The 2025 Analyst Conference, often regarded as the "Oscars" of the capital markets, commenced on November 28, bringing together hundreds of industry research chiefs, public and private fund managers, and authoritative scholars to explore investment strategies for navigating economic cycles. The event gathered top-tier talent from both research and investment sectors.
Li Yang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Chairman of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, and Vice Chairman of the First Venture Bond Research Institute, delivered a keynote speech at the conference.
Li emphasized that asset management and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) have become pivotal forces in capital market development. The wealth management market is projected to exceed 32 trillion yuan by 2025, with growing investor demand for equity and hybrid wealth management products.
Li highlighted significant structural changes in social financing during the first ten months of this year. Data shows that RMB deposits reached 325.55 trillion yuan, while loans stood at 270.61 trillion yuan, with deposits exceeding loans by 8.35 trillion yuan. Household deposits alone increased by 10.65 trillion yuan, marking the third consecutive year of "disintermediation" in capital flows. On the monetary supply front, both M2 and M1 have shown growth, with M1 expanding faster, indicating improved liquidity. The leverage gap between assets and liabilities in the financial sector narrowed by early 2025, reflecting a trend of capital outflow from the banking system—a favorable condition for capital market growth.
Declining interest rates have become a defining feature of China's financial landscape. Since 2015, interest rates have entered a downward trajectory, with yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds consistently falling. As of November 24, 2025, the 10-year and 30-year treasury bond yields stood at 1.8210% and 2.1586%, respectively. The weighted average interest rate for newly issued loans dropped to 3.24% in September, while money market rates, including interbank lending and pledged repo rates, also declined. Continued reductions in reserve requirement ratios have further driven rates downward. Globally, the U.S., Japan, and the Eurozone have maintained ultra-low or even negative interest rates, attributed to factors such as declining global potential growth rates, financialization of the real economy, and shifts in monetary policy paradigms.
The low-interest-rate environment has multifaceted impacts: while reducing financing costs for the real economy, it has also compressed banks' net interest margins to a historic low of 1.42%, forcing financial institutions to adapt. Against this backdrop, capital market development has gained prominence. China's financial structure has long been characterized by underdeveloped capital markets and low direct financing ratios, with "abundant capital but scarce equity" emerging as a critical challenge. Consequently, capital market development has become a focal point of financial reforms in the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Asset management and M&A are playing crucial roles in this transformation. The wealth management sector is expected to surpass 32 trillion yuan by 2025, with rising demand for equity and hybrid products. Meanwhile, M&A has become a vital tool for economic restructuring in an era of存量 (stock) economy. The introduction of the "Six M&A Rules" has relaxed target qualifications, streamlined approval processes, and facilitated cross-sector acquisitions, technology acquisition, and expanded listing pathways—all of which are injecting new vitality into capital markets.
