Google Q1 Earnings: Fears Way Overblown

seekingalpha2022-04-27

SummaryAlphabet reports impressive top-line growth rates.A discussion of market temperaments. How certain ideas go into and out of fashion.Alphabet's Search moat remains untouchable. Investors need to...

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AHLONG
·2022-04-27
Buy buy buy!!!
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vincentheng8
·2022-04-27
Al in now!
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How certain ideas go into and out of fashion.Alphabet's Search moat remains untouchable. Investors need to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503891-google-q1-earnings-fears-way-overblown\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GOOG","symbol_name":"谷歌","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503891-google-q1-earnings-fears-way-overblown","article_id":"1150170891","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150170891","pubTimestamp":1651052862,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryAlphabet reports impressive top-line growth rates.A discussion of market temperaments. How ce","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"translate_title":"谷歌第一季度收益：担忧过度","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryAlphabet reports impressive top-line growth rates.A discussion of market temperaments. How certain ideas go into and out of fashion.Alphabet's Search moat remains untouchable. Investors need to remember this.Meanwhile, Cloud revenues were up an impressive 43% y/y. All this at approximately 20x this year's EPS figures.As always, happy to discuss my thesis further in the comments section.Chris Hondros/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported Q1 results that missed on the bottom line. Why? Because it's investing for growth. That mantra that was so welcomed by investors in 2020 and 2021, the fact that is now so out of favor isincredible.Reading through the history of financial markets, you read about markets having themes that go into and out of favor, such as pricing stocks on book value or sales. To read it, it's one thing. To live through it, it's quite another.We can now clearly recognize that financial markets are in a new period. The investment strategies that worked so well this past 10-plus years are now out of favor.That being said, looking objectively, this was a very strong report from Alphabet. And at 20x P/E, it's unimaginable just how cheap Alphabet has become. Very much worth considering.Revenue Growth Rates Still Sizzle, Even NowAlphabet revenue growth rates, GAAP revenuesIf I told you back in 2019 that in early 2022 Alphabet would be reporting nearly $70 billion in revenuesper quarter, with currency-adjusted non-GAAP revenue growth rates of 26% y/y, you would struggle to believe me.You would say that's such an unbelievably strong quarter. But what if I told you that after reporting this quarter, Alphabet's stock would have sold off on earnings. You would be confused, right? Welcome to the present.Why Alphabet? Why Now?What is Alphabet's core business? Search.Investors clung to the fact that YouTube's revenues were only up 15% y/y. So what? Nearly 60% of Alphabet's revenues comes from its Search business. This is a highly profitable business that has no serious competition. And guess what?Even now, despite its size and global penetration, it still grew by 24% y/y. This fact alone should give investors a reason to be bullish here. Despite all the noise in the markets right now.What about Alphabet's impact from Russia and Europe as a whole? Alphabet noted during the call that Russia only generates 1% of its revenues.However, Alphabet did acknowledge some brands reducing some spending, particularly on YouTube of late. It doesn't seem to be the case that Alphabet's business has been as impacted as Snap (SNAP), for example.Alphabet Tech Conglomerate FocusNext, despite coming late to the cloud wars, Alphabet's Cloud business was up 43% y/y in GAAP revenues. If this doesn't speak volumes of Alphabet's technical abilities, I don't know what does.This should show investors that Alphabet is not a one-trick pony. Alphabet is a laser-focused tech conglomerate that knows how to seed projects and grow them. And the Cloud business is just one demonstration of this.In fact, consider this, investors are welcoming the fact that Microsoft's (MSFT) Q3 2022 reported that Azure grew by 46% y/y in GAAP revenues.If you keep in mind how much easier it is for Microsoft to distribute its cloud platform relative to Alphabet, after all, most enterprises already pay Microsoft some sort of fee every year.Thus, the task of getting enterprises to sign up for Google Cloud Platform is meaningfully more challenging than Azure. Yet, Alphabet is succeeding on this front.Capital Return to ShareholdersAlphabet has over the past 12 months repurchased $52 billion worth of shares. This capital return was high enough to not only offset management's stock-based compensation but to actually bring down the total number of shares outstanding by 2.1% y/y.Very few companies that embark on a share repurchase program are actually able to offset the generous stock-based compensation packages managements get in a year. This is a rare instance.How much has this massive capital repurchase program dented Alphabet's balance sheet?Consider that in last year's Q1 2021 Alphabet carried $121 billion of net cash. And this time around, Alphabet finished the quarter with a net cash position of $119 billion. Essentially, its net cash position y/y is unchanged, despite returning to shareholders approximately 3% of its market cap.What about now? This quarter Alphabet announced a new, bigger share repurchase program of $70 billion. Given that Alphabet has not been hesitant in aggressively repurchasing shares at higher prices, I fully suspect that we should expect this share repurchase program to be completed within 12 months.This leads me to discuss its valuation.GOOG, GOOGL Stock Valuation - At 20x EPSAlphabet is priced approximately at 20x this year's earnings. For a business that has an unquestionable moat around its operations and no other business that comes even close to rivaling it, as a value investor, it's difficult to be anything but bullish.We can discuss all day the macro concerns. But if I was a shareholder here, despite the after-hours reaction evidently being negative, I would be very content here.The Bottom LineAlphabet is now in correction territory.This is so difficult to fathom. The world is perhaps a lot more fragile than we had deluded ourselves into believing.This is what I know, stocks come and go out of favor.But if you find a business that's reporting premium growth rates of higher than 20% CAGR, and you are asked to pay around 20x P/E, and that business has no ''realistic'' competitor anywhere in sight, this doesn't take a genius to figure out the right course of action. Whatever you decide, good luck and happy investing.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9060036111,"gmtCreate":1651068675016,"gmtModify":1676534843891,"author":{"id":"3573867170923993","authorId":"3573867170923993","name":"AHLONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e278677344d99653c443547c0c9bad0","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573867170923993","authorIdStr":"3573867170923993"},"htmlText":"Buy buy buy!!!","listText":"Buy buy buy!!!","text":"Buy buy buy!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060036111","repostId":1150170891,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9087723711,"gmtCreate":1651060788363,"gmtModify":1676534842052,"author":{"id":"3577147024133490","authorId":"3577147024133490","name":"vincentheng8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177fda2264ab2bd83ccfc55eb70c57a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577147024133490","authorIdStr":"3577147024133490"},"htmlText":"Al in now!","listText":"Al in now!","text":"Al in now!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087723711","repostId":1150170891,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":39,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}