些传奇故事：“孙正义6分钟就决定投资阿里巴巴，狂赚2500多倍；彼得·蒂尔给Facebook投了50万美元，8年后变成约11亿美元；阿瑟·洛克给苹果投了约6万美元，3年后上涨为约1400万美元……” 有趣的是，VC往往会被认为是“一夜暴富”，实际上行业头部效应非常明显，也必须拥有投资的珍贵品质——耐心；在外人看来，VC所在的一级市场缺少流动性，但这在VC眼中或许...

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WealthArt
·2021-06-28
嗯哼
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朋友别哭1
·2021-06-27
價值投資！
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妙鹰
·2021-06-27
閱
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Miaw
·2021-06-27
What's VC stand for
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随喜叹赞
·2021-06-27
風吹幡動非風動非幡動實乃心動好說得好！！
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Sinlin
·2021-06-27
VC的投資標的在VC前面是透明的可控的；普通投資者的投資標的在普通投資者前面是不透明和不可控的。
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吖鵹鴣鴣
·2021-06-27
靠譜嗎
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王世全
·2021-06-27
不錯，分析得很有道理，學到東西了，謝謝老師的精彩分享！
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Takiho
·2021-06-27
Got to have a good long vision
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我能行
·2021-06-27
學習中得到了需要知道的信息，點贊
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风雪腊梅
·2021-06-27
[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
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Frankxin
·2021-06-27
散戶買指數基金，有點像VC的意思
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3
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GSL123
·2021-06-27
風投風險也大，一旦投資的創業公司失敗，血本無歸。
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Youn7276
·2021-06-27
好！
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12
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- Rache13:
  Good
  2021-06-27
  Reply
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- TMENG88:
  Thanks for sharing ?
  2021-06-27
  Reply
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Gavinli7
·2021-06-27
這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看
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loon0406
·2021-06-27
?
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TIDARAT
·2021-06-27
Aiyo
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和我一起成长
·2021-06-27
VC思維適合我們短線投資者嗎？？？
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- 金虎妞:
  进场时适合，退出时不适合.
  2021-06-27
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勤王
·2021-06-27
欲速則不達
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Tanks80
·2021-06-27
[微笑]
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Aa7C5BUD2hkPnnnL83ZmdA><strong>兴证全球基金</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>提起风险投资（VC），人们会想到这些传奇故事：“孙正义6分钟就决定投资阿里巴巴，狂赚2500多倍；彼得·蒂尔给Facebook投了50万美元，8年后变成约11亿美元；阿瑟·洛克给苹果投了约6万美元，3年后上涨为约1400万美元……”\n\n有趣的是，VC往往会被认为是“一夜暴富”，实际上行业头部效应非常明显，也必须拥有投资的珍贵品质——耐心；在外人看来，VC所在的一级市场缺少流动性，但这在VC眼中或许...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Aa7C5BUD2hkPnnnL83ZmdA\">Source 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thinking","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f711e3355e63761a00101a42f720d232","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"提起风险投资（VC），人们会想到这些传奇故事：“孙正义6分钟就决定投资阿里巴巴，狂赚2500多倍；彼得·蒂尔给Facebook投了50万美元，8年后变成约11亿美元；阿瑟·洛克给苹果投了约6万美元，3年后上涨为约1400万美元……”\n\n有趣的是，VC往往会被认为是“一夜暴富”，实际上行业头部效应非常明显，也必须拥有投资的珍贵品质——耐心；在外人看来，VC所在的一级市场缺少流动性，但这在VC眼中或许反而是优势。\n风险投资人黄海指出：风险投资体现了“买入是逻辑，卖出是艺术”，普通人也能借鉴VC的思维做投资。此话怎讲？\n从VC视角，看风险与收益\n风险投资也叫创业投资，有“高风险、高回报”的特点，毕竟大多数创业企业可能都会失败，极少数成功案例可以为失败案例买单。统计显示，美国VC行业整体年化收益约为16.4%，不过VC的头部效应、品牌效应非常明显。（美国风险投资协会数据，1987-2007区间年化收益率）\nVC是如何“悄悄变富，惊艳世人”的？风险投资家并非不惧风险的勇士，优秀的VC会通过惊人的耐心、准确的判断斩获更高胜率。红杉资本是全球最著名的VC之一，在美国投资了苹果、思科、谷歌、领英、WhatsApp等公司，据统计其平均持股时间达7年。\n图：红杉等基金的历史回报\n\n数据来源：《风投》，哈佛大学教授汤姆·尼古拉斯著。圆圈大小与规模大小成正比。\n为什么VC这么有耐心？答案很简单：不得不如此。参与一级市场的VC，往往不能随时退出，VC出资人也需要“被迫”长期持有。与一级市场相比，二级市场流动性更好，你能获得每天，甚至实时报价，但反过来看，“这是否也是二级市场的缺点呢？”\n正所谓“心急吃不了热豆腐”，VC一定深有体会。一方面，由于一级市场缺乏流动性，每次交易可能需要等很多年。另一方面，早期阶段的公司，不存在实时报价，估值变化也可能非常剧烈。VC能抵挡“赚快钱”的诱惑，恰恰是因为缺少这个途径。\n“募、投、管、退”四个步骤是VC的职责，其中最重要的环节就是“退”。判断是退出还是继续加码，是非常考验VC能力的事情。比如张一鸣的“九九房”创业失败了，但“一个华丽转身”打造出今日头条，所以重要的还是回归对商业与经营者的复杂判断。\n\n时有风吹幡动，非风动，非幡动，实乃心动——虽然二级市场提供了频繁交易的可能，但VC恐怕不喜欢这种交易便利与频繁报价带来的撩拨与试探。像VC一样谨慎思考，给自己的投资加一个“紧箍咒”，降低操作频率，在克制内心波澜的同时或许会有不一样的收获。\n“神秘”的VC出资人\n有耐心的资金永远是少数，加之VC募资规模可能高达数千万或数亿元，所以更像是“奢侈品”。它们的出资人来自哪里？\n风险投资可以算是美国的发明。20世纪80年代末，美国VC资金主要来源发生变化，从富有的个人和家庭明显转向退休金、社保基金、大学捐赠基金等机构投资者。我国则主要是上市公司、高净值个人、政府引导基金等。VC资金往往对于流动性要求更低，耐心更高。\n耶鲁大学捐赠基金前首席投资官大卫·史文森曾表示：某家风投机构是他们最赚钱的投资项目之一，为耶鲁带来的回报超过24亿美元。此外，风险投资人杜枫在著作中说：“退休基金是劳动者年轻的时候存下来，以保证退休和年老时的收益，是一种比较长期的投资，要得到超过通货膨胀的收益，就不能只限于固定存款。”美国退休基金为了分散风险，会以一小部分资金投资于VC，同时也争取拉高整体收益。\nVC思维下，如何投资？\nVC的投资思路，体现了价值投资的眼光。部分二级市场上市公司与创投公司类似，在不断涌现新的业务，进行商业创新、技术创新。此类公司的投资分析思路，往往也是看护城河、看用户、看粘性，同样需要在公司业务重大拐点发生之前及时发现，判断公司是否具有跨越式发展的潜力。\n此外，VC更看重的往往是10年左右的中长线行业分析思维，这也是建立在与公司内部管理层的深入了解沟通与合作的基础之上。二级市场普通投资者往往难以把握，时常会面临的恐慌情绪，部分源于对公司情况缺乏足够深入的分析与研究。举例来说，美股亚马逊股价曾经在2001年10月跌至5.51美元，自上市以来最大回撤居然达到95%，二级市场投资很难不为所动，理想化的价值投资思维往往面临各方面的考验与压力。\n图：1997至2021亚马逊股价（AMZN）\n\nVC与公募基金相比有很多不同，比如高杠杆运作、借壳上市等风险相对更大，但投资需要“正确的认知+逆人性”，不论风险投资或二级市场都是如此。“股神”巴菲特对于市场好时候、坏时候都保持淡定态度，也是源于其资金主要来自保险浮存金，能支持进行长期持有。对于普通投资者，一旦明确资金短期内无需动用，既然一样是用于长线，不妨将耐心思维、VC思维用在投资中。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":127934395,"gmtCreate":1624812115517,"gmtModify":1703845469391,"author":{"id":"3497004584020469","authorId":"3497004584020469","name":"WealthArt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fd5b4e32131667c5f91d7c8a66acfc3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3497004584020469","authorIdStr":"3497004584020469"},"htmlText":"嗯哼","listText":"嗯哼","text":"嗯哼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127934395","repostId":1137416078,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":127081532,"gmtCreate":1624803357826,"gmtModify":1703845355378,"author":{"id":"3584008582063940","authorId":"3584008582063940","name":"朋友别哭1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8947e2d828f284a719240ff6e3248bbd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584008582063940","authorIdStr":"3584008582063940"},"htmlText":"價值投資！","listText":"價值投資！","text":"價值投資！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127081532","repostId":1137416078,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":124740227,"gmtCreate":1624797068169,"gmtModify":1703845266837,"author":{"id":"3525656859508709","authorId":"3525656859508709","name":"妙鹰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3825ec897931f23c63b01d018d2408e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3525656859508709","authorIdStr":"3525656859508709"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124740227","repostId":1137416078,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":124797327,"gmtCreate":1624789748069,"gmtModify":1703845180536,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"htmlText":"What's VC stand for","listText":"What's VC stand for","text":"What's VC stand for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124797327","repostId":1137416078,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":124458923,"gmtCreate":1624784292962,"gmtModify":1703845115151,"author":{"id":"3581683483246560","authorId":"3581683483246560","name":"随喜叹赞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e20c3338d6862e0ac4f2a313635fea34","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3581683483246560","authorIdStr":"3581683483246560"},"htmlText":"風吹幡動 非風動 非幡動&nbsp; 實乃心動&nbsp; 好&nbsp;說得好！！","listText":"風吹幡動 非風動 非幡動&nbsp; 實乃心動&nbsp; 好&nbsp;說得好！！","text":"風吹幡動 非風動 非幡動 實乃心動 好 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[微笑] 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