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Apple's Resilience Is Unjustified - Here Is Why

seekingalpha2022-11-03

SummaryApple stock has held up surprisingly well in 2022 compared to a very weak broader market, largely due to the company's continued strong earnings reports.I'll highlight the reasons for Apple's ...

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Alvinlwq
·2022-11-04
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t1981
·2022-11-04
what will be considered a good price?
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Kunle Kashomey
·2022-11-04
Good
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LEESIMON
·2022-11-04
‌[爱心] ‌Nice
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DodoOne
·2022-11-04
Thank you for sharing. It's a great read
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·2022-11-04
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AlanChong
·2022-11-04
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Tian Ping
·2022-11-04
Very stable
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Like and comment please
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I think Apple is dead money at best for the foreseeable future.I am not currently invested in the stock, but if I were, I would at least consider selling it, assuming I held it in a tax-deferred or tax-exempt account.Introduction And Investment ThesisLast week, Apple surprised on the upside in an otherwise very bad week for tech investors. Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META) andAmazon (AMZN) all disappointed Wall Street, while the tech giant best known for its iPhone franchisereportedsolid earnings and quarterly revenue of $90.1 billion, slightly beating analyst estimates and up 8.1% year-over-year. iPhone and Mac sales were up 9.7% and 25.4% in a high-inflation environment, respectively, suggesting that Apple is indeed one of the companies with real pricing power. On a year-over-year annual basis, Apple also shined where others looked lackluster. Total fiscal 2022 net sales were up 7.8%, thanks largely to strong growth in iPhone (+7.0%), Mac (+14.2%) and services (+14.2%). From this perspective, Wall Street's positive reaction hardly seems surprising.I have had Apple on my watch list for quite some time, and I continue to be amazed how the stock has largely defied the bear market of 2022. The main pillars of my investment thesis in Apple are:Apple seems to have an unending ability to design and manufacture hardware and software that is not only functional, but also highly intuitive, elegant and very appealing. Even though they are mass products, Apple's gadgets enjoy the ranks of status symbols.Recognizing that selling hardware does not scale well, the company has created a deep ecosystem through its app store and the many experiences and productivity enhancements it offers. In this way, Apple retains consumers and ensures high switching costs in an industry otherwise characterized by high competition.Where others have managed to develop either standout smartphone technology (e.g., Samsung's Galaxy series) or a smartphone operating system (Google's Android), Apple has been able to take advantage of the synergies of top-quality hardware and software offerings.The company's balance sheet is absolutely solid and will benefit in a rising interest rate environment, as it has $145.5 billion in marketable securities (mostly long-term) - not counting the $23.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents - and only $120.0 billion in debt.It is easy to like Apple as an investment. However, when I find nothing but positive things about an investment, it usually gives me pause. As a dyed-in-the-wool value investor, I am very careful not to overpay for my investments, especially when a company is firing on all cylinders - there is a thin line between a value trap and a world-class company that is simply too expensive. In this article, I will discuss Apple's normalized free cash flow, my expectations for future growth and my thoughts on what could limit the growth story. I will value Apple from a discounted cash flow basis, making sense of what the market has currently priced into the stock. In closing, I present my rationale for refraining from buying Apple at this time.Apple Is Rightly Touted As A Major Cash Flow MachineWhen it comes to the question of why Apple stock should command a premium valuation, many investors point to the company's strong cash flow. I do not disagree, and in fact, Apple's cash flow is one reason I would like to own shares in the company.My regular readers know that I rely only on normalized free cash flow (nFCF), which means I adjust conventional FCF for working capital movements, stock-based compensation expenses, non-cash impairment and restructuring charges (if routinely observed), and acquisitions (if the company relies on growth through acquisitions). Those interested in the approach can take a look at my detailededucational articlepublished last month.Acquisitions, impairments and restructuring charges are very rarely seen at Apple. This is due to the company's conservative and disciplined approach to acquisitions, which deserves praise at a time when other companies are squandering cash left and right in sometimes desperate attempts to diversify into new growth areas. However, as with many tech companies (see myarticleon this topic), stock-based compensations (SBCs) are significant and trending upward. This is due, in part, to the way stock-based compensation is accounted for and it should be kept in mind that adjusting free cash flow for SBCs is a relatively conservative measure. Figure 1 shows Apple's stock-based compensation since fiscal 2012 as a percentage of operating cash flow (OCF) normalized for working capital movements. Even though significant, this form of employee compensation is relatively modest at Apple, averaging 8% of normalized OCF since fiscal 2016, compared to Alphabet, for example (see myrecent article).Figure 1: Apple’s stock-based compensation expenses (own work, based on the company’s fiscal 2011 to 2022 10-Ks.Apple’s normalized free cash flow, as I use it for my assessment of the company’s future cash flow potential, is shown in Figure 2. Clearly, the pandemic acted as a huge tailwind for the company, as is underlined by nFCF growth rates of +23%, +43% and 13% in fiscal 2020, fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022. Apple’s cash-generating power is underlined further when comparing these growth figures to the company’s sales growth numbers for the same periods: +6%, +33% and +8%.Companies that report unbelievably strong earnings are potentially suspect of managing their results, and therefore it seems reasonable to assess the quality of Apple’s cash flow. Excess Cash Margin (ECM) is a measure of the relative growth rates of operating income and OCF and enables the detection of potential earnings problems or accounting shenanigans. In the case of Apple, the ECM moved in a reasonably narrow window of -2.4% and +2.0% in the last ten fiscal years and without a notable up- or downward trend. An upward trend in ECM would signal that earnings are growing slower (or declining faster) than OCF, while a downward trend indicates that earnings are either growing faster or declining slower than OCF.Figure 2: Apple’s normalized free cash flow – conventionally obtained FCF is on average 10% higher, largely due to stock-based compensations (own work, based on the company’s fiscal 2010 to 2022 10-Ks.Reasons For Apple's Outstanding Free Cash Flow Growth - And Why It May Not Be SustainableApple's free cash flow growth since the pandemic has been spectacular. So, the really important question is: Where did the growth come from, and can it continue? Because ultimately, the share price is only an unromantic reflection of a company's future cash flows, discounted to today at an appropriate rate.Strong Brand Stickiness, Pricing Power - But Discretionary Products After AllAs already mentioned, the pandemic acted as a tremendous tailwind for Apple. During these difficult times, consumers learned to love Apple's software ecosystem even more, as well as the large number of accessories that only reach their full potential in combination with an Apple iPhone, iPod or Mac computer. Thanks to the increasingly strong lock-in effect and the seemingly unending desire to own these very elegant and highly intuitive pieces of hardware, Apple is able to exert pricing power on consumers even in times of high inflation. However, it is important to remember that an iPhone or Mac computer is ultimately largely a discretionary product, and the purchase of the next iteration can be postponed in the event of an economic downturn. As will be shown later, a recession is likely not currently priced into Apple stock.Geographical Concentration RisksInvestors should note that Apple generated nearly a quarter of its fiscal 2022 sales in Europe, and it seems reasonable to expect that the eurozone, unlike the United States, will have a much harder time overcoming high inflation rates, in part due to the substantial debt of southern European countries, which would likely become insolvent if interest rates were raised at a pace similar to that in the United States. Of course, however, keeping inflation in control by raising interest rates is an incomplete line of thinking.Nevertheless, the difficult situation of the European Central Bank and its increasing emphasis on approaches reminiscent of a planned economy (e.g.,Green Dealand the resultingTaxonomy Regulation) are preparing the bloc for continued high inflation rates and thus lower disposable incomes.A deep recession in Europe is also likely to impact Apple's supply chain, as the company relies on several hundred suppliers in Germany (767 in 2018 according toHandelsblatt).Of course, Apple's global position also makes it vulnerable to foreign exchange rate headwinds, as the company ultimately reports its earnings in U.S. dollars. However, I believe this is a well-known aspect that applies to all truly global companies. There is only so much a company can do to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations, and I consider this a simple cost of doing business when operating on a global scale.Sustainability Of App Store MarginsSoftware developers have noticed the seemingly unstoppable growth of Apple's installed base, which probably recently passed the2 billion mark. Apple's growth keeps developers motivated to continue to create new apps for iOS, which has the added advantage of very limited device configurations compared to the numerous devices running Android. I expect Apple to benefit from this for the foreseeable future, as long as the company does not make any glaring hardware design mistakes and stays true to its intuitive software architecture. However, it should not be forgotten that Apple faces challenges related to its somewhat aggressive monopolistic behavior in connection with its app store. It therefore seems prudent to keep an eye on Apple's subscription-based sales. I view it as largely positive that Apple's (high-margin) service revenue has increased from 11% of total revenue in fiscal 2016 to nearly 20% in fiscal 2022. However, improved app developer compensation and increased regulatory scrutiny could deal a blow to this important segment, thereby impacting free cash flow.Working Capital ManagementAnother aspect to consider is working capital management. Cash is king, and companies with pricing power benefit enormously by being able to enforce their payment terms on both their suppliers and their customers. In addition, global giants like Apple benefit significantly from highly efficient inventory management. Less cash tied up in working capital accounts (receivables, inventories) leads to higher free cash flow. By minimizing the time to collect payments from customers and maximizing the time to pay suppliers, a company can benefit significantly from cheap (or free) credit. This is in particular important in a rising interest rate environment. A - highly desirable - negative cash conversion cycle (CCC) results when a company can collect and retain payments from customers for a certain time, that actually belong to suppliers (e.g., app developers).Apple is a shining example in this regard and has kept its inventory days and days sales outstanding (DSO) very tight while expanding its days payables outstanding (DPO) quite significantly between fiscal 2013 and fiscal 2019 (Figure 3). However, presumably due to ongoing supply chain issues and the relocation of certain suppliers, DPO declined in recent years, resulting in a weakening but still excellent cash conversion cycle (CCC) of -62 days in fiscal 2022.Improved conditions for app developers, as hypothesized above, could also put pressure on Apple's working capital management, thereby impacting free cash flow. Conversely, supply chain issues will eventually be resolved, improving the working capital management of Apple's hardware segment.Figure 3: Apple’s days sales and payables outstanding, inventory days and cash conversion cycle (own work, based on the company’s fiscal 2012 to 2022 10-Ks.Possible Signs Of Underinvestment And The Course Toward Mean ReversionIt is also worth noting Apple's capital expenditures, which typically range from $9 billion to $13 billion per year. Relatively speaking, capital expenditures have been on a downward trend since fiscal 2016, as shown in Figure 4. While some might argue that Apple is underinvesting, I would not overstate this aspect at this point in time (see below). While capital expenditures as a percentage of OCF continue to decline, it should be remembered that this is largely due to strong OCF growth and only to a small extent a result of lower actual investment in the business.Figure 4: Apple’s capital expenditures as a percentage of normalized operating cash flow (own work, based on the company’s fiscal 2011 to 2022 10-Ks.Apple's key long-term free cash flow growth driver is innovation. Apple has innovated in both hardware and software, for example by introducing its ownprocessorsin its iPhones and Mac computers, a smart watch (Apple Watch), and its own payment service (Apple Pay). However, Apple has not introduced any groundbreaking new devices like theiPhoneor the iPod in a long time. I do believe that at some point, the users so accustomed to innovations will be saturated as it becomes increasingly difficult to pack truly groundbreaking new features into the devices currently available.At some point, Apple will have to come up with a new technological gadget - whether it is some sort of wearable, self-driving car, or technologically integrated piece of furniture. I am sure Apple will come up with something at some point, but it is also true that the race to find the next hot innovation is extremely competitive and capital-intensive, especially as it relates to autonomous driving. From this perspective, it does not seem unrealistic to assume that Apple will have to invest more and more cash flow into the business at a percentage equal to or above the historical average, as shown in Figure 4.What Is Currently Priced Into AAPL Stock?Several aspects underlying Apple's excellent free cash flow growth have been discussed, as well as potentially limiting factors. With the release of the fiscal2022 10-Ka few days ago, we now have a clear view of Apple's recent cash flows, which provide a basis for valuing the stock.First, let me share my FAST Graphs-inspired chart in Figure 5, which shows Apple's nFCF per share versus split-adjusted price per share. Clearly, Apple's stock price and free cash flow decoupled sometime in 2020, when investors began pricing huge growth rates into the stock. While it is entirely possible that Apple will continue to be able to grow its free cash flow at a high rate going forward, I simply believe that the likelihood of FCF remaining stagnant for at least a couple of years is relatively high for the reasons outlined above. Apple stock could be dead money for the foreseeable future, or worse, it could move closer to its long-term FCF trend, suggesting ample downside and a current fair value in the $100 region.Figure 5: Apple’s normalized free cash flow per share compared to its split-adjusted share price; note that nFCFs have been aligned with fiscal year ends in late September (own work, based on the company’s fiscal 2010 to fiscal 2022 10-Ks and the daily closing stock price of AAPL)Next, I evaluated Apple stock from a discounted cash flow (DCF) perspective - after all, a company is only worth the sum of its future cash flows, discounted to today at an appropriate rate. For Apple, I believe a cost of equity of 9.5% is appropriate, taking into account current long-term government bond rates and a 5% equity risk premium. For the DCF analysis below, I have used Apple's average nFCF for fiscal years 2021 to 2022 as the baseline cash flow, which may even be a somewhat optimistic assumption given the threat of a recession.Long-term visibility of revenue (and thus cash flow) is very difficult, which is also underscored by analyst estimates. More than 20 analystscoverApple on a two-year basis, expecting year-over-year revenue growth rates of 3.3% and 5.2% for fiscal years 2023 and 2024, respectively. After that, the number of analysts drops to 9. From fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2027, only 2 analysts cover Apple, and for the later years, there is only one analyst - a particularly optimistic one - who expects year-over-year sales growth rates of 18%, 9%, 9%, 10%, and 10% between fiscal 2028 and 2032. I am not in a position to provide plausible long-term estimates, but I consider anything higher than 5% p.a. over the next five years to be unduly optimistic for the reasons outlined above. Therefore, in the illustration of the DCF model in Figure 6, I have used a growth rate of 5% for the next five years, 4% for the subsequent five years, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.Figure 6: Cash flows underlying Apple's discounted cash flow analysis; terminal value not shown (own work)Summing the discounted cash flows and dividing the result by the current number of weighted average diluted shares outstanding yields a fair value of about $100, which is well in line with the backward-looking valuation in Figure 6.Put differently, to justify the current price of $150 per share, Apple would need to grow its free cash flow at a rate of 10% per year over the next five years (is this a realistic assumption in the context of a likely economic downturn?), followed by a growth rate of a similarly high 8% p.a. until year 10, and a terminal growth rate of 5%.Personally, I find it difficult to see such growth rates as realistic for the reasons mentioned above. In order to achieve such rates, Apple will likely be forced to diversify into other business areas, which is associated with considerable uncertainties, as its current business model will simply lack the addressable market at some point due to size.However, some may object that both valuation approaches are based on free cash flow and therefore represent an isolated approach. This is true, and conventional multiples-based approaches can also provide a good view on a company's valuation. Figure 7 compares ten-year averages of earnings- and revenue-based multiples with current values. It is evident that Apple is significantly overvalued on every metric, including its dividend yield (currently 0.6% versus a five-year average of 1.4%). Finally, it should also be remembered that these valuations are the product of what is likely the strongest bull market in recent history, giving cautious investors pause for thought. Morningstar currentlyratesApple at two stars and believes the stock is 15% overvalued. It is worth noting that the investor services firm views Apple as a company with only a narrow economic moat.Figure 7: Historical valuation of Apple stock, note that the price-earnings-growth ratio (PEG) has scaled by a factor of 10 for the sake of visibility (own work)Concluding RemarksThere is no question about it - Apple is a world-class company with a deeply rooted ecosystem, an ever-growing, religious-like following, and very strong management. The company is one of the few with real pricing power. However, with all the justified optimism, Apple markets largely discretionary products.Investors expect Apple to continue to be able to grow free cash flow by double digit, or at least high single digit rates, for the foreseeable future. However, the growth story has its limits. Apple will likely reach its limits at some point because the addressable market is saturated, so it will need to pursue other growth opportunities. Exploring new opportunities comes with execution risks and requires significant capital expenditures, which have been steadily declining since fiscal 2016 in relative terms. Moreover, Apple is already an extremely well-managed company that will struggle to increase free cash flow through improvements in working capital management - an often-overlooked growth driver of several less well-managed companies.As I have shown, Apple is significantly overvalued assuming more down-to-earth growth expectations. The market has been merciless on other tech stocks such as Amazon, Meta Platforms and Alphabet. So it is only reasonable to assume that Apple stock will also take a serious beating should the company fall short of expectations in any of the coming quarters. For example, what if the all-important holiday shopping season turns out slower than expected, capital expenditures rise significantly, or Europe faces a deep recession?If I owned the stock, I would at least toy with the idea of selling it, as it is obviously overvalued. This can easily be seen in the decoupling of the share price from free cash flow since 2020 and the decoupling from the overall market in 2022. Of course, this assumes that taxes do not need to be factored into the equation.Of course, none of these changes the fact that Apple is an extremely well-run company with a deeply entrenched ecosystem and an almost religious following. 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