李录”逃顶“比亚迪，是什么事情让他”恐惧“？

阿尔法工场研究院2021-07-19

“李录减持比亚迪，让人不禁想起当年巴菲特卖出中石油。” 如果说，美国是车轮上的国家，那四个车轮就是在底特律安装的。底特律，除了拥有通用、福特、克莱斯勒三大车企外，还肩负着拉开每年车展大片序幕的使命。底特律车展，被称作燃油车的天堂，大马力后驱车，大排量全尺寸皮卡，隆隆的排气声是底特律永远的主旋律。展馆小、概念古板陈旧等原因让底特律车展近年来失色不少，比亚迪总裁王传福和股神巴菲特在2009年车展...

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Comment（15）

海星辰
·2021-07-19
買入比亞迪的時機到了
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再努力一点吧
·2021-07-19
我只想知道哪裏可以看到李錄的操作
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xxmm332244
·2021-07-19
再看
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1
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股获好朋友
·2021-07-19
中國散戶將打爆他
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小喵咪
·2021-07-19
一個買辦的所作所爲，還寫個文章分析哈哈哈。
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1
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战无忧
·2021-07-19
後續多關注
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1
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- 小闸蟹:
  [财迷][财迷][财迷]
  2021-07-19
  Reply
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清风_8895
·2021-07-19
比亞迪纔剛開始，再者他只賣了六七分之一的倉位，比亞迪不可能赴美上市，放心
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4
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阿O
·2021-07-19
李錄是王傳福老表麼，，
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- 涛哥教练:
  不是
  2021-07-28
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凌夜
·2021-07-19
低買高賣罷了，等80以下再入
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3
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imggg
·2021-07-19
沒啥乾貨
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1
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土豆灰灰
·2021-07-19
看完也沒看出她恐懼什麼
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4
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驿动
·2021-07-19
巴菲特的確眼光獨到，那麼早看中比亞迪
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- 考拉的尾巴:
  是的，是的
  2021-07-19
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- 考拉的尾巴:
  那是芒格让他买的，要不是芒格巴菲特都没想过比亚迪
  2021-07-19
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- 驿动:
  徒弟也也不差，及时减持
  2021-07-19
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zj06
·2021-07-19
?
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mjng
·2021-07-19
Great
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- CMChai100:
  有什么好Great 的呢？
  2021-07-19
  Reply
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Jet2017
·2021-07-19
因爲滴滴
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4
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What made him \"afraid\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75da55bc88c09d095e8df71bd43c923d","symbols_score_info":{"002594":0.9,"00285":0.9,"01211":0.9},"content_text":"“李录减持比亚迪，让人不禁想起当年巴菲特卖出中石油。”\n如果说，美国是车轮上的国家，那四个车轮就是在底特律安装的。\n底特律，除了拥有通用、福特、克莱斯勒三大车企外，还肩负着拉开每年车展大片序幕的使命。\n底特律车展，被称作燃油车的天堂，大马力后驱车，大排量全尺寸皮卡，隆隆的排气声是底特律永远的主旋律。\n展馆小、概念古板陈旧等原因让底特律车展近年来失色不少，比亚迪总裁王传福和股神巴菲特在2009年车展期间的一次会晤，却成为少有的亮点。\n这是巴菲特入股比亚迪之后，双方的首次正式会晤。\n尽管在过去的13年间，比亚迪的股价几经起落，但随着新能源景气度的提升，比亚迪的股价距离年初的历史高点仅一步之遥，巴菲特也因此获利超过30倍。\n但谁也没有想到，那个早期重仓并推荐比亚迪给巴菲特的投资人李录，却在7月8日、9日连续减持比亚迪H股1077.15万股，套现24.39亿元，其持股比例从7.03%下降至6%，比亚迪的市值也在两天之内蒸发了600亿。\n李录为何会有如此影响力？因何在此时减持比亚迪？这是本文将要解答的两个问题。\n01 替芒格管钱的人\n李录是芒格的学生，和巴菲特关系非常好，虽然在散户中名气不大，但在机构眼里的江湖地位很高。\n猫腻小说里有个词叫“天下行走”，是指某门派在江湖上的代言人，李录就有点像巴菲特派的“天下行走”。\n所以无论他做什么交易，都会引发巨大的跟风盘。\n\n邮储银行季线\n去年四季度，李录买入邮储银行H股，之后股价直接翻倍。\n\n阿里巴巴季线\n同样是去年，李录先后在二季度和三季度分别清仓了阿里巴巴美股和H股。\n\n拼多多季线\n紧接着，李录又在四季度建仓了拼多多，尽管公司股价在今年一季度创出了212.6美元的高点，但随着中概股上市监管风暴的来袭，如今拼多多的股价较高点几近腰斩，而李录的这笔投资恐早已大幅缩水。\n除了比亚迪、邮储银行、阿里巴巴这些股票，早些年李录在新浪和微博上的操作，也颇具看点。\n\n新浪和微博季线\n2018年二季度，李录同时清仓了新浪和微博，随后股价下跌了一大波，至今还未涨回到其卖出的价格。\n国外同行曾用一段英文来表达对李录的赞誉，翻译成中文的意思大致是这样的：\n李录，是世界上最神秘的顶级投资者（类似神龙，见首不见尾），比肩世界顶级投资大师巴菲特。如此厉害且深藏不漏的人物，连智慧超群的芒格先生也将自己的家族基金交给其多年来持续打理，尽享世界顶级复合回报的高增长的快乐和安全。我们很少看到芒格对一个人如此欣赏和喜欢。\n常在河边走哪有不湿鞋，李录对百度的错判，成为了其投资生涯中为数不多的败笔。\n\n百度季线\n2018年二季度，李录对持有的百度进行了大幅减持，随后，又在2019年四季度，清仓了剩余的股票，结果不言自明。\n除了上述那些李录操盘过的股票，一个圈内的朋友还慷慨分享了他的“发现”：极其低调的李录在A股过去几年，不声不响的在贵州茅台上赚了100亿元，在上海机场赚了好几倍。\n同时，他还透露了李录投资的方法论：掌握准确和全面的信息。\n这就不难解释为何常居美国的李录，会对中国公司如此了解，会选择长期持有比亚迪。\n02 减持因为“恐高”？\n千禧年前后，中国汽车工业开始进入“井喷”式发展阶段，奇瑞、吉利等一批自主车企诞生，赶上了那波增长红利。\n2002年7月31日，比亚迪在香港主板发行上市，但当时的比亚迪并未涉足汽车业务。\n2003年1月22日，比亚迪以2.695亿元购得西安秦川汽车有限责任公司，王传福决定正式进军汽车业务。\n但这样的决定，却遭到了机构投资者的一致强烈反对。\n两天之后，股市刚一开盘，几家持有比亚迪的基金便抛售股票，公司股价应声下跌，两天内比亚迪的市值蒸发近27亿港元。\n而同一时期，李录却选择重金买入比亚迪，至于原因，我们在他的《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》一书中找到了答案：\n比亚迪恰好拥有天时地利人和，处在对的行业和环境中，在恰当的时候得到了政府的支持。公司的工程师文化让比亚迪拥有解决重大难题的能力，投资比亚迪的时候，我们在价格上是有很大安全边际的……\n除了李录的书，在复盘他的整个投资之路后，我们发现大概只有两种情况会让他选择卖出股票：一是大逻辑变了，二是觉得估值实在太高。\n我们先来看看大逻辑，早在去年年末，《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021-2035 年）》与《节能与新能源汽车技术路线图2.0》就为行业奠定了基调：行业长期成长趋势。\n日前，华夏基金投资研究部总监郑泽鸿也公开表示：新能源板块是一个长期向上的赛道，行业天花板很高。尤其是新能源车，处于渗透率快速提高的阶段。根据7月9号中国汽车工业协会发布的数据，6月份国内新能源汽车产量的渗透率达到了12.76%，创历史新高，新能源车的盈利也超预期，毋庸置疑，这是一个非常值得投资的赛道。\n显然，新能源的大逻辑并未发生变化。\n我们再来看看估值，在某投资人看来，市盈率164倍的比亚迪（港股120多倍），按现价买入，假设净利润年化能按30%增长（非常难，茅台过去都没达到这个增长率），也需要14年左右才能回本，现在它一把给你，不兑现才叫傻。\n除了比亚迪，近期不少新能源相关股票的估值又回到了年初的高点和历史的高位，整个行业景气度已经到达一个空前的高度。究竟有没有透支预期？但凡有点投资经验的人，想必都能看出来。\n这样看来，“恐高”才是李录阶段看空并减持比亚迪的主要原因。\n03 结语\n比亚迪，从一只符合格雷厄姆标准的股票，到站上新能源风口浪尖的今天，仅用了10余年。\n随着李录的减持，比亚迪的股价接下来何去何从？可能是广大股民最为关心的。\n在这里，借用被投资人视为“业界最良心基金经理”的杨东在年初的一段话来给出答案：“也许个别强大且幸运的领先企业可以通过时间来化解估值，成为最终真正的王者，但大多数被爆炒的新能源股票恐怕未来只能以股价的大幅下跌来消化估值了。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":173475863,"gmtCreate":1626683719052,"gmtModify":1703763281475,"author":{"id":"3557309240677406","authorId":"3557309240677406","name":"海星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/516c3206ce72ee8a8f229024e23323ea","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557309240677406","authorIdStr":"3557309240677406"},"htmlText":"買入比亞迪的時機到了","listText":"買入比亞迪的時機到了","text":"買入比亞迪的時機到了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173475863","repostId":1143509159,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":173438473,"gmtCreate":1626677900892,"gmtModify":1703763182602,"author":{"id":"3581985384988590","authorId":"3581985384988590","name":"再努力一点吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be526e2b77f190eaf46c3fe0e3cf4e55","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581985384988590","authorIdStr":"3581985384988590"},"htmlText":"我只想知道哪裏可以看到李錄的操作","listText":"我只想知道哪裏可以看到李錄的操作","text":"我只想知道哪裏可以看到李錄的操作","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173438473","repostId":1143509159,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":173404942,"gmtCreate":1626676385886,"gmtModify":1703763157857,"author":{"id":"3585896966785401","authorId":"3585896966785401","name":"xxmm332244","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0fc3c0aec872232bf3a880795e6d919","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585896966785401","authorIdStr":"3585896966785401"},"htmlText":"再看","listText":"再看","text":"再看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173404942","repostId":1143509159,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":173573846,"gmtCreate":1626674985985,"gmtModify":1703763135116,"author":{"id":"3550169209500564","authorId":"3550169209500564","name":"股获好朋友","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f068626600a3eafbcc5bad89064d80da","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550169209500564","authorIdStr":"3550169209500564"},"htmlText":"中國散戶將打爆他","listText":"中國散戶將打爆他","text":"中國散戶將打爆他","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173573846","repostId":1143509159,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":173540886,"gmtCreate":1626673626545,"gmtModify":1703763118003,"author":{"id":"3569205570416323","authorId":"3569205570416323","name":"小喵咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013bd025a0dbb78e031a7df7da9b7297","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569205570416323","authorIdStr":"3569205570416323"},"htmlText":"一個買辦的所作所爲，還寫個文章分析哈哈哈。","listText":"一個買辦的所作所爲，還寫個文章分析哈哈哈。","text":"一個買辦的所作所爲，還寫個文章分析哈哈哈。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173540886","repostId":1143509159,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":173523350,"gmtCreate":1626671606770,"gmtModify":1703763091745,"author":{"id":"3525837440986403","authorId":"3525837440986403","name":"战无忧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3525837440986403","authorIdStr":"3525837440986403"},"htmlText":"後續多關注","listText":"後續多關注","text":"後續多關注","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173523350","repostId":1143509159,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"twee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