巴菲特二季度投资巨亏，反映出很多问题

格隆汇2022-08-08

作者：陈肖股神翻车了。二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司营收761.8亿美元，同比增长10.2%，略超市场预期；运营利润92.8亿美元，同比增长了38.7%。但由于投资和衍生品出现巨亏，导致其二季度净亏损了437.55亿美元，而在去年同期，它的净利润是280.94亿美元。这车，翻得确实的有点大了。在今年6月，伯克希尔的股价一度出现持续异常大暴跌，远差于美股几大指数，背后是市场在对其所持有的数个头部投资标的...

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Comment（16）

Nicole_L
·2022-08-08
樹大根深！
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kellywei
·2022-08-08
B
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双儿666
·2022-08-08
人家是用時間換金錢
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第N次大变革大分流
·2022-08-08
二季度誰不虧啊
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雷萨K
·2022-08-08
說的很對，確實老了，不接受反駁
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1
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一头小蛮牛
·2022-08-08
看全年
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David8king
·2022-08-08
作者應該先把錯別字改正了在發佈，這是對老虎網站和所有投資者的一種尊重，也直接體現了作者的水平和嚴謹。
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猛逃
·2022-08-08
小偏才是老生常談呢吧[疑問]
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余大嘴他大爷任正非
·2022-08-08
先看看我們A股吧。
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Jacky J
·2022-08-08
一個可笑至極的文章，用一個季度的成敗去評判60多年經歷了戰爭和多次金融危機的世界第一投資大師巴菲特，就好比小學生評判研究生高等數學做錯了，不如我認識的初中生！
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Fold Replies
- 揭人不揭短:
  钱应该是亏在了买石油的股票上面？西方石油?
  2022-08-08
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- 灌饼高手00:
  不过巴菲特确实亏损了，想看他出丑的人比较多
  2022-08-08
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- 哎呀呀小伙子:
  你要理解，很多人是为了蹭流量而说这个事情
  2022-08-08
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自由人飞翔
·2022-08-08
我還是看好股神，畢竟疫情還在，還有俄烏戰爭
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喵呜喵
·2022-08-08
這種評論太膚淺了！
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冰之语
·2022-08-08
木頭姐這一年的回撤你看到了嗎？投資風格都不同
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2
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价值投机者888
·2022-08-08
標題黨哪裏都有
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十八里店吴彦祖
·2022-08-08
這種破文章除了吸引人眼球，還會幹什麼
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3
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Paggie
·2022-08-08
閱
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href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/543895><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：陈肖股神翻车了。二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司营收761.8亿美元，同比增长10.2%，略超市场预期；运营利润92.8亿美元，同比增长了38.7%。但由于投资和衍生品出现巨亏，导致其二季度净亏损了437.55亿美元，而在去年同期，它的净利润是280.94亿美元。这车，翻得确实的有点大了。在今年6月，伯克希尔的股价一度出现持续异常大暴跌，远差于美股几大指数，背后是市场在对其所持有的数个头部投资标的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/543895\">Source 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problems","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82847fc1fbac1f559030d0bc9a2a2929","symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9},"content_text":"作者：陈肖股神翻车了。二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司营收761.8亿美元，同比增长10.2%，略超市场预期；运营利润92.8亿美元，同比增长了38.7%。但由于投资和衍生品出现巨亏，导致其二季度净亏损了437.55亿美元，而在去年同期，它的净利润是280.94亿美元。这车，翻得确实的有点大了。在今年6月，伯克希尔的股价一度出现持续异常大暴跌，远差于美股几大指数，背后是市场在对其所持有的数个头部投资标的由于股价持续大跌而担心该股公司的投资收益会在二季度出现大幅回撤。如今证实结果却是如此。大概来看，伯克希尔的业绩翻车其实符合预期，但如果结合当前美国已经全球经济形势变化，以及巴菲特二季度一系列投资操作看，有很多值得思考探讨的地方。二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资和衍生品净亏损533.8亿美元，其中股票帐面亏损高达668.6亿美元。持仓方面，截至6月30日，公司总投资的公允价值约69%集中在苹果（1251亿美元）、美国银行（322亿美元）、可口可乐公司（252亿美元）、雪佛龙（237亿美元）和美国运通（210亿美元）。但二季度，这些重仓股都基本出现大幅下跌，苹果股价跌超21.63%，美国运通跌逾25.46%，美国银行跌24%，雪佛龙跌近11%，只有可口可乐在二季度逆势上涨了2.22%，其他持仓股大部分也不同程度地跟随大市下滑。最终，其股票投资组合账面价值从3月底的3910亿美元降至3280亿美元。在二季度，巴菲特的运营利润92.8亿美元中，范畴涵盖集团拥有的保险、铁路和公用事业等业务，除了保险因为通货膨胀和二手车价格上涨导致修理和更换受损车辆的成本增加导致承保损失为4.87亿美元外，铁路、能源和公用事业板块因为通胀转嫁成本，反而实现了增长。但值得注意的是，巴菲特二季度抛售了23亿美元的股票，仅花了62亿美元用于购买的新股票（大部分用在了增持西方石油）），对比一季度511亿美元的买买买，是在非常明显的防守，甚至让人感觉到对股市的看淡。巴菲特这种操作，即使不是对未来股市看淡，也是对当前股市的价格认为没有性价比的默认。尽管巴菲特在新新闻稿中呼吁大家不要过度在意季度波动，把眼光放长远点，但当前的各种宏观形势下，投资者的信心很难提起来。投资都是基于标的基础业务业绩，以及对未来的预期，但所投资的标的市值规模越大，就越与经济周期契合。尤其是当它的业务已经大到全球化的时候，肯定也会受全球经济形势的影响。巴菲特之所以一直坚持跟着美国国运做投资，而美国也确实是因为从二战以来其中虽然经过几轮金融委危机波折，但总体确实还是非常强势在增长，美国的企业不仅长期享受到了本土经济和技术发展突飞猛进下的各种红利，还得益于与美元资本的全球输出，去吃到了经济全球化浪潮更大的时代红利。所以美国股市全球最强，苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、微软等万亿美元市值巨头也是吃到了全球化红利才有如此巨大增长。比如现在巴菲特的持仓市值近7成都是集中在那几个全球化巨头中：苹果的美国本土营收仅有1/3出头，全球业务已经是它的大头（欧洲占了1/4，大中华地区占了近1/5，日本及其他亚太地区为15%左右）；可口可乐的北美地区业务仅有月1/3，国际其他地区占了2/3;雪佛龙的美国本土业务占比56%，国际业务占了44%；美国运通的国际业务占比超过2成，美国银行的在国际业务也有13%的占比。这些企业，除了美国本土金融外，都是已经深深与全球经济直接祸福相依，休戚与共。在当前形势看，现在全球经济形势出现两大特点，一是在2020年疫情冲击引发的海量货币超发潮在美国率先进入加息周期后，全球经济变得更加脆弱，越来越多国家重新陷入衰退期，二是地缘政治问题频发，逆全球化愈演愈烈，对经济发展持续造成冲击。比如，近几年来，欧洲不断针对美国科技巨头各种惩罚措施，而俄乌局势之后，美国企业全面撤出俄罗斯，其中也包括苹果和可口可乐，对它们来说不仅是业务的收缩，还有在俄资产的可能亏损。在这浪潮下，这些业务遍及全球的巨头，即使还没有进入收缩阶段，也有逐渐失去相当部分全球业务增量空间，起码短期会有这种风险。而目前看来，无论是货币收缩，还是地缘政治紧张局势，在短时间内还未见到可出现转机的可能，意味着未来一段时间，全球经济依然会有非常大的压力，进而意味着这些全球巨头的未来业务业绩，还存在下行风险。苹果的最新一期财报，营收仅同比增长1.9%，净利润下滑了10.6%，除了iPhone手机业务略微增长2.8%外，Mac和IPad业务开始下滑。如今苹果的总市值已经超过了2.6万亿美元，市盈率接近30倍，这意味着其每年要维持极大规模的营收和利润才能支撑得起当前以及未来的估值水平。但目前可以看到，它的增速越来越减小和放慢，再也难呈现其在大举全球化时的迅猛。即使它还可以靠不断的产品创新，和加大其他经济落后国家的渗透去维持增长，但这样的难度确实也是越来越大。可口可乐的逻辑也差不多如此，随着全球多个股价的新式饮料崛起，越来越多的竞争对手开始熟悉新的打法，对可口可乐的市场份额会加大侵蚀。实际上，尽管可口可乐的股价在不断上涨，但其营业收入从2012年之后就开始不断下滑，近年虽然止住了跌势，但营收规模依然没有回到10年前的水平。此外，总的来看，巴菲特的投资中除了苹果外，依然还是传统经济为主，这些传统企业巨头肯定也是会受周期影响。尤其是石油，他大手笔押注雪佛龙和西方石油，之所以引起很多热议，原因是石化能源的短期与未来的格局，都难再被一致看好。2021年至今，西方石油的股价大幅上涨离不开国家油价被不断推高，尤其是俄乌战争之后，国家油价大幅增长给它带来巨额的收益。另一个大幅上涨的原因在于，西方石油在把赚到的钱对之家股份大量回购，西方石油此前发出一项30亿美元的回购计划，截至截至8月1日，其已回购了11亿美元的股票，其中约一半在7月份回购，另一半在第二季度回购。迅猛增长的业绩和大额的回购，西方石油的股价肯定跟着上涨。此外，西方石油在最近几个季度的策略是利用其充足的自由现金流来偿还债务，并且通过加大分红方式把现金花出去，而不是去加大油气项目的投资开发。这种方式短期确实对股东有极大的吸引力，但从长远看，也是对未来信心不足，不敢贸然扩产的表现。这是传统能源行业周期的必然规律，但另一个影响因素在于，全球经济下行加剧，欧佩克也有增产去应对摆脱俄罗斯能源依赖带来的冲击。但俄罗斯的出口并不会因此大量压缩，它只是转移出口对象，最终，在全球经济下行导致传统能源总需求减少而地缘政治影响导致总供应产能实际增加的畸形平衡下，未来油价下行的可能性会更大。如果未来油价下行，主营在美国本土的西方石油肯定也不能幸免影响，依然也会面临新的营收增长压力，成长性会受到很大的影响。而截至6月底，伯克希尔持有西方石油公司1.817亿股，占19.5%的股份。尽管对于此投资，巴菲特已经赢得先手，但如果一直持有，未来是否还能赢下去，其实也有很多投资者心存质疑。孰对孰错，我们也很难看清楚，其实如果伯克希尔不是有股神的名头而是一个普通的投资机构，可能投资者早就选择远离它了。结语越老的人，就往往越容易陷入经验主义，巴菲特确实是身经百战经验丰富的投资老手，但从这些年一系列的投资动作和风格上看，他确实是很老了。这种老，体现在只敢做投资自己熟知的传统领域，对新兴领域看不懂，也很难适应，所以他除了苹果之外，所持有的大多数都是传统领域，而大大错过了亚马逊、谷歌、微软、特斯拉、英伟达等超级成长公司。诚然，跟着美国经济长期稳健增长，以及长期放水带来的通胀进而带来的收益增长，守住那些传统行业的龙头确实也能实现稳健且不错的收益，但它在新兴领域所错过的机会成本代价，也确实是无比巨大的。这种代价，可以从迅速崛起的女股神木头姐身上体现出来。换句话，如果股神足够适应时代和认知清醒，去花多一点资金去配置新兴领域，那么伯克希尔哈撒韦的市值高度，将远不止于此，甚至突破万亿美元市值，也早就不在话下了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9904030284,"gmtCreate":1659954986550,"gmtModify":1703476339054,"author":{"id":"3568809434693461","authorId":"3568809434693461","name":"Nicole_L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6693db75e35e38dd7e6c673738552b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568809434693461","authorIdStr":"3568809434693461"},"htmlText":"樹大根深！","listText":"樹大根深！","text":"樹大根深！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904030284","repostId":1146545010,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9905742155,"gmtCreate":1659946736579,"gmtModify":1703476281708,"author":{"id":"4088123236957940","authorId":"4088123236957940","name":"kellywei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7a94e79547f6a966cbbd46a75b1fbd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088123236957940","authorIdStr":"4088123236957940"},"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905742155","repostId":1146545010,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":685781227,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