According to analysis from Huatai Securities, 2026 is poised to be a pivotal year for the global industrialization of Level 4 autonomous driving.
The core argument is that on January 13, 2026, the US House of Representatives began deliberating the "SELF DRIVE Act of 2026." This bill proposes to raise the FMVSS exemption cap from 2,500 vehicles to 90,000 vehicles—a 35-fold increase—and to establish federal preemption. With rare bipartisan consensus, the decade-long legislative stalemate is expected to be broken. Concurrently, Waymo's weekly orders have reached 450,000, and the Tesla Cybercab is slated for mass production in April, indicating that the US Robotaxi commercial sector is entering a phase of scale expansion. The view is that 2026 is a critical year for global L4 autonomous driving industrialization, driven by the clarification of the US federal legislative framework, the implementation of China's L3 pilot programs, and the acceleration of L4 commercialization. Investors are advised to focus on core players in the autonomous driving industry chain.
The increase in the exemption cap, combined with federal preemption, is expected to resolve the core obstacles to mass production of Robotaxis. The draft "SELF DRIVE Act of 2026" under review directly addresses the main barriers to the large-scale deployment of Robotaxis. Firstly, the exemption ceiling per manufacturer is raised from 2,500 vehicles per year to 90,000, significantly lifting the production cap for Robotaxis that do not comply with Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS), such as those without steering wheels or pedals. Secondly, a "deemed approved" mechanism is introduced, meaning that if NHTSA does not make a decision within one year of receiving an exemption application, it is automatically approved; previously, there was no set timeline for exemption approvals, leaving applications from companies like GM Cruise and Ford pending for years without a response. Thirdly, the bill clarifies that federal regulations take precedence over state laws in areas like ADS design, manufacturing, and performance standards, ending the fragmented regulatory landscape across 50 states and clearing obstacles for cross-state, large-scale deployment.
The legislative timetable is becoming clearer, with the probability of enactment in 2026 significantly increasing. Federal autonomous driving legislation in the US has repeatedly stalled since 2017: the first version of the SELF DRIVE Act, which passed the House unanimously that year, failed in the Senate due to disputes over federal preemption and liability attribution, and versions in 2020 and 2021 also did not pass. This fourth version of the bill marks the first instance of substantive bipartisan consensus, being jointly introduced by Republican Latta and Democrat Dingell. Key upcoming milestones to watch include: the Q1 2026 committee markup session and vote; the high likelihood of the bill being incorporated into the 2026 "Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act" for advancement; and subsequent Senate review and presidential signing. If progress is smooth, the bill could complete the legislative process in the second half of 2026.
The US Robotaxi sector is entering a scale expansion phase, with the industry chain ecosystem maturing rapidly. Leading companies are reporting rapidly improving operational data, and with expectations of regulatory easing growing clearer, the US Robotaxi industry is transitioning from technical validation to a stage of scale expansion. Waymo's weekly paid orders reached 450,000 in December 2025, with over 14 million trips completed for the full year 2025 (a 200% year-on-year increase); it aims to achieve 1 million weekly trips by the end of 2026 and plans to expand its operational footprint from 10 to 30 cities, supported by a new vehicle integration plant built in partnership with Magna in Mesa, Arizona, to ramp up production capacity. Tesla's Robotaxi test fleet reached 139 vehicles by the end of 2025, and its dedicated Robotaxi model, the Cybercab (without a steering wheel or pedals), is expected to begin mass production in April 2026. At CES 2026, NVIDIA launched the Alpamayo open-source VLA model family (including a 10-billion parameter inference model, a simulation framework, and a 1,700-hour dataset); companies like JLR, Lucid, and Uber have already announced adoption, accelerating L4 capability development for OEMs and mobility platforms and driving the industry from isolated breakthroughs toward ecosystem collaboration.
Investment Recommendation: Robotaxi Momentum in both China and the US Accelerates Industrialization. The global L4 autonomous driving sector is at a critical juncture for large-scale commercial deployment, with resonance between policy and industry trends likely to drive an inflection point. Domestically in China, by the end of October 2025, Baidu's Apollo Go had accumulated over 17 million service trips and launched in 22 cities globally, while Pony.ai and WeRide are accelerating overseas expansion into markets in the Middle East and Europe. Beyond Robotaxis, other L4 application scenarios—such as Robovan, mining, ports, Robotruck, and Robosweeper—are also accelerating their deployment. It is recommended to focus on core players within the autonomous driving industry chain.
Risks include the Senate review process for the bill falling short of expectations; autonomous driving safety incidents triggering tighter regulations; and escalating Sino-US geopolitical risks.
