Driven by a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, the US entering an interest rate cutting cycle, and continued gold purchases by central banks worldwide, international gold prices repeatedly hit new highs in 2025, with record-breaking surges becoming particularly frequent towards the year-end. The annual cumulative increase was approximately 70%, marking the strongest yearly performance since 1979.
In a recent article, Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported that State Street Global Advisors, the world's fourth-largest asset manager, anticipates that strategic capital reallocation and geopolitical factors could propel gold prices to $5000.
OCBC foreign exchange strategist Huang Jinglong also noted that the gold price rally reflects a superposition of structural, fundamental, seasonal, and sentiment-driven demand. He stated, "Historically, gold has often outperformed other assets during monetary policy easing cycles. We are optimistic that the upward trend in gold prices will continue into 2026."
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Wang Suiqin said that since early December, momentum-driven and speculative funds have been the primary forces pushing gold and silver prices higher. A confluence of factors, including low year-end market liquidity, market expectations for prolonged US interest rate cuts, a weakening US dollar, and a resurgence of geopolitical risks, has collectively driven precious metal prices to new historic highs. Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, he believes gold prices could advance towards the $5000 per ounce level, while silver prices have the potential to rise to around $90.
Analyzing from a supply and demand perspective, ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey pointed out that growth in gold mining supply is typically slow and relatively inelastic. Global gold production has remained fairly stable since 2019. She mentioned, "In practice, even if supply increases to some extent, its impact on gold prices is likely limited. Gold demand is driven more by macro factors, including real yields, US dollar movements, central bank buying, and investment fund flows; changes in mining supply rarely exert significant downward pressure on prices."
