Tesla Motors (TSLA.US), the electric vehicle leader that investors have categorized under "artificial intelligence" and "humanoid robot" sectors, has seen explosive stock performance since September, surging an incredible 40% compared to early August. According to Wall Street analysts, the underlying logic behind this rally isn't driven by fundamental factors, but rather by AI and robotics hype combined with technical and capital flow dynamics.
Dan Levy, a senior equity analyst at Wall Street financial giant Barclays, has even compared Tesla Motors to the meme stock frenzy that occurred in late 2020 and 2021. In a media interview this week, Levy stated that this round of gains is attributed to retail investors (especially long-time Tesla supporters and Musk believers) refocusing on AI supercomputing-powered FSD and Optimus humanoid robots, along with extreme excitement surrounding the electric vehicle manufacturer's upcoming annual shareholder meeting. Additionally, capital flow factors such as options leverage, passive buying, and relative market strength rotation are also contributing.
The market has shifted focus from currently negative vehicle sales and gross margins to the "future bull curve" of FSD (Full Self-Driving) commercialization, Robotaxi, Optimus humanoid robots, and energy storage (Megapack), providing space for very high valuation premiums. Therefore, in the eyes of "Musk believers" and long-term Tesla bulls, this surge will drive Tesla Motors' stock price to new all-time highs.
However, Barclays analyst Dan Levy directly calls Tesla Motors an "OG meme stock," emphasizing that its "overemphasis on AI/robotics narrative + strong retail investor base" often causes the stock price to decouple from traditional fundamental expectations. On the capital side, relative rotation against other strong performers in the Magnificent 7 has brought momentum-driven bullish options enthusiasm through this relative strength switching.
**OG-Level Meme Stock**
"This stock's recent surge isn't just about the meme phenomenon craze. The reality is... it could even be called a veteran-level old-school meme stock (i.e., OG meme stock)," Barclays analyst Levy stated in the interview.
Levy emphasized that Tesla Motors' incredibly powerful retail following and "Musk believers" have continuously driven its stock performance since September under rising capital momentum, and this performance is often completely disconnected from traditional fundamentals, requiring only a strong bullish technical signal to drive this OG-level meme stock higher.
The analyst also pointed out that the stock's 180 times price-to-earnings ratio based on 2026 earnings is "nonsensical," and suggested that rather than using traditional market valuation metrics, it would be better to compare Tesla Motors stock with high-risk speculative assets like Bitcoin (BTC-USD).
Regarding Tesla Motors' stock outlook, the analyst remains bearish, although he believes Tesla Motors' stock price remains strong under multiple narratives and capital catalysts, it will inevitably see significant corrections soon.
Levy also highlighted other technical and capital factors affecting Tesla Motors' stock movement, including its long-term underperformance relative to other "Magnificent Seven" (MAGS) stocks driving technical rebounds, and the sudden heating up of bullish options trading activity bringing strong momentum.
He added that Elon Musk's return to business and the renewed deepening interaction between him and Tesla Motors is an important factor in the company's recent strong performance, noting that many of Tesla Motors' bullish forces are linked to "Musk believers."
"What we're seeing is that, at least currently, Musk is more involved in running Tesla Motors," Levy stated, mentioning Musk's public market accumulation moves and the board's proposed compensation package aimed at ensuring the CEO focuses his energy on driving Tesla Motors' performance growth trajectory.
Levy emphasized that Tesla Motors remains the "ultimate narrative stock," especially compared to future strong growth prospects, current automotive sales are just a "fading story."
"The strong future growth model based on AI and robotics is the core support point for bulls, which excites them," he explained. He added, "Due to the power of retail bullish narratives and excitement surrounding Elon Musk, OG meme Tesla Motors today receives this recognition, while other meme companies may not get the same level of retail recognition."
**"Tesla Super Bull" Predicts Tesla Stock Surge Far from Over**
Dan Ives, a senior analyst at Wedbush known as the "Tesla super bull," recently raised Tesla Motors' target price significantly to $600 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating. Ives' core logic is similarly based on future prospects rather than electric vehicle delivery volumes, mainly focusing on Tesla Motors' accelerating AI development and upcoming key breakthroughs.
As of Monday's U.S. stock market close, Tesla Motors' stock price closed at $443, having reached an all-time high of $488.54 in December 2024.
Ives pointed out that the market severely underestimates Tesla Motors' transformation potential—AI supercomputing-based FSD autonomous driving and robotics technology will become core strategic pillars by 2026, and Tesla Motors' "game-changing factors" in AI and robotics will directly determine the company's future direction.
Ives' team calculates that the AI-based FSD autonomous driving sector alone will contribute at least $1 trillion in market value to Tesla Motors, and under the Trump administration's upcoming term, Tesla Motors' core FSD projects are expected to be accelerated, as the federal regulatory "spider web" that has entangled the company for the past few years is expected to be quickly dismantled.
Ives' team believes that in a bull market scenario, Tesla Motors' market value could reach $2 trillion by early 2026, and potentially rise further to $3 trillion by year-end with large-scale production of autonomous driving and robotics.
Just as Tesla Motors' "Master Plan 4.0" was released, Musk reiterated the strategic position of the robotics business at Tesla Motors. He stated that scaling FSD and Optimus will be the most important matters, as approximately 80% of Tesla Motors' future value will come from Optimus humanoid robots.