Stocks fell Monday on fears that the Federal Reserve may continue tightening until it steers the economy into a recession.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 210 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid by 0.6% each.
Investors are looking ahead to the next week’s Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the conclusion of the central bank’s December policy meeting.
Following a speech last week by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, markets largely expect the central bank will approve a 0.5 percentage point interest rate increase. That would make a step down from a series of four straight 0.75 percentage point hikes.
However, Powell also said the “terminal rate,” or point where the Fed stops raising, likely “will need to be somewhat higher” than indicated at the September meeting. That could mean a fed funds rate that ends up in excess of 5%, from its current target range of 3.75%-4%.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report helped add to Fed anxiety. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% for November, twice the Dow Jones estimate, and the 12-month increase was 5.1%, half a percentage point above expectations. Wage pressures on inflation could force the Fed into an even more aggressive stance.
Wall Street is coming off its second positive week in a row, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advancing 1.1% and 2.1%, respectively. The Dow advanced 0.2% last week.
Despite the recent rally, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson said the risk-reward for equities has likely reached its cap as it nears the bank’s original tactical target range of 4,000 to 4,150.
“As suggested two weeks ago, for this tactical rally to go higher, back end rates would need to fall,” he said in a note to clients Monday. “Fast forward to today and that’s what has happened. However, we are now right into our original upside targets and we recommend taking profits before the Bear returns in earnest.”
In other news, Tesla shares slumped more than 4% Monday on reports of an output cut at its Shanghai factory. Macao-linked casino stocks gained on hopes of easing Covid-19 restrictions.
On the economic front, investors are expecting the November ISM services data at 10 a.m. ET on Monday. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a reading of 53.7.