To The Moon

Shanghai has released a major policy document outlining its development strategy for strategic emerging industries through the 15th Five-Year Plan period, covering 6G, AI, solid-state batteries, and more. The plan emphasizes integrating satellite internet with BeiDou, 6G, and AI, accelerating commercial applications, and advancing key technologies including edge AI chips, next-generation displays, and flexible sensors.

Brokerages are optimistic about the related industrial chains. Market Research Future projects the global 6G market will surpass $340 billion by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate of 58.1%. China Galaxy Securities notes that China's 6G R&D is accelerating with supportive policies driving long-term growth in satellite communications and integrated space-air-ground networks. CICC remains bullish on the AI computing power chain, highlighting opportunities in domestic computing infrastructure—servers, switches, and liquid cooling—and overseas computing with strong CSP capital expenditure driving ASIC, optical modules, and 800G/1.6T interconnect upgrades.

Nvidia's Earnings: The Pivotal Test for the AI Bull Market

Nvidia will report fiscal Q2 2027 earnings after the US market close on Wednesday. Wall Street expects revenue of approximately $92 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $2.09 and data center revenue around $85.4 billion. Goldman Sachs warns that given the stock's 12% rise in August, merely beating expectations and raising guidance may not be enough—the company must also demonstrate improved profitability for hyperscalers, manageable customer financing, and substantial capital returns.

The market's question is no longer whether Nvidia will deliver strong results, but whether it can provide sufficient answers beyond the beat. From options pricing to institutional divergence and concerns about power bottlenecks, this earnings report will test whether the AI bull market can advance to its next phase.

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Shows Cooling; Rate Hike Odds Edge Higher

The US July PCE price index rose 3.7% year-over-year, with cooling consumption giving the Fed room to hold rates steady. Following the data release, market pricing for a September rate hike rose to approximately 42%, up from 36% beforehand. The most likely timing for a hike this year is December. US stocks opened slightly lower—Dow down 0.19%, S&P 500 down 0.02%, Nasdaq down 0.22%—while Treasury yields ticked up with the 10-year at 4.635%. The dollar index rose nearly 10 points to 99.03, and spot gold dropped $11 to $4,619 per ounce.

Two key events will drive trading this week: Nvidia's earnings for AI momentum signals, and Fed Chair Warsh's first major speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, which will set the tone for the rate path.

CATL Shares Pare Gains After Lithium Mine Setback

CATL's share price reversed sharply from a 2% gain around 10 AM, closing at 379 yuan, up 0.6%, with a market value of 1.79 trillion yuan. The Yichun City Ecology and Environment Bureau withdrew the environmental impact report disclosure for CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine project after public concerns about the previous website disclosure. A source close to CATL said the company will cooperate with government approval procedures regarding next steps for the mine.

MiniMax Reports ARR Exceeding $800 Million

At its 2026 interim results briefing, MiniMax disclosed August annual recurring revenue surpassing $800 million, with Q2 revenue up 81.8% quarter-over-quarter. July token consumption reached 20 times January levels, and B2B business now contributes over 80% of total ARR. The company states it is one of only two independent large model companies in China to have established large-scale, long-term stable infrastructure, achieving 97% effective training time ratio.

Iranian Stocks Surge on Strait of Hormuz Developments

The Tehran Stock Exchange composite index jumped 155,000 points to break above 6,385,000, with 90% of stocks rising and over 80% gaining 2%–3%. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced a new understanding with Oman on Hormuz Strait shipping routes: entry routes will pass through Iranian waters, exit routes through Omani and Iranian waters, with military vessels prohibited and only commercial ships allowed. Reports also suggest US-Iran consensus on ceasefire terms including freedom of navigation in the strait.

Bill Gates Warns of Unpreparedness for the AI Era

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates published a 6,000-word essay warning that global leaders are insufficiently prepared for AI's impact—his first comprehensive commentary on the technology in three years. Gates suggests designating certain jobs as "human reserved" to prevent AI displacement, warns governments are unprepared for the coming "turbulent period," and details concerns about AI empowering criminals and affecting youth development.

Zhipu Claims Ownership of Mystery AI Model "Ox Alpha"

Zhipu confirmed that Ox Alpha, the mysterious model that swept developer communities, is its creation, releasing model weights publicly that evening. The model, a new iteration of its GLM series named after the recent film "Ox Comes," was anonymously listed on OpenRouter last weekend. Its free access and strong performance propelled it to the platform's top usage ranking, now exceeding DeepSeek's usage by more than two-fold. Zhipu plans to release its first detailed financial report covering the six months since its January listing next Monday.

DeepSeek Reports 10-Fold Revenue Growth in First Seven Months

DeepSeek's commercialization is accelerating, with revenue of approximately 475 million yuan ($70.7 million) in the first seven months—about 10 times its full-year 2025 revenue—and API gross margins of 82.9%. Net losses narrowed to approximately 715 million yuan from 935 million in 2025. The company is negotiating a second funding round targeting 50 billion yuan at a 500 billion yuan valuation. Following its first 500 billion yuan round in June, DeepSeek has hired investment banks to prepare for a Shanghai listing next year.

Li Auto's Q2 Results Miss on Guidance Despite Revenue Beat

Li Auto reported Q2 revenue of 25.67 billion yuan, down 15% year-over-year but slightly above the 24.96 billion yuan estimate. Net loss was 1.71 billion yuan versus a 1.10 billion yuan profit a year ago, with adjusted net loss of 1.50 billion yuan exceeding the 1.15 billion yuan expected loss. Gross margin narrowed sharply to 11% from 20.1%. Q3 revenue guidance came in more than 15% below market expectations.

Memory Price Surge: Global Shortage May Persist Through 2027

AI computing demand is driving memory chip prices sharply higher, with upstream cost pressures transmitting downstream. Amazon has raised prices on multiple hardware products, following similar moves by Apple, Microsoft, and Dell through price increases and reduced base memory configurations. IDC warns the global memory shortage could persist until 2027, with prices potentially peaking in 2028. Morgan Stanley warns of aggressive memory price increases with Q3 mature-process DRAM potentially rising 50%. Tianfeng Securities attributes the memory recovery to structural demand changes, rational supply expansion, and inventory cycle repair, with price levels expected to find fundamental support.

Other Sectors to Watch

Power: Computing electricity demand is growing explosively, with Changshu, Jiangsu seeing computing power consumption exceed air conditioning usage. AI Large Models: Alibaba's Qwen released the Qwen3.8-Flash model. Nuclear Fusion: Domestic fusion energy financing reached 8 billion yuan in H1, up approximately 233-fold year-over-year. Commercial Aerospace: CAS Space's Lijian-2 Y2 rocket passed factory review, targeting launch in October.

Positive Announcements

1. Lianxun Instruments: H1 net profit of 567 million yuan, up 903% year-over-year. 2. Hua Hong Semiconductor: H1 net profit of 399 million yuan, up 436.69%. 3. Hengtong Optic-Electric: H1 net profit up 93.38%, with optical communications revenue up over 130%. 4. Dapu Micro: Signed enterprise PCIe SSD sales orders worth approximately 3.491 billion yuan. 5. Tefa Information: H1 net profit of 62.07 million yuan, up 1007.52%.

Negative Announcements

1. Zhongguancun: Controlling shareholder Gome Holdings' 8.23% stake will be judicially auctioned. 2. Yili: H1 2026 net profit of 5.759 billion yuan, down 20.02% year-over-year. 3. ST Pawa: Zhang Bao indicted for alleged duty embezzlement. 4. Anzheng Fashion: Shareholder holding over 5% received investigation notice. 5. Dingxin Communication: Wang Tianyu and Yuan Zhishuang plan to reduce holdings of up to 3.00% and 0.32% respectively.