To The Moon

AI unicorn Anthropic stands at a historic threshold for going public, but mounting market headwinds are injecting growing uncertainty into its plans.

According to Reuters, Anthropic, the developer behind the Claude chatbot, aims to complete its IPO by mid-November with a target valuation as high as $2 trillion, which would surpass SpaceX's $1.77 trillion listing earlier this year and rank among the largest tech IPOs in history. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires companies to publicly file their prospectus at least 15 days before launching a roadshow, meaning Anthropic's remaining window is narrowing rapidly.

At the same time, the AI sector has suffered a pronounced selloff recently — CoreWeave shares plunged roughly 30% in two weeks, while Micron dropped 17% over the past month — as doubts about the sustainability of AI spending continue to build. Several market participants said Anthropic may face pressure to delay its listing, though some analysts noted that the company's urgent need for capital could push it to stick with its original timetable. Prediction markets currently indicate about an 80% probability that Anthropic goes public within the year.

Time Window: S-1 Filing Needed by Next Weekend at the Latest

Under SEC rules, a company must publicly file its prospectus (Form S-1) at least 15 days before kicking off a roadshow. Jay Ritter, who heads the IPO research program at the University of Florida, said that if Anthropic wants to complete its listing before Thanksgiving, there is still enough time, but it is already quite tight.

Specifically, if the company sets its IPO for no later than November 24 and launches its roadshow on November 16, it would need to publicly file its S-1 by the end of next weekend.

It is worth noting that Anthropic had previously been expected to publicly disclose its prospectus shortly after Labor Day, with the market anticipating a potential listing in late September, but those plans did not proceed as scheduled.

Market Headwinds: AI Sector Under Pressure, Listing Window Narrowing

According to MarketWatch, the recent sharp pullback in AI-related stocks is a key variable that Anthropic's management must confront.

Emerging cloud computing company CoreWeave saw its shares fall about 30% over the past two weeks amid market concerns about its debt management capabilities, while memory chip giant Micron declined 17% over the past month, reflecting broad worries about the scale of AI spending and its financing outlook.

Joe Tigay, portfolio manager at Rational Equity Armor Fund, said persistent inflationary pressures and elevated energy prices are equally concerning.

"Historically, the combination of slowing growth and inflation has often been a precursor to cracks in the stock market. If these pressures continue to build, Anthropic would have every reason to stay private and wait for a better moment."

However, some voices argue that an Anthropic listing is crucial for shoring up market confidence.

Jim Lebenthal, chief market strategist at Cerity Partners, noted that the AI industry's long-term viability and business model have recently come under greater scrutiny, and the market needs a successful Anthropic IPO to prove that AI can sustain its development.

"It is reasonable to ask questions, and even reasonable to be skeptical," Lebenthal said. "But the health of the overall stock market and the health of the U.S. economy depend to a large extent on the success of the artificial intelligence industry."

Capital Needs: Going Public Is the Most Realistic Path to Raising Funds

Setting aside market sentiment, Anthropic's own urgent need for capital may be the core driver pushing it to stick with its listing plans.

Andrew Rocco, equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said the largest AI companies have shown that "they are basically willing to spend as massively as they can to win more users and try to become the dominant AI player."

He believes Anthropic will work hard to push its listing forward "because they really need that capital, especially at a time when raising money in private markets may become more difficult."

According to a Wall Street Journal report citing Anthropic's draft prospectus, the company's spending on AI computing power over the coming years could reach as high as $750 billion. At the same time, the prospectus shows that Anthropic recorded a net loss of more than $80 billion in the first half of 2026, with revenue of $16.3 billion — though that loss was primarily driven by accounting adjustments rather than deterioration at the underlying business level.

Prediction market data shows that the probability of Anthropic completing its listing within the year is approximately 80%.