Gold has achieved three consecutive years of strong gains: rising over 13% in 2023 to close above $2,000 per ounce, climbing more than 26% in 2024 with a yearly high near $2,790, and accelerating further in 2025—spot gold reached $4,500 per ounce by late December.
As of 10:35 AM Beijing time on December 24, spot gold traded at $4,506.28, breaching the $4,500 mark after surpassing $4,450 on December 22, quickly setting a new all-time high.
Despite a brief dip to $4,486.58 on December 23 following stronger-than-expected U.S. Q3 GDP growth (4.3%, the fastest pace in two years), gold resumed its upward trajectory, breaking $4,500 by 7:35 AM on December 24.
Gold has now posted annual gains for three straight years, with each year’s increase significantly outpacing the last, signaling an accelerating bullish trend.
Other precious metals also demonstrated strength. Silver hit $72.008 per ounce, up over 140% year-to-date, while spot palladium and platinum reached record highs of $1,882.67 and $2,348.61, respectively. Palladium crossed $1,800 on December 22 for the first time since January 2023, surging over 100% in 2025, while platinum exceeded $2,000 for the first time since 2008, gaining more than 120% this year.
Ye Qianning, a precious metals analyst at GF Futures, noted that while Fed officials remain cautious, larger rate cuts under the new chair and quantitative easing expectations continue to support precious metals.
Gold’s 70%+ rally in 2025 follows a 13% gain in 2023 and 26% in 2024. CITIC Securities highlighted that November’s softer U.S. CPI (2.7% YoY vs. 3.1% expected) boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, lifting gold and other metals. After the CPI release on December 18, spot gold briefly jumped to $4,374.68 before settling with a 0.8% weekly gain.
Analysts attribute the surge to abundant liquidity, supply constraints, and rising strategic demand for raw materials, including tariffs that exacerbate regional shortages. Huatai Futures added that the Bank of Japan’s rate hike, already priced in, had minimal market impact and no bearish effect on metals.
Goldman Sachs observed that falling U.S. rates have spurred private investors—previously net sellers via gold ETFs—to compete with central banks for limited reserves. Haitong International reported Q3 2025 gold demand was driven by investment, jewelry, and central bank purchases, with global ETF holdings up 222 tons and bar/coin demand exceeding 300 tons for four straight quarters. Central bank buying slowed slightly to 634 tons but remained robust at 220 tons monthly, up 28% sequentially.
Institutions believe $4,500 is not the peak. Goldman forecasts gold could rise 1.4% for every 1-basis-point increase in U.S. portfolio allocations, reaching $4,900 by December 2026. JPMorgan is more bullish, citing tariff uncertainties and strong ETF/central bank demand, projecting $5,055 by end-2026, partly fueled by new Chinese insurance capital.
China’s regulatory approval for 10 insurers to invest in gold in February 2025 could inject up to RMB 200 billion ($28 billion), per CICC estimates. Ongoing central bank purchases are expected to support prices, with a World Gold Council survey showing over 90% of central banks plan to increase reserves—a record high. JPMorgan expects 755 tons of central bank buying in 2026, below recent peaks but well above pre-2022 averages.
However, some remain cautious. The WGC outlined three 2026 scenarios: a 5%-15% rise if rates fall and the dollar weakens; a 15%-30% surge if geopolitical risks spike; or a 5%-20% drop if yields and the dollar rebound, dampening investor appetite.
