New Zealand Keeps Rates Unchanged, Forecasts Risk of Hike

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New Zealand Keeps Rates Unchanged, Forecasts Risk of Hike

Bloomberg2023-11-29

Kiwi dollar jumps on hawkish RBNZ comments, projectionsPolicymakers discussed the possible need for rate increasesThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand building in Wellington.New Zealand’s central bank kept...

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Saba
·2023-11-29
Disappointing
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Notably, price data indicates that imported inflation is easing faster than previously anticipated,” said analysts at Westpac ahead of the decision.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"bloomberg.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"新西兰维持利率不变，预测加息风险","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"Kiwi dollar jumps on hawkish RBNZ comments, projectionsPolicymakers discussed the possible need for rate increasesThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand building in Wellington.New Zealand’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting but signaled there’s an increased risk it could them hike again next year. The local dollar jumped.The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% Wednesday in Wellington, as expected by all 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The bank’s new forecasts show a higher track for the OCR through 2024, implying a greater chance of an increase, and no reduction until mid-2025.“Inflation remains too high, and the Committee remains wary of ongoing inflationary pressures,” the RBNZ said. “Interest rates will need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period of time.”Inflation slowed more than expected to 5.6% in the third quarter and investors have been betting the RBNZ will be among global central banks pivoting to rate cuts in 2024, possibly as soon as May. But record immigration and a housing recovery suggest it could take some time for inflation to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band.The New Zealand dollar rose almost half a US cent after the decision, extending today’s gain to 1%. It bought 61.98 US cents at 2:22 p.m. in Wellington from 61.49 cents beforehand.RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will hold a press conference at 3 p.m. local time.The RBNZ’s updated forecasts now show the average OCR rising to a peak of 5.69% next year compared to 5.59% in its previous projections. The first rate cut is now envisaged around the second quarter of 2025 rather than in the first.Hikes Discussed“Members discussed the possibility of the need for increases to the OCR,” the RBNZ said in its record of meeting. “Members agreed that with interest rates already restrictive, it was appropriate to wait for further data and information to observe the speed and extent of easing in capacity pressures in the economy.”Most economists think the OCR has peaked for this cycle and that the next move will be a cut. Still, there is a wide range of views on the timing, from as soon as February next year to as late as February 2025.“The Committee is confident that the current level of the OCR is restricting demand,” the RBNZ said. “However, ongoing excess demand and inflationary pressures are of concern, given the elevated level of core inflation. If inflationary pressures were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further.”Inflation is expected to fall below 3% by the third quarter of 2024, unchanged from the previous projections. 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