Etsy: Excellent Opportunity To Buy The Dip In Stock Price

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Etsy: Excellent Opportunity To Buy The Dip In Stock Price

seekingalpha2021-06-14

Summary Etsy released Q1 earnings on May 5th, 2021 and dove 14.5% due to slowing user growth and guidance for a significant revenue slowdown. Investors recently became excited in Etsy again after the...

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tg_e
·2021-06-19
Good read
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elonmusksexy
·2021-06-14
Thanks
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Poayhoan
·2021-06-14
Ok thanks
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- angieee:
  pls comment
  2021-06-14
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Marcus1993
·2021-06-14
Wow
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HolyPlumchu
·2021-06-14
Bull run already
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edamame
·2021-06-14
Go etsy
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Kah
·2021-06-14
Worth it?
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Pjun
·2021-06-14
Really?
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Etsy gave guidance that wasn't well received by investors. Growth in gross merchandise sales, or GMS, is expected to slow to a range of 5% to 15% in the second quarter. In addition, Etsy expects slowing revenue growth in the range of 15% to 25%, which is a significant slowdown from the triple-digit growth in the previous four quarters.\nData by YCharts\nThis article will examine earnings as well as examine a few of Etsy's recent growth initiatives, including the recent Depop acquisition. I will then give reasons why I think Etsy is a buy at current prices.\nFirst The Depop Acquisition\nWhen the news that Etsy acquired Depop first hit the market,the news was positively received with the stock popping 6.5% from the opening price. The acquisition gets Etsy into two exciting new areas as Depop is a play on Gen Z shoppers and the secondhand sales market. As of right now, the plan is to continue to operate Depop as its own standalone marketplace.\nOne can think of Depop as a giant international flea market in app form that uses influencer-based approach to sell secondhand clothing online. Depop's approach can also be called social commerce, where Depop encourages their sellers to build their brand on platforms like TikTok, Instagram and YouTube. Depop's approach has Gen Z hooked as Depop is the 10th most visited shopping site for the Gen Z consumer in the US. Ninety percent of Depop users are under 26, which is an attractive segment of buyers for retailers.\nWith the Depop acquisition, Etsy seems to be evolving into a home of multiple e-commerce brands that cater to different audiences. The Depop acquisition comes on the back of the Reverb acquisition that took place in 2019. Reverb is a marketplace for new and used musical instruments and equipment. Etsy sells mostly homemade goods and crafts. Depop sells mostly clothing and increasingly fashion brands are becoming attracted to the concept of using resale platforms like Depop.\nI think this is a very important acquisition for Etsy as it allows Etsy to attract younger shoppers to their family of shopping platforms. Let's look at Etsy's previous acquisition, Reverb.\nEtsy's 2019 Acquisition Reverb\nReverb was acquired by Etsy in August of 2019. Reverb is the largest online marketplace dedicated to buying and selling new, used, and vintage musical instruments. Reverb is considered the \"Etsy\" of musical instruments, so the company has significant synergy with Etsy and the acquisition was considered a strategic one for the company at the time.\nIn Q1 2021, Reverb also logged an outstanding quarter. GMS grew about 50% or about 5x faster than the musical instrument industry and Reverb continues to deepen its moat by serving as the primary marketplace for many musicians.\nReverb has four key focus areas in 2021, which include personalization,partnerships with brands like Fender to market new products, increasing investments in international growth, and continuing to improve the customer experience.\nSource:Etsy Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation\nSince the acquisition, Etsy has helped Reverb to expand its gross margins from 33% to about 53% and the purchasing power and scale of Etsy has played an important role. Many of the gains Reverb won by lowering the percentage of cost of sales in comparison to the revenues have been reinvested in marketing initiatives, and that investment in marketing has also helped to accelerate the growth of Reverb.\nEtsy is not just investing more, though, but is investing more efficiently, which Etsy shows in their slide presentation by using the GMS per marketing metric, where each dollar of marketing is now driving more GMS through the incorporation of Etsy's tools and techniques. This helps make the marketing funnel within Reverb even more efficient.\nNow let's look at how Etsy is driving customers to the original Etsy platform.\nA Few New Etsy Customer Experience Features\nSource: Etsy Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation\nOne of Etsy's goals is to retain as much of the pandemic-era surge in business as possible and turn those users into habitual buyers, which are defined by Etsy as those with 6 or more purchase days and $200 or more in spend in the trailing twelve months. Etsy would like to drive more buying frequency within both the new and habitual buyers segments and during the Q1 2021 earnings call, CEO Joshua Silverman mentioned a few new Etsy customer service features in their app to help accomplish that goal:\n\nQuizzes allows a buyer to come and tell Etsy more about their particular tastes and their particular interests in a fun way that not only makes that visit a more engaging session, but it also gives the company important information to help bring that buyer back more often to have more satisfying experiences in the future.\nBuyer Triggers are ways to notify people through using app pushes, through emails and other methods to give information that there is something new or interesting that's happening.\nUpdates Tab is like a daily feed for what's changed since the user last been on Etsy. It will for instance show items that have been left in the shopping cart that have gone on sale or it will show some new favorites that the user might be interested in to add to their list. Etsy has statistics showing that currently 13% of app visits include a visit to the Updates Tab and 27% of those visits have buyers clicking on one or more of the listings included in the updates.\nStrategic Discounting is a tool that allows the Etsy team to rapidly test and then automate and scale different types of discounts to very finely tuned customer segments.\n\nEtsy Four Pillars\nInvestors familiar with Etsy might be aware of the four pillars but for those investors not familiar with Etsy, this is the introduction to what Etsy calls their four pillars to their growth strategy. The Four strategies are:\n\nSearch & Discovery\nHuman Connections\nA Trusted Brand\nSellers' Collection of Unique Items\n\nSource: Etsy Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation\nWithin Search & Discovery, Etsy has four focus areas:\nSearch & discovery has four components with the first being personalization, which is all about making the user feel that Etsy Search understands the users' tastes and preferences. Over time, Etsy increasingly plans to do this through use of machine learning models, so that each Etsy search truly feels made just for that one specific user.\n\n Just to show you an example of that pillar [Search & Discovery], we launched the ability to personalize the search results recently, and we are seeing really encouraging gains from that, but we are still very much in the early innings, consuming more data to understand more about what that customer wants and then delivering through more sophisticated models, ever more personalized search results. But it doesn't end with just the search results themselves. We actually believe that over time, we can customize the entire experience.\n\n\n Source: CEO Joshua Silverman -Etsy Q1 2021 Earnings Call\n\nBuyer pathways is the second component and it is about making it easier for users to navigate Etsy to find the things that they want, with or without a search query.\nThe semantic gap is the third component and is all about the search engine understanding user intent.\nInfrastructure is the fourth component and Etsy has a goal to make infrastructure be fast, reliable and scalable. A few infrastructure improvements made this quarter include decreasing latency, while increasing site speed which resulted in increases in click and conversion rates. Etsy also expanded the search results for long-tail queries, leading to more satisfying buying experiences.\nSource: Etsy Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation\nThe second pillar is the thing Etsy believes makes their shopping experience special, which is Human Connections which can be helped by video and convos.\nEtsy believes each seller and product has a story to tell which can be visually brought to life by video. Sellers have now uploaded about 5 million videos to the Etsy site, which is up 36% quarter-over-quarter. Etsy also has data showing that when a listing includes a video, buyers tend to engage with it more, make a click and even have more conversions. Etsy has plans to expand the use of video beyond the listing page in the future. Stay tuned.\nEtsy also actively encourages dialogue between buyer and seller, which is fairly unique to the Etsy marketplace. Convos helps the buyer and seller to co-create, personalize or customize, or sometimes even to just form a community. This is an example of a new trend called Social Commerce, which has become popular with social networking sites like Instagram, YouTube and Facebook. Etsy is one of the few ecommerce sites approaching Social Commerce from the other side by making a shopping experience more into a social network.\nSource: Etsy Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation\nThe third pillar is trust and this area contains four components.\nThe first is speed expectation, which is simply making sure that the expected delivery date is very clear to buyers.\nSecond is delivery predictability, which means providing transparency into order status from production through delivery.\nThird is issue resolution, which is making it even easier to access support and knowing Etsy customer service is on top of any issues in the case that something goes wrong.\nFourth is seller reputation, which gives sellers even more visibility into how they are performing versus key customer satisfaction metrics, as well as setting the bar for what good looks like. Etsy would like to create a race to the top by sellers, which makes the buyer experience improve.\nSource: Etsy Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation\nThe last pillar, Etsy considers to be their foundation, which is their sellers' collection of unique items. Ninety percent of buyers report that they come to Etsy for items that they can't find anywhere else. One of the most special parts of Etsy is that most things on Etsy can be personalized and customized. Etsy has found that buyers are 20% more likely to make a purchase when they are looking for customized or personalized items. Etsy has developed a focus for this year to highlight and showcase items that can be personalized and customized as well as streamlining that process of co-creation between the buyer and the seller.\nEtsy Q1 2021 Earnings\nEtsy released its Q1 earnings results on May 5th, 2021 and the results were excellent. Etsy beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines but moving forward, Etsy projected slowing growth for both revenue and gross merchandise sales or GMS, which disappointed investors.\nEtsy Q1 Consolidated GMS was $3.1 billion, up 132.3% year-over-year; while Etsy marketplace GMS was $2.9 billion, up 144.1% year-over-year. GMS per active buyer for the Etsy marketplace on a trailing twelve month basis grew 20% year-over-year. GMS from paid channels was 21% of overall GMS, expanding 500 basis points compared to the first quarter of 2020. On a consolidated basis, international GMS expanded 200 basis points sequentially to 42% of overall GMS. International GMS grew faster than the overall growth, accelerating to 169%.\nCustomer cohorts continue to show that Etsy is driving increased frequency and engagement from all of the different buyer segments. The Etsy marketplace acquired approximately 16.3 million new and reactivated buyers who haven't purchased in a year or more. Habitual buyers was the fastest growing segment yet again and are Etsy's most loyal and engaged buyers with 205% growth year-over-year to 8 million, which is the highest ever growth for that particular buyer segment.\nConsolidated revenue was $550.6 million, up 141.5% versus the same period of 2020, with a take rate (Consolidated revenue divided by Consolidated GMS) of 17.5%. Marketplace revenue was up 165.3% to $413.64 Million Y/Y. Service revenue was up 89.9% to $137 Million.\nData by YCharts\nGross profit came in at $407.73 million with gross margins of 74%.\nData by YCharts\nOperating expenses grew 113.8% to $257.09 Million. Operating income was $150.64 Million. Operating margin was 27.36%.\nData by YCharts\nNet income grew 1,048.1% over 2020 to $143.77 Million. Earnings per share were $1.00 vs. consensus expectations of $0.97 (compared to $0.10 for Q1 2020). Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) came in at $184.07 Million with 33% Adjusted EBITDA margin.\nData by YCharts\nGuidance For Q2\nBecause of the ongoing pandemic worldwide and worldwide macroeconomic conditions which can possibly impact consumer spending and external e-commerce forecasts, Etsy decided to only give guidance for Q2.\nEtsy estimates Q2 consolidated GMS to be approximately $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion or about 5% to 15% compared to Q2 of last year, revenue of $493 million to $536 million, up 15% to 25% versus last year, and adjusted EBITDA of $129 million to $144 million with a margin in the range of 25% to 28%.\nBalance Sheet\nData by YCharts\nAs of March 31, Etsy had $1.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments in addition to a $200 million revolver that is currently undrawn. Etsy has a capital light business model and the cost structure is highly variable to revenue, as it continued to take measures to optimize and scale the marketplace.\nData by YCharts\nEtsy has $427.05 Million in current liabilities and $1.3 Billion in long-term liabilities. Etsy has a Debt To Equity ratio of 1.98. Quick Ratio (Acid Test) is 4.33. A good quick ratio is any number greater than 1.0. Etsy has a Piotroski F Score of 7.0. A company that has Piotroski F-score of 8-9 is considered to be strong. Alternatively, firms achieving the F-score of 0-2 are considered to be weak. Etsy is currently in a decent position debt-wise.\nRisks\nEtsy is not without risks. One of the primary risks in the short term is that Etsy is perceived as a \"COVID\" stock or a company that has benefited from the pandemic. That sentiment is not all perception as the pandemic forced many people to shop at home, which helped all e-commerce companies in general and the pandemic increased the amount of people that wanted to start their own business creating products out of their home, as many people lost their regular jobs in the pandemic and tried other ways to produce income, like becoming an Etsy seller for example.\nSo the pandemic strengthened both sides of Etsy's two sided market. The problem, of course, is as the pandemic winds down, there are fears that both the seller and buyer side of Etsy's market might weaken and slow growth. I expect that this risk will only be short term, however, as I think Etsy should maintain a majority of the gains made during the pandemic.\nEtsy also has longer term structural risks, however, as Etsy differentiates itself by branding itself as a market for handmade and artisan goods. Critics of the company have questioned Etsy's policies that mandate sustainability and handmade goods, which are goals that sound nice but could make it difficult for Etsy to achieve growth in the future.\nHowever, the dilemma for Etsy is that any shifting away from handmade goods and the being \"good for the environment\" branding could annoy buyers that shop on Etsy precisely because many of these buyers like handmade & personalized goods, while also liking any behavior that helps the environment. The problem is that as the Etsy gets larger, increasingly, it appears that Etsy is being accused of becoming just another marketplace that is selling less and less handmade goods. So, there is a danger that customers noticing that potential shift of Etsy from its original values could cause the company to lose its differentiation and cause those customers to shop elsewhere.\nAnother offshoot of Etsy getting larger is showing up in the fact that as the company has been trying to increase their own revenues and profitability, they have been making it increasingly harder for sellers and in the end that has been pushing away the smaller sellers that have helped them build the business in the first place. Etsy's ability to attract sellers is crucial for the success of their business and anything making the business less attractive for sellers can hurt the business long term.\nThose smaller sellers do have other places where they can sell their wares too. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has started their own handcrafted goods section on their main website to compete against Etsy. Even if smaller sellers do not like Amazon, there are avenues to sell handmade or custom products through Pinterest, as that company ramps up its ecommerce ambitions.\nAn additional risk is Etsy's international expansion efforts. I haven't talked much about international expansion in this article but it is crucial to the company's growth efforts. Etsy has been expanding outside the USA since 2005 but that growth is not without risk. The expansion in markets outside of the United States often requires significant financial investment without guarantees of financial success, as most areas of the world already have developed powerful ecommerce marketplace competitors that could provide significant competition to Etsy.\nValuation\n\n\n\nCompany\nMkt Cap\nPrice/Sales\nPrice/Earnings (FWD)\nEBITDA Growth (Y/Y) %\nRevenue Growth (Y/Y) %\nOperating Margin%\nRevenues\n\n\nEtsy (ETSY)\n$21.63B\n11.41\n47.26\n395.3\n141.5\n27.36\n$550.6 M\n\n\nWayfair (W)\n$34.70B\n2.356\n73.64\nNM\n49.25\n1.11\n$3.5 B\n\n\nPinterest (PINS)\n$42.06B\n21.77\n75.73\nNM\n78.43\n-4.72\n$485 M\n\n\neBay (EBAY)\n$44.83B\n4.132\n16.96\n39.09\n41.99\n27.85\n$3.0 B\n\n\nAmazon (AMZN)\n$1.65T\n4.088\n60.73\n98.07\n43.82\n8.17\n$108.5 B\n\n\n\nNM - not meaningful\nThere are a lot of online marketplaces worldwide but it was really hard for me to think of a comparable for Etsy. First, it is hard to find a similar-sized ecommerce company. Second, Etsy is really unique because of a strong emphasis on the ability to customize products and search for unique items. Most other marketplaces sell the same or similar products. Consumers seemed to value customizable handmade products during the pandemic and Etsy grew at a blistering pace, albeit off a lower base.\nThe company that I consider most comparable to Etsy is aspiring Social Commerce company Pinterest(NYSE:PINS)because they are very roughly at similar sizes in revenues and they both are attractive websites for women. While I also consider Pinterest a buy, I consider Etsy, even more of a buy relative to Pinterest. Etsy has been growing revenues faster and has been consistently more profitable than Pinterest, yet Pinterest has consistently sold at a higher value than Etsy over the few valuation metrics that I looked at.\nData by YCharts\nData by YCharts\nData by YCharts\nThe two most recent analyst upgrades/downgrades on Etsy are from 1) Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni, who maintained a Buy rating on Etsy with a price target of $260 on 6/9/2021 and 2) Atlantic Equities initiating Etsy with price target of $200 on 6/7/2021 with the following commentary:\n\n \"Its assortment of unique, handcrafted, personalized goods is another barrier to entry, and the community of sellers and buyers Etsy has already established would be difficult to replicate.\"\n\n\n Source: Atlantic Equities -Seeking Alpha\n\nThe following is based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Etsy in the last 3 months. The average price target is $222.40 with a high forecast of $270.00 and a low forecast of $135.00. The average price target represents a 34.12% from the last price of $165.82.\nSource:Yahoo Finance\nConclusion\nIn a similar fashion to my recent article on Pinterest, the uncertainty over COVID-19 provides an opportunity for investors to get into Etsy's stock. The fears over slowing growth due the pandemic subsiding should be only a short-term event. Investors should use the current dip in Etsy stock to either initiate a position or add to a position. Etsy is a buy for growth investors.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":165929636,"gmtCreate":1624088597725,"gmtModify":1703828640171,"author":{"id":"3576908653302466","authorId":"3576908653302466","name":"tg_e","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576908653302466","authorIdStr":"3576908653302466"},"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good 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