银保监会官员：全球经济处敏感时期，短期难回常态

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银保监会官员：全球经济处敏感时期，短期难回常态

新浪财经2021-06-24

2021财新夏季峰会于2021年6月23-25日在北京举办，中国银行保险监督管理委员会领导于学军出席并演讲。于学军表示，全球经济正处于演进变化的敏感时期，短期内难以回归常态。他解释称，首先，今年全球经济面临的复杂性和敏感性是受去年新冠肺炎疫情在全球的暴发、蔓延而形成的，“这个冲击太大了”。他引用联合国报告称这“是自上世纪30年代经济大萧条以来，全球经济最严重的收缩，收缩的程度是2009年国际...

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BigCash
·2021-06-25
[財迷]
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Heytorres
·2021-06-25
666
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Chiazhe
·2021-06-24
666
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豚儿
·2021-06-24
666
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Kaslim
·2021-06-24
Good
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山那边的英英子
·2021-06-24
b
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Ellyelvc87
·2021-06-24
well say
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- 山那边的英英子:
  j
  2021-06-24
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GoatYen
·2021-06-24
like
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kiore
·2021-06-24
就是還會印錢的意思。
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“这个（增长）2.3%，现在非常有名，我们看电视、报纸，包括国外的一些学者，他们也经常提起来2.3%。”\n\n第二，由于新冠疫情对全球经济形成的罕见冲击，所以各国政府普遍实行了超宽松的刺激性经济政策，历史比较来看，这些政策力度是空前的，在各国稳定经济和维护社会秩序等方面均发挥了重要作用，但与此同时这些超宽松的政策也带来许多问题。\n第三，全球地缘政治的变化和影响。\n于学军表示，控制疫情的关键环节在于疫苗的研发和接种，各国都希望可以毕其功于一役，现在看进展很快，远超出人们之前的预期。未来如何变化取决于两个因素，一是疫苗的有效性，包括有效期，尚有待时间检验。\n二是新冠病毒变异的速度和复杂性。“过去我们做银行监管常说的一句话，叫做‘监管就是与风险赛跑’，今天我们把这句话借用过来，我们认为抗击新冠疫情实际上也是与新冠病毒的变异赛跑”，他说，总体来看人类抗击新冠疫情的形势已现光明，现在普遍看起来是乐观情绪主导，相信对经济的负面影响也会逐步减弱。\n谈及超宽松的刺激性政策何去何从，于学军分析了美国的情况。\n去年在特朗普执政时期，新冠肺炎在美国大面积传染之后，美联储在3月中旬一次性将联邦储备利率由1.5%-1.75%调低为0%到0.25%，即所谓的“零利率”。年末美联储又加大QE政策，从12月起将其购债规模每月增加到1200亿美元。\n拜登总统上任之后，进一步加大财政的刺激性政策，最具代表性的就是于今年4月通过的1.9万亿美元的新冠纾困法案。另外，他还提出基建投资的复兴计划。开始拟定的是2.25万亿规模，最近有所压缩，预计约1万亿美元。\n去年开始美联储实行超宽松的货币政策，使其资产负债表大幅增加，已从初期的约4万亿美元陡增至年末的7.5万亿美元，最新大概达到8万亿美元。这使全球的美元流动性不断膨胀，并造成大宗初级商品的价格大幅上涨，包括粮食也出现罕见的涨价现象，全球对通胀的担忧由此产生。\n于学军认为，随着美国抗疫形势出现好转，在货币超宽松刺激政策累加的作用之下，美国经济出现强势反弹，最新据经合组织OECD中期经济展望预测，今年美国经济将增长6.9%，比之前的预测调高了0.4个百分点。\n针对这些新变化，美联储在6月最新的议息会议上已开始释放鹰派信号，市场预计美联储加息或提前一年至2022年下半年。另外通货膨胀预期也被大幅上调，预计2021年美国的PCE及个人消费支出价格指数将升到3.4%，较3月的预测值上调1个百分点。于学军称，\n\n “我们处于这样一个宏观调控政策有可能随时发生调整变化的窗口期，所以市场表现极为敏感，一个信息、美联储的一句措词都有可能引起市场的巨大波动。现在粮食、铁矿石、石油、黄金、汇率几乎每天都出现上涨、下跌，有不同的变化，没有一致的方向，处在这样的一个敏感期。”\n\n为什么短期常态难回归呢？他给出两个原因：\n一是新冠疫情的冲击太大，现在疫情控制仍然难以预料。另外，疫情控制之后其对人类社会产生的重大影响，尤其是对经济活动的影响，也需要一个时间进行评估。\n二是各国超宽松的刺激性政策形成了重大影响，这些政策的退出需要一个较长的过程，并且覆水难收，尤其是美联储投放出去的基础货币很难在短期收回，也许会成为一段历史永远保留下去。\n\n “2008年美国发生金融危机之后，美联储就实行了量化宽松的货币政策，这个之前美联储的资产负债表不到9000亿美元，后来最高增加到了4.5万亿美元，现在又增加到8万亿美元。这样计算下来，\n 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