On the news front, international gold prices continued their strong performance during the Asian session on January 27th, driven by rising financial and geopolitical uncertainties which have fueled safe-haven demand. The direction of US policy, ongoing trade concerns, and discussions surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence have all reinforced the market's appetite for gold allocations. Concurrently, the market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the subsequent speech by its Chair. Technically, gold remains in a clear bullish trend; while short-term volatility risks exist, the overall structure continues to favor an upward trajectory. In the near term, focus will be on the Fed's stance and its impact on price fluctuations, with the medium-term outlook still pointing towards a volatile ascent.
International gold surged by nearly $400 last week, closing with a large bullish weekly candlestick. Yesterday's session saw prices rally then retreat, indicating the beginning of a short-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears. This suggests the market is entering a short-term topping phase, a period where both bullish and bearish forces can become extremely volatile, making risk management critically important. As mentioned yesterday, the rapid price surge driven by news implies a significant corrective decline is imminent, potentially even exceeding last year's single-day drop record of $300. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor key levels that could signal a reversal. The bullish momentum, having made a strong push, may now be weakening; this trend cannot pause, as any hesitation could invite a sharp bearish counterattack.
From a chart perspective, as long as gold holds above the 5000-4990 range (domestic 1122-25), the bullish bias remains intact, albeit in a short-term topping phase. A pullback that holds above support would initially suggest further upside, with key resistance levels to watch in the 5100 area and towards new highs (domestic 1150 area), followed by 5150 (domestic 1160 area) and 5200 (domestic 1172 area). The short-term 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around 5065-60 should be monitored as a key intraday强弱分界线 (strength/weakness dividing line). The overall focus should be on a potential rally-and-fade pattern. A break below the 4990-5000 range intraday would be highly significant, strongly suggesting that 5111 might represent a short-term peak. As prices climb higher, market shakeouts are likely to intensify, with routine fluctuations easily reaching $100-200 (domestic 23-45 points).
US crude oil settled with a small bearish candlestick yesterday. From a daily chart structural perspective, although it closed in negative territory, the primary trend remains biased towards strength. However, yesterday's bearish close also indicates a current lack of effective and sustained driving momentum, further validating the view that the market is likely in a consolidation phase, requiring repeated fluctuations to solidify underlying support. Given yesterday's decline, crude oil requires some adjustment to short-term trading strategies. Those who entered long positions overnight around 60.3/2, or initiated longs near 60.5, should conservatively consider exiting on any rebound towards the 60.5/6 area and adopt a wait-and-see approach. Intraday, key support to watch is the 60.2-60.0 zone; decisions on whether to establish new long positions there will depend on real-time market adjustments. More conservative traders may patiently wait for a deeper retracement towards the 20-day moving average around 59.2-4, with strategy adjustments to be made based on real-time price action then.
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