​芒格真的卖了阿里？

芒格真的卖了阿里？

e公司2022-04-15

芒格辞职的时间是3月28日，而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告，显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里，对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说，芒格的继任者有足够的时间，把仓位砍掉一半。这种可能性，我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。作为沃伦·巴菲特一生的搭档，出生于1924年的查理·芒格的另一个身份，是每日期刊公司（Daily Journal）董事长。从1977年53岁上任，到2022...

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北纬1度线
·2022-04-19
[財迷] [財迷] [財迷]
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HCBICE
·2022-04-17
[財迷]
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BP小林
·2022-04-17
[財迷]
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1
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淋淼淼
·2022-04-16
Ok
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矢量之毅
·2022-04-16
朦朧中的問號
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彭镜哲
·2022-04-16
雖然有可能，但是可能性或許很低。芒格雖然卸任董事長但仍留在董事會，董事會成員只有1名新人，就是剛出任臨時CEO和董事長的Steven，其他董事會成員和高管層都是Daily Journal的老人，很難想象因爲1個新人的加入（即便是董事長）就能做出這麼大的決策變動。況且從4季度的10q來看芒格目前的整個組合浮盈超過1倍，再考慮他的長期業績以及聲譽，董事會表決賣阿里很可能也是1:4的投票結果。較有可能的是把阿里的美股轉換成港股。從10q來看，13F持倉報告有1/3是未披露持倉，或許港股不要求披露。當然也有可能是發現買錯了而割肉，但是2月16日還表態支持3月31號就賣了，這種可能性有點低。
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边牧佩
·2022-04-16
閱
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2
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北纬1度线
·2022-04-16
[財迷] [財迷]
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haiwei183
·2022-04-16
look
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嘞撸虎7
·2022-04-16
閱
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Youn7276
·2022-04-16
Ok
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海星辰
·2022-04-16
除非阿里沒賺錢我才賣出。
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3
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DaisyDeng
·2022-04-16
[捂臉]
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MyKhoo
·2022-04-16
K
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PoorColin
·2022-04-16
這app盡產廢話，這些花時間寫文章的小編能有啥利益呢
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Peter H
·2022-04-16
好
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yong168
·2022-04-16
賣了......[噴血] [捂臉]
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康康的
·2022-04-16
好
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笨笨Sun
·2022-04-16
Good
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康康的
·2022-04-15
好
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Ali?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb4f1894f393c510f899e501bbfdd2d","symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"芒格辞职的时间是3月28日，而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告，显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里，对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说，芒格的继任者有足够的时间，把仓位砍掉一半。这种可能性，我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。作为沃伦·巴菲特一生的搭档，出生于1924年的查理·芒格的另一个身份，是每日期刊公司（Daily Journal）董事长。从1977年53岁上任，到2022年98岁辞职，芒格在这个职位上忙碌了45年。作为巴菲特的搭档，芒格的投资方法虽然也是正宗的价值投资，但是在细节上和巴菲特不尽相同。简单来说，芒格的投资风格就是持股更加集中，对估值不是很看重，但对企业长期前景比较关心。这种投资方法，导致投资组合的短期波动更大，同时长期收益率可能也更高。由于巴菲特并没有参与每日期刊公司的投资，因此从每日期刊公司的投资头寸上，人们往往能对芒格的股票投资一探究竟。不过，花有重开日，人物再少年。再好的投资职业生涯，也终究有结束的一天。2022年3月28日，98岁高龄的芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务。然而，就在两周以后的4月11日，市场上爆出了一个大新闻：每日期刊公司在2022年一季度，卖出了50%的阿里巴巴ADR（美国存托凭证）持股，出现大幅亏损。于是，芒格大幅卖出亏损股、98岁芒格兵败阿里、芒格廉颇老矣尚能饭否，如此这般的标题，立即充斥了资本市场。但是，芒格真的卖了阿里吗？发生了什么？2021年一季度，芒格主导下的每日期刊公司，首次买入阿里巴巴ADR。随后，阿里巴巴股价一路下跌，从2021年一季度的250美元附近，一直跌到了2022年一季度的100美元附近。在几乎直线的下跌中，每日期刊公司在2021年三季度和四季度加仓了阿里巴巴。随后，在2022年2月的每日期刊公司年会上，芒格夸赞了阿里巴巴公司，说它是合适的投资标的，投资这个公司让他感到舒适。但是，到了2022年3月28日，由于某种未公告的原因，芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务，仅继续担任公司董事。到了4月11日，每日期刊公司公告显示，截至2022年3月31日，公司所持有的阿里巴巴ADR，仅有之前持仓的一半。两种可能那么，芒格真的卖了阿里巴巴吗？细心的读者会发现，这件事其实有两种可能。供图：赵乃育第一种可能，是芒格确实老糊涂了，在股票大幅亏损后就减仓了。我们不能否定这种可能，毕竟智慧的芒格自己就曾经说过，“不要迷信那些优秀的人，再优秀的人都有犯错的时候”。要知道，即使是拿破仑也曾打过败仗。这第一种可能，我们将它称为“芒格犯傻了”。但是，在第一种可能之外，还有一种可能，会让我们以为自己看到的“芒格犯傻了”，完全不是事情的真相。细心的读者一定已经发现，从以上描述的时间线里，芒格辞职的时间是3月28日，而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告，显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里，对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说，芒格的继任者有足够的时间，把仓位砍掉一半。这第二种可能性，我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。那么，美国市场的流动性，支持这种“3天砍仓一半”的交易吗？根据每日期刊公司披露的数据，其持有的阿里巴巴ADR，在减仓之前最高达到60万份，在2022年一季度末则为30万份，减持了30万份。对于3天30万份的减持量，阿里巴巴的ADR交易量能够容纳吗？在2022年一季度，阿里巴巴ADR的日均成交量，是3212万份。而在芒格卸任以后的3个交易日（3月29日到31日），总成交量是8768万份。做过交易的人都知道，对于如此巨大的交易量，想要在3天里减持30万份，易如反掌。所以，“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能性，是完全存在的。芒格犯傻了？每日期刊公司为什么减仓阿里巴巴，背后的原因到底是“芒格犯傻了”还是“每日期刊公司变了”，除非有每日期刊公司或者芒格自己的声明，否则这件事也许会永远成为一个难解之谜。从主观上，我个人更偏向“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能，因为“芒格犯傻了”不符合常理。我很难相信一位一辈子聪明、目光长远的投资者，居然在如此行事近百年以后，会突然变成一个“2月份还说看好公司、3月份就卖出股票”的人。但是，根据现有的公告，我也没有证据完全否定“芒格犯傻了”的可能性。但是，为什么在新闻发生以后，许多人会立即相信“芒格犯傻了”？这里面有两个原因，第一是人们不细致，没有发现芒格辞职日期和公告日期之差（尽管只有3天）。第二个原因，则更加深刻。对于许多人来说，价值投资所倡导的“目光放长远、不要看短期”的理念，是和他们喜欢投机的爱好相违背的。但是糟糕的是，巴菲特、芒格这些价值投资者不停的赚钱，同时投机又很难带来长期收益。这时候，聪明的人会放下自己的投机，跟随价值投资的脚步。但是对于那些放纵自己感受的人来说，他们更愿意相信自己的投机是对的、价值投资的理念才是错的。在这时候，“芒格犯傻了”的新闻，恰好迎合了这些人的心理：价值投资的理念不对，我应该继续投机才是正道。可以说，这是一场恰到好处的心理按摩。看见的就是真的？每日期刊公司减持阿里巴巴ADR，当这件事被粗心的人们第一眼看到时，他们立即相信自己的判断“芒格犯傻了”，而没有仔细思考另一种可能“每日期刊公司变了”。在这里，人们错误地认为，“我看到的就是真的”。但是，看到的并不一定是真的。在中国的资本市场上，我曾经亲身经历过另一次所见并非真相。那次经历，真相比芒格卖阿里更加隐晦：从公开的信息，我们甚至看不到真相存在的可能。在2007年大牛市到2008年大熊市的转换中，我认识的一位价值投资者，居然没有在2007年市场极其昂贵的时候，做出太多的减仓操作，以至于在2008年损失惨重。根据公告，他一直是基金的基金经理。那么，2007年牛市的顶点那么贵，上百倍PE的股票比比皆是，作为重视估值的价值投资者，他怎么会不卖呢？实际上的情况，比公告显示出来的更加复杂。这位投资者虽然是投资经理，但是他的领导——也就是公司的投资总监和总经理，却喜欢越级指挥他的投资决策。结果，2007年到2008年的交易，其实大多根本不是出自他的本意。所以说，在资本市场上，当我们以为自己看清楚了一个事件、一张财务报表、一个公告的时候，一定要长个心眼，问问自己这件事合理吗？如果答案是否定的，那么即使我们自己看到了某件事，也不一定代表我们就看清了事情的真相。不过，人毕竟是依靠感官体验世界的，“眼见为实”的思想深深刻在我们的基因里。连中国历史上的圣人孔子，都曾经感叹“看到的事情居然不是真的”。这里，就让我们来看一个《吕氏春秋》中记载的故事。有一次，孔子和弟子们在列国之间穿行时，倒霉找不到粮食吃，上顿接不上下顿，七天都没有饭吃。正在这时，孔子弟子中品德第一的颜回，不知道从哪里找来了一点米。大家很开心，颜回就拿着米去做饭。结果，颜回一个人忙做饭，饭快熟的时候孔子正好路过，看到颜回从锅里自己捞饭吃。在儒家的礼仪中，这样“自己先吃不管大家”的行为，是非常不道德的。按理说，这样的事情不会发生在以品德著称的颜回身上啊？但是，这又是孔子亲眼所见，怎能不真呢？不过，大家毕竟都饿了好多天，也许颜回也守不住自己的道德准绳，先吃为快了？等到吃完饭，孔子委婉地问颜回是怎么回事，这才知道事情的真相。原来，颜回煮饭的时候，发现一块煤灰飞到了饭里。把这块沾了灰的饭扔了吧，实在可惜，可是端出来给大家吃吧，又会让人糟心。于是，颜回干脆自己把脏的那块饭拿出来吃掉。没曾想，正好给路过的孔子看见。得知事情原由后，孔子大为感叹：“所信者目也，而目犹不可信。所恃者心也，而心犹不足恃。弟子记之：知人固不易矣。”我们眼睛看到的不一定是真的，心里想明白的不一定是对的，我们要牢记，把真相搞明白实在是太难了啊！假作真时真亦假，无为有处有还无。作为一代价值投资大师，芒格给人们留下过许许多多睿智的思想。对于这些思想，他经常喜欢说一句总结性的话：“我的剑只留给能挥舞它的人。”现在，当面对“芒格犯傻了”和“每日期刊公司变了”两个可能的真相时，我亲爱的读者，你是怎样想的呢？究竟哪一种想法，才能让我们挥舞起芒格的剑呢？","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9088870505,"gmtCreate":1650333623548,"gmtModify":1676534698913,"author":{"id":"3577005617035851","authorId":"3577005617035851","name":"北纬1度线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4e2bd60feda0f7eb2d2f34c6b4dc130","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3577005617035851","idStr":"3577005617035851"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷] 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