According to three informed sources, the latest U.S. intelligence report warns that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the short term. The reason is that Tehran's control over this critical global oil artery is its only substantial leverage for exerting pressure on the United States.
The assessment indicates that Tehran will likely continue to restrict passage through the strait and drive up energy prices, aiming to force U.S. President Trump to quickly seek an "exit strategy" for the nearly five-week-long conflict, which is unpopular among American voters.
The report also notes that the war, initially intended to destroy Iran's military power, has instead increased Iran's regional influence by demonstrating its ability to threaten this crucial waterway.
Trump has consistently attempted to downplay the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of global oil trade. Last Friday, he suggested on Truth Social that he could directly order the U.S. military to clear the passage: "Given a little more time, we can easily open the Strait of Hormuz, take the oil, and make a lot of money."
However, analysts have long warned that military action against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, would be costly and could draw the United States into a protracted ground conflict.
The International Crisis Group's Iran Project Director, Ali Vaez, stated: "The U.S. intended to prevent Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, but instead handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption." Vaez added that Tehran understands that influencing global energy markets by controlling the strait holds even greater power than nuclear weapons.
Trump's position on U.S. military involvement in reopening the strait has been inconsistent. On one hand, he has made ending the Iranian blockade a precondition for a ceasefire. On the other hand, he has urged Gulf oil-dependent nations and NATO allies to take the lead in reopening it.
An anonymous White House official said Trump "firmly believes the strait will be opened soon" and has clearly stated that Iran will not be allowed to control shipping through the strait after the war. However, the official also mentioned that Trump has stated other nations have "far greater stakes" in preventing the blockade than the United States.
The Central Intelligence Agency has not yet responded to requests for comment.
Since the war began on February 28, initiated by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the outgunned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has used various methods to make commercial shipping through the strait hazardous and uninsurable, including attacking civilian vessels and laying naval mines. Iran has effectively blockaded the strait, pushing international oil prices to multi-year highs and causing fuel shortages in many nations reliant on Gulf oil and gas.
Rising energy costs are exacerbating U.S. inflation risks, creating a political liability for Trump, who faces challenging election prospects as the Republican party prepares for the November midterm elections.
The intelligence warning is clear: Iran will not readily relinquish this leverage. The three sources unanimously confirmed the latest assessment that Iran will not give up this advantage in the near term. They declined to reveal which agencies produced the assessment. One source stated plainly, "Iran has tasted the power and leverage that comes with controlling the strait and will not easily let it go."
Some experts judge that even if the war ends, Iran is unlikely to relinquish control over the strait, as it will need funds for reconstruction, and charging fees to commercial vessels is a significant potential revenue source.
Former CIA Director Bill Burns indicated, "Tehran will seek to retain the leverage it has regained through disrupting shipping." He pointed out that Iran will use its stranglehold on the strait to secure long-term deterrence and security guarantees in any peace agreement with the U.S., as well as to obtain direct material benefits, such as transit fees, for post-war reconstruction. "This makes the current negotiations extremely difficult."
