In 2025, global TV shipments and retail market inventory cycles showed some misalignment. The first quarter saw strong brand shipments driven by China’s subsidy expectations and North American tariff policy fluctuations. The second quarter witnessed a YoY decline as brands tightened inventory management. Demand normalized in Q3 after inventory adjustments, while Q4 shipments exceeded expectations due to World Cup-related stockpiling and semiconductor price hikes, despite weak holiday sales performance.
According to Sigmaintell, global TV shipments are projected at 221 million units in 2025, down 0.7% YoY. For 2026, while the World Cup, North American tax rebates, and India’s GST reforms may support demand, soaring semiconductor costs (e.g., memory chips) will pressure production, likely leading to a 0.6% YoY shipment decline. However, cost pressures may drive product upgrades, boosting average screen sizes, with global TV shipment area expected to grow 2.3% YoY in 2026.
**Market Consolidation Amid Rising Costs** The AI computing boom and memory supply shortages have spiked DDR4 and eMMC prices, a trend Sigmaintell predicts will persist through 2026, challenging TV brands’ profitability. Leading brands, backed by supplier agreements, will gain cost advantages and expand market share, while smaller players face consolidation risks.
**Brand Strategies: From Scale to Value** Top 10 TV brands are pivoting from volume growth to value enhancement, leveraging supply chain resilience, global reach, and R&D. Their combined shipments may rise 1.7% YoY in 2026.
- **Samsung**: Shipments are forecast at 35.27 million units in 2025 (flat YoY). Its strategy focuses on ecosystem integration ("hardware + AI + content + services") and premium innovation, including OLED and Micro-RGB Mini LED. Partnerships with BOE aim to balance panel supply. - **TCL**: Shipments may grow 5.4% YoY to 30.41 million units in 2025, driven by premium large-screen models and Mini LED tech. It targets North America and Europe while expanding in Southeast Asia and Latin America. - **Hisense**: With 29.26 million units shipped in 2025 (+1.4% YoY), it prioritizes overseas growth, RGB-Mini LED tech, and partnerships with BOE and TCL CSOT. - **LG Electronics**: Focused on profitability, it will deepen OLED leadership and explore RGB-Mini LED for LCD premiumization, while diversifying its supply chain. - **Xiaomi**: Shifting from low-price competition, it aims for premium breakthroughs via Mini LED and in-house chips, leveraging its ecosystem and overseas expansion. - **Skyworth**: Expanding abroad through acquisitions (e.g., Funai’s North America business) and focusing on Mini LED/oversized TVs.
**Outlook: Value Over Volume** In a saturated market, brands must prioritize core tech (e.g., self-developed chips, Mini LED/OLED advancements), supply chain agility, and regional strategy optimization to stimulate upgrades and sustain industry value growth.
