SDIC Securities International released a research report stating that the 2025 solar industry conference conveyed positive signals from regulatory authorities, actively promoting high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector through an "anti-internal competition" drive. Mainstream enterprises across the photovoltaic industrial chain have gradually reached a consensus on "anti-internal competition" and are practicing strict self-discipline. This year, initial effects of the "anti-internal competition" initiative have begun to emerge. The institution believes the campaign's effectiveness will become more pronounced next year, benefiting major industry players and potentially turning losses into profits. It advises investors to accumulate positions during market dips and focus on investment opportunities within the photovoltaic industrial chain. Key viewpoints from SDIC Securities International are as follows.
On December 18, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association convened the 2025 Annual Conference of the Photovoltaic Industry in Xi'an, Shaanxi. Centered on the theme "Resolving Internal Competition Dilemmas, Promoting High-Quality and Sustainable Development," the conference gathered over a thousand participants, including representatives from regulatory bodies such as the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Commerce, alongside industry experts and enterprises from across the industrial chain. Discussions focused on development pathways for the photovoltaic industry during the critical juncture marking the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the commencement of the "15th Five-Year Plan."
Regulatory leaders emphasized in their speeches that industry governance will enter a critical攻坚期 in 2026, necessitating strengthened capacity regulation, upgrades in technical standards, and enhanced coordination across the industrial chain.
At the annual conference, Director Yang of the Electronic Information Department at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology outlined that photovoltaic industry governance will enter a攻坚期 in 2026, highlighting six key areas of focus for the department: 1) Further strengthening capacity regulation to accelerate the achievement of dynamic supply-demand balance; 2) Improving price monitoring mechanisms to curb disorderly low-price competition, while enhancing product quality supervision and spot checks; 3) Reinforcing innovation-driven development to promote high-quality growth in the photovoltaic industry; 4) Further refining the standard system, accelerating the release, revision, and enforcement of mandatory national standards; 5) Urging the industry to strengthen self-discipline and enhance consultation and consensus-building among enterprises; 6) Promoting deepened international cooperation, continuously expanding channels for international exchange, and facilitating the high-level global expansion of China's photovoltaic industry. The regulatory level has clearly signaled a continued push for high-quality industry development, strengthened top-level design, and a shift from quantitative expansion to qualitative improvement through the "anti-internal competition" initiative.
Mainstream photovoltaic companies are actively responding to policy calls, consolidating a consensus on "anti-internal competition," and exercising strict self-discipline in controlling production output. According to data from the Photovoltaic Industry Association, from January to October this year, production volumes declined year-on-year in the polysilicon and wafer segments of the main industrial chain. Polysilicon production was approximately 1.113 million metric tons, down 29.6% year-on-year, while wafer output reached 560 GW, a decrease of 6.7%. This marks the first year-on-year decline in polysilicon production since 2013 and the first for wafers since 2009. In the cell and module segments, production growth rates slowed compared to the previous year. Cell production reached about 560 GW, up 9.8% year-on-year, and module production was approximately 514 GW, increasing by 13.5% year-on-year. The decline or moderated growth in output across different segments reflects the determination and actions of mainstream enterprises towards "anti-internal competition."
Supported by policies and the self-discipline of major industry players, the "anti-internal competition" actions within the photovoltaic industrial chain are beginning to show preliminary results. From a pricing perspective, despite a demand slowdown in the second half of the year, prices have gradually bottomed out. In November, photovoltaic module prices increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the average ex-factory price for polysilicon rose by 34.4% year-on-year. Regarding corporate profitability, for the first three quarters of 2025, the combined revenue of 31 A-share listed companies in the main photovoltaic chain fell by 17% year-on-year; however, the rate of decline narrowed quarter-by-quarter, with leading enterprises showing significant improvement in reducing losses. External pessimism towards the industry is also shifting; the total market capitalization of these 31 A-share listed companies at the end of November was 37% higher than at the end of May, indicating a marginal improvement in the industry's bleak outlook.
Investment recommendation: Consider positioning in excellent photovoltaic enterprises such as GCL Technology and Junda股份. GCL Technology's proprietary granular silicon technology provides a significant cost advantage in the polysilicon segment. Junda股份 focuses on the photovoltaic cell segment, leads in TOPCon technology, and is strategically positioned in perovskite tandem cells and space photovoltaics.
Risk warnings: Policy implementation may fall short of expectations; photovoltaic demand could weaken next year; market competition remains intense.
