To The Moon

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that the central bank is on track to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at its next meeting, stepping down from an unprecedented series of four 0.75-point rate rises aimed at combating high inflation.

Mr. Powell, in a speech Wednesday, said an overheated labor market needed to cool more for the Fed to be confident that inflation would decline toward its 2% goal.

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Because the Fed has raised rates rapidly and it takes time for those moves to influence the economy, it would make sense for officials to slow rate increases, he said at an event at the Brookings Institution. “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting,” he said.

Fed officialslifted their benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point on Nov. 2to a range between 3.75% and 4%, which is up from near zero in early March. Many officials have signaled they are leaning toward approving a 0.5-point increase at their Dec. 13-14 meeting.

Investors have been eager for evidence that the central bank would slow its pace of rate rises, andmarkets ralliedafter Mr. Powell’s remarks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.2%, or about 735 points, enough to put the index back in a bull market, defined as a 20% rise from a recent low. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note declined to 3.699% Wednesday from 3.746% Tuesday.

Mr. Powell suggested Fed officials were moving into a new phase of policy tightening in which they would try to judge just how high rates need to rise. “My colleagues and I do not want to overtighten because … cutting rates is not something we want to do soon,” he said. “That’s why we’re slowing down, and I’m going to try to find our way to what that right level is.”

Mr. Powell reviewed signs of progress on the inflation fight, including a slowdown in interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing and improving supply-chain conditions. But he said that declines in rents and goods prices might be insufficient if firms don’t slow their hiring to bring the strong demand for labor into better balance with a shortfall in the supply of workers.

Labor demand has eased some in recent months.Job openingstotaled a seasonally adjusted 10.3 million in October, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. That was down from 10.7 million in September but far exceeded the 6.1 million unemployed people seeking work in October.

The labor market “shows only tentative signs of rebalancing, and wage growth remains well above levels that would be consistent with 2% inflation,” Mr. Powell said. “Despite some promising developments, we have a long way to go in restoring price stability.”

The Fed has raised interest rates this year at the most rapid pace since the early 1980s to battle inflation that is running near a 40-year high. Officials seek to reduce inflation by slowing the economy through tighter financial conditions—such as higher borrowing costs, lower stock prices and a stronger dollar—which typically curb demand.

The U.S. economy shrank slightly in the first half of this year, but grew more briskly in the third quarter than previously estimated. Gross domestic product increased at an inflation-adjustedannual rate of 2.9%from July through September, up from an initial estimate of 2.6%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Awave of layoffshas rippled across industries such as tech, entertainment and real estate. CNN on Wednesdaysaid it is laying offemployees,DoorDashInc.said it would cut staffandAMC NetworksInc. said in a memo to employees thatit plans to lay off about 20% of its workforce.

A big question now for the Fed is how much further to raise rates. Some officials are concerned about causing unnecessary damage to the economy and labor market because it takes time for the full effects of those increases to ripple through the economy.

Other policy makers are concerned that price pressures could stay high because, despite improvements in supply chains and commodity markets, prices have picked up for more labor-intensive services.

Mr. Powell pushed back against concerns that the Fed was raising rates too aggressively by warning that allowing rapid price increases to persist could cause consumers to expect continued high inflation, making it more entrenched.

“It can’t be that we can go on for five years at a very high level of inflation and that it doesn’t work its way into the wage- and price-setting process pretty quickly. That’s a serious concern,” he said.

Mr. Powell repeated his earlier view that officials were likely to raise rates to a somewhat higher level early next year than they had anticipated in projections released after their September meeting, when most officials saw their benchmark rate rising to between 4.5% and 5%.

Mr. Powell focused part of his remarks on exploring why the share of Americans seeking work remains below its prepandemic level. The analysis carries important implications for setting interest rates because if wage pressures remain stronger in the coming years, that could lead to a period of greater volatility in wages, inflation and borrowing costs.

Mr. Powell said most of the shortfall appears to reflect older Americanswho retired earlywhen the pandemic hit the U.S. in March 2020 and from slower growth in the working-age population, which he said could reflect reduced levels of legal immigration and a surge in deaths during the pandemic.

Steps to boost workforce participation aren’t controlled by the Fed and wouldn’t be able to take effect rapidly enough to address the current bout of high inflation, Mr. Powell said.

The upshot is that Fed policy will seek to slow inflation and wage growth by reducing demand for workers, a subject that Mr. Powell addressed delicately on Wednesday. “For the near term, a moderation of labor demand growth will be required to restore balance to the labor market,” he said.

While strong wage growth “is a good thing,” he implied it is too high right now to support a return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “For wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation,” he said.

Mr. Powell said the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, likely rose around 6% in October from a year earlier, down from 6.2% in September. The Commerce Department is set to release October figures on Thursday. When stripped of volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core index likely increased around 5%, down from 5.1% in September, he said.

Separately, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that inflation could come down without broad layoffs occurring across the economy if companies slow hiring by reducing the number of unfilled jobs they are trying to fill.

The Labor Department is set to release its November employment report on Friday, which will include details on hiring, wage growth and joblessness. The unemployment ratestood at 3.7%in October.

A jobless rate between 4% and 5% would still indicate a robust labor market, Ms. Yellen said at a New York Times event. “I think we can make a lot of progress in the labor market just on the hiring...and job-opening side. I don’t think it’s necessary to see very substantial layoffs,” she added.