The precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors have experienced continuous sharp gains recently, with high market participation enthusiasm. It has been noted that to prevent market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued a notice on December 26, advising the market to manage risks effectively. The notice indicated that given the complex and volatile international situation and the significant price swings in non-ferrous and precious metals, relevant entities should take appropriate measures to remind investors to strengthen risk prevention, invest rationally, and jointly maintain stable market operations.
With the New Year holiday approaching, the SHFE also released the "Notice on Work Arrangements for the 2026 New Year Holiday Period" on the same day, adjusting the price limit margins and trading margin ratios for gold and silver futures contracts.
According to the notice, starting from the close of settlement on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, the adjustments are as follows: the price limit margin for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 15%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions to 16%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions to 17%. For the silver AG2602 contract, the price limit margin remains at 15%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions stays at 16%, and the ratio for general positions remains at 17%.
Furthermore, after trading on Monday, January 5, 2026, starting from the settlement after the first trading day without a one-sided market, the price limit margins and trading margin ratios will be adjusted as follows: for gold futures contracts AU2601, AU2602, AU2603, AU2604, and silver futures contracts AG2601, AG2602, AG2603, AG2604, the existing price limit margins and trading margin ratios will remain unchanged; for all other futures contracts, the price limit margins and trading margin ratios will revert to their previous levels.
It has been observed that since December, the SHFE has issued multiple risk warnings and control measures targeting the precious metals market to guide rational participation: on December 8, a risk warning specifically for the precious metals market was issued; on December 10, adjustments were made to the trading margin ratios and price limit margins for related silver futures contracts; on December 22, trading limits and transaction fees for related silver futures contracts were adjusted...
As the precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors continue their upward trend, market volatility risks are also accumulating. Gu Fengda, Chief Analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that the exchange's move to raise trading margin ratios and price limit margins for related products is a precautionary measure in response to the complex and changing international market conditions. Particularly during the sensitive period around the year-end when market liquidity can shift abruptly, the exchange's multi-pronged approach aims to enhance market resilience, prevent sharp fluctuations caused by short-term concentrated capital inflows and outflows, guide investors to participate rationally, and ultimately maintain robust market functioning.
Beyond the precious metals sector, the non-ferrous metals segment, led by copper, has also shown strong performance recently, with both LME copper and SHFE copper prices hitting record highs. Regarding this, Wu Kunjin, Head of the Non-Ferrous Metals Group at Minmetals Futures Research Center, explained that this round of copper price strength is driven by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors. Fundamentally, the impact of production accidents at major overseas copper mines has exceeded expectations, leading to continuous downward revisions in global copper mine supply forecasts, and the benchmark annual treatment and refining charges for copper concentrate for 2026 have dropped to zero. Simultaneously, anticipated US tariffs are attracting global refined copper flows to the US, tightening supply expectations in markets outside the US, thereby pushing global copper prices higher. Macro-economically, the Federal Reserve's consecutive interest rate cuts and the restart of its US Treasury bond purchase program have fueled expectations of looser market liquidity, further boosting copper prices. However, given the substantial short-term gains in copper prices, trading difficulty and market risk have increased concurrently; investors should participate rationally, strictly control positions, and manage risks effectively.
From the perspective of Wang Yanqing, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at CITIC Securities Futures, the core factors influencing the short-term trends of precious and non-ferrous metals have not changed significantly. Although long-term supportive factors such as "de-dollarization" objectively exist, the recent rapid market rally has already over-traded these factors. The heightened trading sentiment simultaneously poses potential risks to stable market operations. He indicated that the series of risk control measures introduced by the SHFE are designed to cool down trading fervor, guide all parties towards rational participation, thereby maintaining normal market order and ensuring the effective functioning of the futures market.
