“苦难指数”预兆黄金和美股走势：一个向上，一个向下

金十数据2021-07-07

曾担任Fitch Solutions金融市场主管，拥有15年的全球市场分析经验的Stuart Allsopp Follow表示： “根据苦难指数来看，目前通胀水平以及失业率都在上升，但标准普尔500指数相对于黄金仍处于多年高位。这与美国前几次经济衰退的前兆非常相似，因此我预计经济大萧条历史会重演。” 什么是苦难指数？苦难指数是通货膨胀率和失业率的总和，历史上一直跟美国股票与黄金价格的比率...

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旋舞
·2021-07-07
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“苦难指数”预兆黄金和美股走势：一个向上，一个向下\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/77333><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>曾担任Fitch Solutions金融市场主管，拥有15年的全球市场分析经验的Stuart Allsopp Follow表示：\n\n “根据苦难指数来看，目前通胀水平以及失业率都在上升，但标准普尔500指数相对于黄金仍处于多年高位。这与美国前几次经济衰退的前兆非常相似，因此我预计经济大萧条历史会重演。”\n\n什么是苦难指数？\n苦难指数是通货膨胀率和失业率的总和，历史上一直跟美国股票与黄金价格的比率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/77333\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/77333","article_id":"1151513622","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9ac23bac84c629134c18540a11264a"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151513622","pubTimestamp":1625663183,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"jssj","name":"金十数据"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"苦难指数是通货膨胀率和失业率的总和，一直跟美国股票与黄金价格的比率高度相关。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jin10.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"\"Suffering Index\" omens the trend of gold and US stocks: one upward and one downward","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69884cb736b5f114cae893d3a896a8d3","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"GCmain":0.9},"content_text":"曾担任Fitch Solutions金融市场主管，拥有15年的全球市场分析经验的Stuart Allsopp Follow表示：\n\n “根据苦难指数来看，目前通胀水平以及失业率都在上升，但标准普尔500指数相对于黄金仍处于多年高位。这与美国前几次经济衰退的前兆非常相似，因此我预计经济大萧条历史会重演。”\n\n什么是苦难指数？\n苦难指数是通货膨胀率和失业率的总和，历史上一直跟美国股票与黄金价格的比率高度相关。苦难指数的计算方法是将通胀率与季节性调整的失业率相加，得出一个衡量经济滞胀程度的指标。\n相对于标准普尔500指数而言，高通胀和高失业率有利于黄金价格。\n下图显示了苦难指数与标准普尔500指数/黄金比率之间的相关性，数据可追溯到1950年代。\n\n目前的标准普尔500指数/黄金比率，已经接近人们所预期的两倍。Stuart Allsopp Follow表示：\n\n “我们在1971、1975和2000年的数据里，也曾看到两个指数之间存在如此大的差异，远高于苦难指数‘合理’的水平。”\n\n下图显示了标准普尔500指数/黄金比率相对于苦难指数的高估程度，与随后的10年年度回报比率。\n\nStuart Allsopp Follow表示，股票与黄金比率之间的关系是经常用来作投资决策的工具，他通过研究趋势发现一个结论：\n\n “有很多证据表明美国股票相对于贵金属的未来走势来说，将是长期亏损的，特别是在苦难指数可能会继续上升的情况下。唯一的好消息是，我预计黄金的表现将十分出色。”\n\n另外，分析师预计美国将继续推行宽松的政策。此前该政策的一个假设是，通货膨胀与失业率之间存在反比关系。即如果失业率很高，反映了经济的疲软，而宽松的货币政策可以降低这种疲软，但代价是得忍受持续上升的通胀率。\n分析师认为，根据美国政府目前的表现，可以预计在更多的坏消息到来前（例如通胀进一步恶化），越来越激进的货币和财政政策似乎极有可能继续下去。但这可能是一颗随时被引爆的定时炸弹。\n值得一提的是，近日富国证券也发出警告，称科技股清算的日子预计很快将到来，预计美股将大跌12%，敦促投资者获利了结。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":140414095,"gmtCreate":1625668609817,"gmtModify":1703746118238,"author":{"id":"3584243309772452","authorId":"3584243309772452","authorIdStr":"3584243309772452","name":"旋舞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac3b3bfee0d8a9e48fb5d7fb51a3a0a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584243309772452"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140414095","repostId":1151513622,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":47,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}