Alibaba: One Of The Really Cheap Bargains In This Market

seekingalpha2021-06-01

Summary Alibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services. The company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the ...

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PhilipGoh
·2021-06-23
Good investment
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sk5735
·2021-06-21
It’s a bargain!
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Teeteedubs
·2021-06-20
Yupp definitely
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- BlackTechAI:
  Pls Follow, Like & Comment thanks ?
  2021-07-14
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LimHianYew
·2021-06-19
[LOL]
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DragonLee
·2021-06-19
Waiting for good news soon....
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Terriber
·2021-06-18
[Grin]
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patricklowck
·2021-06-16
will buy at 200
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RonaldSTH
·2021-06-16
DUMP this DUMB stock.
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RonaldSTH
·2021-06-16
A waste of time to wait for this dumb stock to go up. Your $$ could have made you tons putting it in other growth stock. DUMP this DUMB stock.
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MistaVista
·2021-06-13
good
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tks
·2021-06-12
K
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377tkr
·2021-06-10
Risk reward good?
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K74
·2021-06-10
Yeah
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yvneyng
·2021-06-09
Nice
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J355
·2021-06-08
Then what are we waiting for? Buy buy buy
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Sam51
·2021-06-08
Pls like and comment tq
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- miaomee:
  Sure Like and comment pls
  2021-06-09
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Cyn198
·2021-06-08
Time to invest! Please like and comment ??
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- Cyn198Replying tomiaomee:
  [Happy]
  2021-06-12
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- miaomeeReplying toCyn198:
  [开心]
  2021-06-12
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- Cyn198:
  ThanK you :)
  2021-06-10
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AppleMango
·2021-06-08
Time to buy. Pls like n comments
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- miaomee:
  Sure Like and comment
  2021-06-09
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Yuanecute
·2021-06-08
still ex to buy. like n comment pls
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- jazzzy:
  ok
  2021-06-12
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Daleo
·2021-06-08
Buy some. Like and comment. Will reply back.
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- Daleo:
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  2021-06-08
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And while I am covering also companies from Germany, France, Great Britain, Sweden or Denmark, I have avoided one country almost completely although it has many interesting investment opportunities: Mainland China.The only company I covered so far is Tencent Holdings Limited (OTCPK:TCEHY).\nAnd although China has hundreds or thousands of successful companies, most of them are almost unknown in the Western Hemisphere (especially when moving outside of the investing world). And while most investors are familiar with Tencent, there is at least one other company almost every investor has heard of: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA). In the following article, I will analyze Alibaba in my usual way. I will try to determine if Alibaba is a solid business with a wide economic moat and try to answer the question if Alibaba is a solid investment right now.\nBusiness Description\nAlibaba Group was founded in 1999 by 18 individuals. Nevertheless, one of these 18 stands out – the former English teacher from Hangzhou, Jack Ma. Over the years, Alibaba evolved in a multinational technology company and with a market capitalization of $570 billion, Alibaba is on the 10thspot on the list of most valuable companies in the world (by market cap). And behind Tencent, which is on the 7thspot on that list, Alibaba is the second most valuable company in China.\nWhile Alibaba is mostly focused on e-commerce and retail operations, the Alibaba Group is actually a holding company with many different sales services. This includes C2C services, B2C services and B2B services. Aside from retail, the Alibaba Group also offers electronic payment services, shipping search engines and could computing services. The group owns and operates a diverse portfolio of companies around the world in numerous business sectors.\n(Source:Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)\nAlibaba is reporting in four different segments:\n\nCore Commerce Revenue: This segment is comprised of platforms operating in retail and wholesale commerce in China as well as logistics services and local consumer services. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 621.1 billion in revenue and RMB 159 billion in income from operations.\nCloud Computing Revenue: This segment is comprised of Alibaba Cloud, which offers different cloud services to customers worldwide like database, storage, big data analytics, a machine learning platform and large-scale computing security. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 60.1 billion, but the segment was not profitable so far (a loss of RMB 9 billion).\nDigital Media and Entertainment Revenue: This segment uses the deep data insights to serve the broader interests of consumers through key distribution platforms Youku and Alibaba Pictures as well as other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, literature and music. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 31.2 billion, but was also not profitable.\nInnovation Initiatives and Others Revenue: This segment includes businesses like Amap, DingTalk, Tmall Genie and others. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 4.8 billion in revenue, but also an operating loss.\n\n(Source: Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)\nWhen looking at the last annual results (fiscal 2021), Alibaba generated RMB 717.3 billion in revenue. Compared to fiscal 2020 (RMB 509.7 billion) this is reflecting an increase of 41%. Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2021 was RMB 196.8 billion – an increase of 25% compared to fiscal 2020 (adjusted EBITA of RMB 157.7 billion). Diluted earnings per share actually decreased from RMB 6.99 in fiscal 2020 to RMB 6.84 in fiscal 2021 – reflecting a decrease of 2.1%. But we should not pay too much attention to the earnings per share. Instead, it makes much more sense to look at the free cash flow Alibaba is generating. In fiscal 2021, Alibaba generated RMB 172.7 billion in free cash flow compared to RMB 130.9 billion in free cash flow one year earlier.\nStrong Business Among Strong Competitors\nWhat is striking when looking at Alibaba – and what has been discussed several times – is the low multiple for which Alibaba is currently trading. When using the trailing twelve-month GAAP numbers, Alibaba is trading for 25 times earnings, when using the non-GAAP forward numbers, it is trading for a P/E ratio of 20.\nWe can compare Alibaba to its peers – companies like Amazon (AMZN), Tencent, Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) or Alphabet (GOOG). And Alibaba actually belongs in that list as it is not only operating in similar business segments, but it is also growing with similarly high rates. And Alibaba is not only growing with a similar pace; it is actually outperforming most of its peers.\n(Source:Alibaba 2020 Investor Presentations)\nWhile Alibaba is growing with a similar pace like these companies, it is trading for a completely different multiple. Right now, Alibaba is trading for a price-cash-flow ratio of 17, while competitors like Tencent, Facebook or Microsoft are trading for a P/FCF ratio between 35 and 40. It is striking, that the market is assigning these competitors a multiple twice as high and Amazon is actually trading for a multiple more than 4 times higher (price-free-cash-flow ratio of 76).\nData by YCharts\nRight now, readers might point out, that the comparison to Amazon is misleading as Amazon is still spending a lot of money to achieve future growth and therefore has a lower profit than other companies. And it certainly is true, that Amazon is still focusing on top line growth – sometimes at the expense of bottom-line growth – but so does Alibaba.\nWhile Amazon spent 10.4% of its revenue as capital expenditures in the last fiscal year, Alibaba spent almost the same amount – 8.9% of revenue. And when looking at the expenses for research and development, we once again see similar numbers. In the last five years, Amazon spent 12.16% of revenue on R&D on average while Alibaba spent 10.38% of its revenue on R&D.\nBut while these numbers are quite similar for both companies – Amazon is spending a bit more on R&D than Alibaba – the free cash flow these two companies can generate is completely different. While Amazon only generated 6.7% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year, Alibaba generated 26.5% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year – almost four times higher.\nAnd Alibaba is not only extremely profitable – it was growing with an extremely high pace in the past. During the past ten years, Alibaba could not only grow revenue every single year, it also grew revenue with a CAGR of 62.6%. Earnings per share fluctuated a little bit during these ten years but grew with an even higher pace – a CAGR of 76.29% during the last decade. And finally, free cash flow increased with a CAGR of 59.62% during the last decade.\n(Source: Author’s work based on numbers from Morningstar)\nWhen looking at Alibaba’s growth rates in the last few years compared to its competitors, Alibaba is also outperforming. When looking at the revenue CAGR of the last 5 years, we get the following numbers:\n\nAmazon: 29.26%\nFacebook: 36.82%\nTencent: 36.20%\nAlphabet: 19.47%\nMicrosoft: 8.85%\nAlibaba: 46.24%\n\nWe can spin it how we want: Alibaba is an extremely profitable company growing with extremely high rates but is trading at an extremely low multiple compared to its competitors. It is growing with a higher pace than Microsoft and Facebook, but trading for half the multiple. It is much more profitable than Amazon and also growing at a higher pace, but trading for a quarter of the valuation multiple. At this point, profitability and growth of Alibaba on the one side and the valuation multiple on the other side does not add up. And we have to ask the question, why Alibaba is trading for such a low multiple although it is outperforming many of its peers that trade for much higher multiples.\nRisks\nWhen looking at the past performance of Alibaba, we can see, that steep selloffs are quite common as a similar sell-off happened already three times since the IPO in 2014 with the steepest sell-off being more than 50% off the previous high.\nData byYCharts\nWhile this might help us a bit, we are still facing high levels of uncertainty and investors usually don’t like uncertainty. Basically, this uncertainty can be summed up in one short sentence: The tense relationship between Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma and the Chinese government is worrying for investors. And this tense relationship is exemplified by several events. It started last year, when the IPO of the company’s fintech affiliate Ant Financial was cancelled. \nThis was followed by theinitiation of an antitrust investigation, in which it is investigated if Alibaba had engaged in monopolistic practices (like preventing vendors from selling on other platforms). Additionally, new supervision for Ant Group was also discussed. And finally, at the end of 2020, Jack Ma went missing and it took about three months before the public would hear from him again – another worrying aspect for investors.\nAs long as we are talking about risks, there are other aspect I like to mention. I compared Alibaba to Amazon above – and I still think that comparison is appropriate. But we also have to acknowledge, that Alibaba growth potential is limited as the company is mostly focused on China and might have more difficulties to expand globally – compared to Amazon. But considering the growing middle class in China and the high pace with which the economy is still growing we should not worry too much about Alibaba’s growth potential.\nThere is a final risk Imentioned in my last article about Tencentand that risk is also applying to Alibaba:\n\n And a final risk is the fact that Tencent is a Chinese company. It is especially difficult to understand different trends before they are happening and predict the future, but while I am familiar with the German culture and the people (habits, preferences, etc.) and can deal with similar countries like France, the United Kingdom, Sweden or the United States, it is rather difficult for me to understand and analyze the consumer behavior and preferences of the Chinese population. This makes it difficult to assess the potential and development of the products and services Tencent offers.\n\nBut despite all these issues, there is a comparison I like very much. Very recently,one of my fellow contributorscompared Alibaba’s situation right now to Facebook a few years ago, when it was facing the Cambridge Analytics scandal and also trading for extremely low multiples due to the uncertainties. And it is also interesting, that Wall Street analysts as well as Seeking Alpha contributors are extremely bullish about Alibaba right now.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nBalance Sheet\nWhen facing challenges, it is especially reassuring if we are dealing with a solid balance sheet enabling the company to withstand challenges and stormy market conditions. And similar to many companies mentioned above – like Facebook or Alphabet – Alibaba also has a great balance sheet. We don’t have to worry about high debt levels although Alibaba has current bank borrowings of RMB 3.6 billion and non-current bank borrowings of RMB 38.3 billion on its balance sheet. But compared to a total equity of RMB 1,075 billion, we get a D/E ratio of 0.04, which is negligible. Aside from the debt, the biggest problem is probably the company’s goodwill. On March 31, 2021, Alibaba had RMB 292.8 billion in goodwill. This means, that 17.3% of total assets (RMB 1,690 billion) is goodwill.\n(Source:Alibaba Q4/21 Earnings Release)\nBut aside from goodwill, Alibaba also has RMB 321.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents as well as RMB 152.4 billion in short-term investments on its balance sheet. Aside from these rather liquid assets, Alibaba also has RMB 237.2 billion in equity securities and other investments, that are also worth mentioning. I included a screenshot of the latest balance sheet, which is also including the numbers in US$. Especially $72 billion in very liquid assets give Alibaba a lot of “financial power” and the ability to negative troubles.\nIntrinsic Value Calculation\nI already mentioned above that Alibaba is trading at rather low multiples – at least when compared to its peers and especially for a company growing with a high pace. And compared to the company’s history, the stock is right now trading almost for its lowest P/FCF ratio since the IPO. A few times – in 2016, 2018 and 2020 – the stock was trading at a similar low P/FCF ratio. From that point of view, Alibaba has to be considered extremely cheap.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha Charting)\nWhen you are familiar with my past articles, you know that I don’t just use valuation multiples but also a discount cash flow analysis, which is considered to be much more precise (although we have to make a lot more assumptions). When taking the free cash flow of fiscal 2021 (RMB 172.7 billion) as basis, Alibaba has to grow about 5.5% annually from now till perpetuity for the stock to be fairly valued (the intrinsic value is RMB 1,367; discount rate 10%).\nInstead, we can also calculate with more realistic growth rates. If we assume, that Alibaba won’t go under, we have to assume at least 20% growth for the next year. Let’s be rather pessimistic and assume, that growth will slowly decline over the next decade and in 10 years from now, the growth rate will only be 6% till perpetuity. When using these numbers, we get an intrinsic value of RMB 2,596. And we have to assume, that these growth assumptions are rather cautious for a company like Alibaba.\nConclusion\nSo far, we talked about risks, about past growth rates, compared Alibaba to its peers and provided an intrinsic value calculation. I also wanted to write about the growth potential as well as the wide economic moat, that Alibaba has without any doubt – similar toAmazon,FacebookorTencent. But the article would probably be too long then. Instead, I included links to three articles in which I described the economic moat of these businesses.\nWhen summing up, it is quite simple. When we assume, that Alibaba is in serious trouble and might be brought down in some way or is facing troubles, that will seriously mess with the company’s ability to grow, we should not invest in Alibaba. These risks are present, and we actually don’t know what could happen in the coming quarters (or years). However, I consider it extremely unlikely, that China will destroy its second most-valuable company. If we assume on the other side, that this is just a small hick-up and troubles Alibaba can work through in the coming quarters and Alibaba will continue to perform in a similar way as in the past (even with growth rates slowing down), Alibaba is probably one of the most undervalued stocks out there and an extreme bargain.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":123394525,"gmtCreate":1624408444167,"gmtModify":1703835686242,"author":{"id":"3574730309796268","authorId":"3574730309796268","name":"PhilipGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6085185a57dcb9a222e871338387428","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574730309796268","authorIdStr":"3574730309796268"},"htmlText":"Good investment&nbsp;","listText":"Good investment&nbsp;","text":"Good investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123394525","repostId":1138216687,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":164528853,"gmtCreate":1624230911672,"gmtModify":1703830835077,"author":{"id":"3581741175905126","authorId":"3581741175905126","name":"sk5735","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/119fc82bddd3291f8c7e303167676732","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581741175905126","authorIdStr":"3581741175905126"},"htmlText":"It’s a bargain!","listText":"It’s a bargain!","text":"It’s a bargain!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164528853","repostId":1138216687,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":165669087,"gmtCreate":1624127791049,"gmtModify":1703829167367,"author":{"id":"3581990547546867","authorId":"3581990547546867","name":"Teeteedubs","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581990547546867","authorIdStr":"3581990547546867"},"htmlText":"Yupp definitely&nbsp;","listText":"Yupp definitely&nbsp;","text":"Yupp definitely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165669087","repostId":1138216687,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5213787,"gmtCreate":1626231914239,"gmtModify":1663230942237,"authorId":3577008494818778,"author":{"id":3577008494818778,"idStr":"3577008494818778","authorId":3577008494818778,"name":"BlackTechAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64102b43967a7880f608e7ec776385d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":165669087,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls Follow, Like &amp; 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