中信证券：“俄乌冲突”演变趋势推演，存在这三种情况

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中信证券：“俄乌冲突”演变趋势推演，存在这三种情况

中信证券研究2022-02-26

作者：崔嵘长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因，而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。从历史来看，地缘政治危机对主要资产走势长期影响有限。在中性情况下，我们认为 1）本次俄乌冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响，但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家，预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。2）俄罗斯股指、卢布以及欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击，美股美债或将小幅震荡。3）油价或呈倒U型走势，顶部持续时长...

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1）本次俄乌冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响，但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家，预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。2）俄罗斯股指、卢布以及欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击，美股美债或将小幅震荡。3）油价或呈倒U型走势，顶部持续时长可能约3-4周，布油价格或继续上冲逼近105-110美元/桶，预计上半年持续维持90美元/桶左右，下半年供需逆转后逐渐回落。4）金价预计未来或将延续目前高位震荡走势，年底回落至1600-1700美元/盎司。长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因，而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。在有待商榷的统治政策及西方国家影响下，乌克兰逐渐形成了当下“东乌克兰亲俄罗斯，西乌克兰亲西方”的撕裂局面。历史上，俄罗斯民族曾实际控制克里米亚地区近三百年。1954年赫鲁晓夫将克里米亚地区划归乌克兰，为后世埋下隐患。苏联解体后，乌克兰成为俄罗斯势力与西方势力的交汇点以及主要博弈区域。在大国角力的大背景下，乌克兰政治一极化倾向愈发明显，经济下行时期矛盾往往激化。本次乌克兰危机是14年克里米亚危机后的延续，直接原因是乌克兰在美北支持下对俄态度渐鹰，加入北约的趋势渐起。俄乌冲突可能存在的几种演变趋势预判：1）乐观情况：拐点已至，紧张气氛即将结束，但鉴于当前俄罗斯出兵形势，该情况出现的可能性较小。2）中性情况：乌东地区爆发一定规模的正面代理人冲突，整个事件持续数周，该情况出现的可能性较大。3）悲观情况：冲突升级为区域性战争，整个事件延续数月以上，但鉴于本次事件“天花板”已明、西方对俄资源的依赖等原因，该情况出现的可能性极小。地缘政治危机对主要资产走势长期影响有限。从历史上看，地缘政治危机对国际资本市场的影响主要有“波动情绪化、反映时效快、持续时长短、后续影响小”的特点。影响主要体现在资产价格冲击呈现“V”字型走势，形状普遍较陡，深度取决于地缘政治影响强弱。根据跌幅测算，我们认为，各大类资产价格受本次地缘政治危机的冲击程度依次是：俄罗斯股市 > 卢布 > 大宗商品 > 欧洲股指 > 美股。▍根据以上不同演变情况，我们分析了“俄乌冲突”对经济和资产价格的潜在影响，总体而言，我们倾向于中性情况，即对资产价格冲击最大的阶段或已过去。具体而言，中性情况下，本次冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响，但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家，预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。俄罗斯股指及卢布或将经历U型冲击，后续修复过程较漫长，欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击，但幅度小于俄指，美股美债或将小幅震荡。油价或呈倒U型走势，顶部持续时长可能约3-4周，布油价格或继续上冲逼近105-110美元/桶，上半年持续维持90美元/桶左右，下半年供需逆转后逐渐回落；金价预计未来或将延续目前高位震荡走势，年底回落至1600-1700美元/盎司；国际铝价后续涨幅可能在10%左右；农产品方面，小麦价格或将上行明显，至二三季度恐持续高位震荡，市场担忧情绪恐短时内难以完全消散。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9039393302,"gmtCreate":1645919766423,"gmtModify":1676534074016,"author":{"id":"3581581906530118","authorId":"3581581906530118","name":"winwin_Tan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039393302","repostId":1142065755,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9039969441,"gmtCreate":1645885879385,"gmtModify":1676534072536,"author":{"id":"3573467106982618","authorId":"3573467106982618","name":"xxbbew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39068f2ebe66e4e0b64c90ad557577c0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039969441","repostId":1142065755,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":179,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}