To The Moon

Financial media reports that Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. has released a research report indicating that a major upward wave for the AI industry chain still requires time to restart. The firm advises continued focus on rotational investment opportunities in non-tech sectors over the coming period. The overall market correction space is limited, and while technology stocks need more time to consolidate, this combination suggests that high-dividend assets could be the first non-tech assets to return to a mid-term strong state. The report recommends focusing on banks, non-bank financials, food and beverage, and utilities. Based on fundamental亮点, the non-tech direction should consider investment opportunities in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, industrial metals, and basic chemicals.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. outlines four key stages for the AI industry chain to regain its strength. First, a short-term oversold rebound is expected, which is significant as it will restore the effectiveness of fundamental research. However, there may be a subsequent double-bottom test. Second, even if a double bottom occurs, the government's stabilizing policies could be further strengthened, accelerating the clearing of pessimistic positions. Third, the efficiency of valuation digestion through earnings is higher than through price corrections. The third-quarter earnings season will see static valuation digestion and valuation switching, bringing valuation anchors close to historical medians. Fourth, for the AI chain to regain its momentum, a significant catalyst is ultimately needed to forge a new consensus. The report emphasizes that while a major wave of A-share market recovery is conditional on the AI industry trend regaining strength, the market reversal will not happen overnight and requires the sequential breakthrough of these key nodes. For now, the AI chain has just passed its first key node, and while a short-term rebound is underway, medium-term layout should not be rushed.

The report reaffirms the analysis of short-term capital supply and demand contradictions. The positive capital cycle seen in the second quarter of 2026 is unlikely to recover quickly. During that period, public equity funds concentrated in high-sharp products, and hybrid funds focused on low-volatility, high-return products, creating a multi-track positive cycle for tech. However, with short-term floating profits quickly turning negative, the clearing of pessimistic positions is incomplete. In an upward phase, marginal capital leads the market, but in a correction, follower capital can be a significant source of selling pressure. The report highlights that the shift in marginal capital during the adjustment phase, with asset allocation funds becoming more influential, is a fundamental reason for the relative advantage of non-tech sectors. For the market to return to an offensive stance, it must first digest the issue of floating losses and clear pessimistic positions, a process that will take time.

Given that the AI industry chain's major upward wave restart requires time, continued focus on non-tech rotational opportunities is advised. As overall market adjustment space is limited and tech consolidation is ongoing, high-dividend assets are likely to be the first non-tech assets to return to a mid-term strong state. The report highlights banks, non-bank financials, food and beverage, and utilities. For non-tech direction based on fundamental亮点, it recommends focusing on pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, industrial metals, and basic chemicals. The report concludes that while technology will likely lead the market in the next major wave, the market will naturally become more diversified, with tech itself becoming more varied and non-tech sectors with improving景气 also generating absolute returns.